Thrasher Fan Posted November 26, 2013 Share Posted November 26, 2013 It's just about where it was on the 12z Nam so far. Rap seems to be doing a great job. I'd definitely follow that model over the others. It did very well with the last system that gave some mix around my area. Edit: Not sure if you meant to type 12 or 00z.. I would think 00z? Yeah 0z, been a long day. haha The back side of this is looking pretty good for a change to snow for the majority of us. Could be cold chasing though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted November 26, 2013 Share Posted November 26, 2013 Northern energy is a good bit sw through 30hrs, into southern MO - northern AR, whereas 12z had it over southern IL, you can already see the influence of that change on the 552dm isohypse over northern MS. Probably not going to change things a whole lot, maybe a more amped storm up the EC, slightly west track adjustment, unsure... Notice the new SREF is a tad different with the phase deal too. Hm. It's a bit slower or something. Hard to really tell w/ the spc site. ;/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted November 26, 2013 Share Posted November 26, 2013 I think it is safe to say that it is going to rain. A lot of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted November 26, 2013 Share Posted November 26, 2013 I think it is safe to say that it is going to rain. A lot of it. I see nothing but few sleet pellets then as WOW says lots of rain cold rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted November 26, 2013 Share Posted November 26, 2013 Northern energy is a good bit sw through 30hrs, into southern MO - northern AR, whereas 12z had it over southern IL, you can already see the influence of that change on the 552dm isohypse over northern MS. Probably not going to change things a whole lot, maybe a more amped storm up the EC, slightly west track adjustment, unsure... That adjustment looks slightly better in regard to backside NC Mtn snows. If that holds, looks like a quick thump of snow early Wed AM, then upslope snows flying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted November 26, 2013 Share Posted November 26, 2013 If trends hold for east TN, I would expect winter weather advisories and potentially WSWatches to be posted either late tonight, or early tomorrow morning. Could be a nice thump of snow for the guys on the left side of the "hill" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvegas-wx Posted November 26, 2013 Share Posted November 26, 2013 Dang, make sure your gutters are clear. Thats a lotta hydrometeors! No matter the form it is greatly needed. Forysth County NC running a two hour delay. Better safe than sorry I suppose. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Alchemist Posted November 26, 2013 Share Posted November 26, 2013 Brief shower here in Saluda NC... Froze right away at 31.5... I think I'm in the hammer zone for ice tonight .... Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted November 26, 2013 Share Posted November 26, 2013 Newest version of GSP's ice forecast: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted November 26, 2013 Share Posted November 26, 2013 Brief shower here in Saluda NC... Froze right away at 31.5... I think I'm in the hammer zone for ice tonight .... Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk Ya I think you are also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted November 26, 2013 Share Posted November 26, 2013 GSP now has a link to the Charlotte TDWR radar. It does a good job at capturing everything falling from the sky on long range reflectivity. http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ridge2/ridgenew2/?rid=CLT&pid=TZL&lat=35.292176308987244&lon=-80.98387695312499&zoom=7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted November 26, 2013 Share Posted November 26, 2013 just to report in.... it's been snowing here in Nashville for the past hour and half.... nothing heavy but it has been all snow now rain or sleet mix. Temp has dropped from 43 to 35 degrees during the time as we get some evap cooling. Should switch over to rain as the upper levels warm but wanted to give all my fellow southers east of me an update. Oh and I'm in Nashville because my adopted son was just born! So not only am I getting to see it snow I'm a dad now Congrats Amos! This is awesome news 42/15 imby as I patiently wait for the rain to begin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted November 26, 2013 Share Posted November 26, 2013 That adjustment (on the NAM) looks slightly better in regard to backside NC Mtn snows. If that holds, looks like a quick thump of snow early Wed AM, then upslope snows flying. 00z GFS was slightly better as well (compared to its previous runs) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted November 26, 2013 Share Posted November 26, 2013 Congrats Amos! This is awesome news 42/15 imby as I patiently wait for the rain to begin If it ever finds me, it'll find you soon after Had a light shower and that's it so far. Steady temps, light variable winds....I stand out there and it looks like somebody ought to be getting rain, lol. Then I look at the radar, and all that broken cover back in line to the west, and the old dread rears it's head..but no, no way this misses me, lol. Can it? Tony Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chattownsnow Posted November 26, 2013 Share Posted November 26, 2013 I'm stuck at 34 degrees. I'm surprised it's even that cold. moderate to heavy rain falling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted November 26, 2013 Share Posted November 26, 2013 Gainseville, GA, has reported three hours in a row of ZR with 32 and a wet bulb of ~31. The ZR was light for the first two hours but is now getting heavier. With this heavier rain, if the temp. doesn't warm for the rest of the night, the Gainseville area could end up facing significant icing on trees and power lines. We'll see. It is very close. Sometimes heavier rain drags down warmer air or at least warmer rain that is harder to freeze as fast. In Atlanta metro, all are above 32 although NE Atlanta has just fallen from 34 to 33. However, the wetbulb is near 33. So, it is unlikely it will fall to 32 there as CAA or dynamic cooling would be needed. But it is a close call obviously. I wonder how cold places further north like Roswell and Alpharetta are now. I bet Cumming is close to 32. Ahens is falling off now and will make it at least to 33 in my opinion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VanillaDream Posted November 26, 2013 Share Posted November 26, 2013 I am at 32.5 (was at 33/33 last hour) and its VERY close. Several wunderground weather stations around me reporting 32. I am in the Roswell area.It looks like there may be some light glazing in tops of trees...hard to tell though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VanillaDream Posted November 26, 2013 Share Posted November 26, 2013 FFC still shows me with a low of 38...hate to tell them we are already almost 6 degrees below that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thrasher Fan Posted November 26, 2013 Share Posted November 26, 2013 33.4° with Dew pt of 32° Just incredible how close this is to a massive mess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valkhorn Posted November 26, 2013 Share Posted November 26, 2013 Winter Weather Advisory issued for Knoxville. 2" or so is now forecasted for our area in terms of snow/sleet accumulation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted November 26, 2013 Share Posted November 26, 2013 Thanks for the updates in the ATL area. Gainseville warmed from 32 to 33 at 4 am, possibly in response to the heavier rain dragging down warmer air. That little rise may save that area from sig. accum. of ice on trees/powerlines. Athens/KATL have fallen to 34, while Chamblee and Marietta remain at 33 and 34, respectively. So, it would appear the Atlanta area will escape this one. However, I still wonder about Alpharetta and Cumming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valkhorn Posted November 26, 2013 Share Posted November 26, 2013 Both the 6z NAM and GFS have gotten heavier with the expected snow in East TN. Looks like up to 3" or slightly more is progged by them for Knox County. If we even got just an inch I'd be happy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Suncat Posted November 26, 2013 Share Posted November 26, 2013 Just arrived at work 15 minutes ago. Temperature is a balmy 38 with overcast sky. And I don't care... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted November 26, 2013 Share Posted November 26, 2013 30 here with freezing rain in asheville, plus nws gsp saying 2 inches of snow and 90 percent chance tomorrow. hope this is the start of a snowy or at least a couple of good snow storms winter. imagine what this storm would have been if the setup would have been just a little better. would have talking about snow in feet not inches if the cold high pressure would have been up around ohio. we were close, maybe next time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted November 26, 2013 Author Share Posted November 26, 2013 And on the fourth try, gsp gets it. 35 and all rain here in the southern foothills of nc Newest version of GSP's ice forecast: Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncjoaquin Posted November 26, 2013 Share Posted November 26, 2013 30 here with freezing rain in asheville, plus nws gsp saying 2 inches of snow and 90 percent chance tomorrow. hope this is the start of a snowy or at least a couple of good snow storms winter. imagine what this storm would have been if the setup would have been just a little better. ... and their snow graphic shows .5 for Asheville. So, that graphic doesn't line up to the point and click. (which it never seems to) But, regardless, maybe we will get a few flakes tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted November 26, 2013 Share Posted November 26, 2013 Thanks for the updates in the ATL area. Gainseville warmed from 32 to 33 at 4 am, possibly in response to the heavier rain dragging down warmer air. That little rise may save that area from sig. accum. of ice on trees/powerlines. Athens/KATL have fallen to 34, while Chamblee and Marietta remain at 33 and 34, respectively. So, it would appear the Atlanta area will escape this one. However, I still wonder about Alpharetta and Cumming. Go here, zoom in to Atlanta, turn on station markers Oh yea... the link: http://www.daculaweather.com/current/misc/google-maps-radar/4_google_radar.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted November 26, 2013 Share Posted November 26, 2013 URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGENATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN501 AM CST TUE NOV 26 2013...FIRST POTENTIAL EARLY SEASON SNOWFALL ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEEBEGINNING LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT....AS A WEATHER SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES TODAYAND TONIGHT...MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO BE USHERED IN ACROSSMIDDLE TENNESSEE. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO FALL INTOTHE MIDDLE 30S BY THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. A RAIN...SLEET...ANDSNOW MIXTURE IS EXPECTED INITIALLY...CHANGING OVER TO ALL SNOW BYTONIGHT...WITH THE POTENTIAL OF AROUND ONE INCH OF TOTAL SNOWFALLACCUMULATION ACROSS LOCATIONS GENERALLY WEST OF THE CUMBERLANDPLATEAU REGION. FOR LOCATIONS ACROSS THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAUREGION...ESPECIALLY THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE UPPERCUMBERLAND...TOTAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF UP TO THREE INCHESWILL BE POSSIBLE. THIS SNOWFALL...MIXING WITH RAIN AND SLEET...WILL INITIALLY BEGIN TO POTENTIALLY CAUSE PROBLEMS DURING RUSHHOUR THIS AFTERNOON...AND WILL HAVE IMPACTS TO TRAVEL ACROSS THEMID STATE THROUGH TONIGHT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted November 26, 2013 Share Posted November 26, 2013 Hey all, not ruffle any feathers but, there is a obs thread to post in. As this is a on going event for some areas. We might want to keep the discussion & obs separate? http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/41790-pre-thanksgiving-event-obs/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted November 26, 2013 Share Posted November 26, 2013 Hey all, not ruffle any feathers but, there is a obs thread to post in. As this is a on going event for some areas. We might want to keep the discussion & obs separate? http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/41790-pre-thanksgiving-event-obs/ Which of the 100 post are you referring to? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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