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Potential Thanksgiving Event


strongwxnc

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... and their snow graphic shows .5 for Asheville. So, that graphic doesn't line up to the point and click. (which it never seems to) But, regardless, maybe we will get a few flakes tomorrow.

just seeing it snow for a while tomorrow will be fun.  wow this early in the season and there has been two potential storms.  had we been a month later this storm may have been all snow.  :sled:

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Yes.  Hello!  What do we have here on the RH chart?  A nice comma head, perhaps?

 

426spyF.gif

 

 

Ive been noticing a slight trend in the models from the 0z . Keeps pushing the upper level trough axis slightly more to the east. Which would be a good thing since there wouldn't be such a downslope component as they were showing before.

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BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED

TORNADO WARNING

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL

846 AM CST TUE NOV 26 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TALLAHASSEE HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...

SOUTHWESTERN LIBERTY COUNTY IN FLORIDA...

NORTHERN GULF COUNTY IN THE PANHANDLE OF FLORIDA...

* UNTIL 915 AM CST/1015 AM EST/

* AT 844 AM CST...A DEVELOPING TORNADO HAS BEEN DETECTED BY THE

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEAR OVERSTREET...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35

MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO

DALKEITH...HONEYVILLE...WEWAHITCHKA...CHIPOLA CUTOFF...RED HILL...

WILMA...LEWIS AND KERN

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! LEAVE MOBILE HOMES AND VEHICLES FOR SAFER STRUCTURES.

GET TO THE LOWEST FLOOR AND PUT AS MANY WALLS BETWEEN YOU AND THE

TORNADO AS POSSIBLE.

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The WRF looks pretty good, but wonder what totals it's showing.  I will have the hi-res NAM in the coming 20 mins or so, but I don't think anyone west of KTRI will like it....... lol

 

I wonder if the severe activity along the gulf is going to rob moisture transport into the southern apps and this is what the NAM is picking up on?? 

Latest SREF looked similar to the NAM for the simulated radar..

It took away all of my rain today and left me with sprinkles  :angry:

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FWIW.. But its the rap model

 

Its hard to guess and foolish aswell what it will do frame by frame after. But resmembles the nam to certain extent. But maybe slightly east with the phase and more pronounce back end band?! Does look like more engery trying to dive in than what the nam and gfs shows. More vigorous with the ULL

 

Nam

nam_namer_018_500_vort_ht.gif

nam_namer_018_700_rh_ht.gif

RAP

rap_namer_018_500_vort_ht.gif

rap_namer_018_700_rh_ht.gif

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12z NAM Hi-Res has a switch over to snow for Charlotte at  hour 27 and goes into about hour 30...not a long window but comp. radar doesn't look bad. IF and a big IF the NAM verified based on radar I think we could see a dusting to an inch. 

 

Does this "comma head" precip make it any further east? Sorry, can't look at models right now and the raleighwx site appears to no longer exist.

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Does this "comma head" precip make it any further east? Sorry, can't look at models right now and the raleighwx site appears to no longer exist.

 

It does. You're probably in the same boat as CLT...maybe do a little better. I've seen this game with the NAM before though so I would rely on RAP and HRRR models. 

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Any snow before 12/25 is bouns action in this area..

I would love to see a good heavy rate for an hour or so.

12z NAM Hi-Res has a switch over to snow for Charlotte at  hour 27 and goes into about hour 30...not a long window but comp. radar doesn't look bad. IF and a big IF the NAM verified based on radar I think we could see a dusting to an inch. 

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It does. You're probably in the same boat as CLT...maybe do a little better. I've seen this game with the NAM before though so I would rely on RAP and HRRR models. 

Thanks. The WRF loop looks good, but it tends to get overexcited at times as well. Maybe we'll all see some flakes in the air at least; I got shafted both in Travelers Rest and CH for the last flurry "event."

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Big questions for triangle area today is how far west does the coastal front get. RAH just stated that Wake county may have a 15-20 degree temp range tonight. I seen that a few years back where it was in the low 50s in Raleigh but fell off to the 30s up where I live.

RAH:

THE CHALLENGE IS HOW FAR

WEST THE WARM MOIST AIR WILL SPREAD INLAND. MODEL CONSENSUS TAKES

THE COASTAL TROUGH/THERMAL MOISTURE BOUNDARY WELL PAST THE TRIANGLE

AND STOPS IT JUST SHORT OF THE TRIAD. BASED ON RADAR TRENDS...STILL

THINK THAT THIS WESTWARD MOVEMENT IS TOO FAR INLAND. HOWEVER...COULD

SEE BOUNDARY MAKE TO NEAR RDU. THUS...HAVE ADJUSTED TEMPS/DEWPOINTS

TO SHOW WARM MOIST AIR SOLIDLY COVERING THE COASTAL PLAIN-SANDHILLS

AND MAKING INROADS INTO THE EASTERN PIEDMONT. POTENTIAL TO SEE A 15-

20 DEGREE SPREAD ACROSS WAKE COUNTY WITH 40S TO AROUND 50 IN THE FAR

WEST TO THE LOW-MID 60S IN THE FAR EAST BY LATE TONIGHT.

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Big questions for triangle area today is how far west does the coastal front get. RAH just stated that Wake county may have a 15-20 degree temp range tonight. I seen that a few years back where it was in the low 50s in Raleigh but fell off to the 30s up where I live.

RAH:

THE CHALLENGE IS HOW FAR

WEST THE WARM MOIST AIR WILL SPREAD INLAND. MODEL CONSENSUS TAKES

THE COASTAL TROUGH/THERMAL MOISTURE BOUNDARY WELL PAST THE TRIANGLE

AND STOPS IT JUST SHORT OF THE TRIAD. BASED ON RADAR TRENDS...STILL

THINK THAT THIS WESTWARD MOVEMENT IS TOO FAR INLAND. HOWEVER...COULD

SEE BOUNDARY MAKE TO NEAR RDU. THUS...HAVE ADJUSTED TEMPS/DEWPOINTS

TO SHOW WARM MOIST AIR SOLIDLY COVERING THE COASTAL PLAIN-SANDHILLS

AND MAKING INROADS INTO THE EASTERN PIEDMONT. POTENTIAL TO SEE A 15-

20 DEGREE SPREAD ACROSS WAKE COUNTY WITH 40S TO AROUND 50 IN THE FAR

WEST TO THE LOW-MID 60S IN THE FAR EAST BY LATE TONIGHT.

 

Looks like we could be right on the line.

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