Potential Thanksgiving Event

[Cold Rain]

If there is no cold air advection, initial temps around 30 will not cut it for a major ice storm. Latent heat release will raise the temp to 32/33 before major accrual takes place. If temps start out in the mid 20s, then obviously there will be more time for accrual.

December 2005 had CAA present at the beginning (first half?) of the event...enough to offset the latent heat release of freezing. December 2002 was classic cad with a robust CAA throughout.

If temps start out low enough and/or there is an extended period of CAA, then some decent ice accrual could occur, prior to the change-over. If not, a starting temp of 30/31 is not going to lead to a major ice storm....I think that's what 1300 is saying.

[SnowNiner]

Just a general statement on freezing rain but in my opinion/experience freezing rain with a temperature at or above 30F is typically a self-limiting process because the latent heat of freezing results in melting and warming of the near-surface layer, limiting ice accrual.

 

Rarely have I ever seen a significant icing event occur when the surface temp wasn't colder than 30F during the event, although granted the antecedent cold conditions are helping to keep the ground (and other surfaces) cold before this one.

 

I agree with this.  "Freezing Rain" events in the low 30s seem to usually be in name only; in Charlotte anyway.  Heat island effect, latent heat, etc, I've just never seen any issues with those events; other than maybe some token gloss to trees and my windshield. 

[griteater]

The sneaky area is right along the blue ridge escarpment where the cold air is last to scour away...and you have some upslope component adding a bit of cooling.

[1300m]

If there is no cold air advection, initial temps around 30 will not cut it for a major ice storm. Latent heat release will raise the temp to 32/33 before major accrual takes place. If temps start out in the mid 20s, then obviously there will be more time for accrual.

December 2005 had CAA present at the beginning (first half?) of the event...enough to offset the latent heat release of freezing. December 2002 was classic cad with a robust CAA throughout.

If temps start out low enough and/or there is an extended period of CAA, then some decent ice accrual could occur, prior to the change-over. If not, a starting temp of 30/31 is not going to lead to a major ice storm....I think that's what 1300 is saying.

 

Man, whatever I say sounds so much better when you say it haha. Indeed, once again, that is exactly what I was trying to get across. I did neglect to mention the lack of CAA also being part of the limiting process. Sometimes what's in the brain fails to articulate itself in words (at least for me!).

[superjames1992]

I agree with this.  "Freezing Rain" events in the low 30s seem to usually be in name only; in Charlotte anyway.  Heat island effect, latent heat, etc, I've just never seen any issues with those events; other than maybe some token gloss to trees and my windshield. 

 

In my experience, that has been the case here, as well.  We get some glaze on the trees, but the roadways don't have issues and I can't really recall losing power from a marginal ZR event.

 

I'm hoping I'm not confusing my events here as this was a decade ago, but IIRC we had very marginal temperatures with this one in February 2003 (low 30s) and I think it even changed to rain later on (I'm assuming there was no CAD feed, so latent heat release eventually forced temperatures above freezing).  Despite ice storm warning criteria totals, I don't recall any significant issues with power outages.  I could be wrong, though.  Of course, with the event being in late February, the sun angle certainly didn't help things, either.

 

 

Of course, I'm not saying it can't and won't happen with marginal temperatures, though.  Perhaps we'll find out.

[franklin NCwx]

Man, whatever I say sounds so much better when you say it haha. Indeed, once again, that is exactly what I was trying to get across. I did neglect to mention the lack of CAA also being part of the limiting process. Sometimes what's in the brain fails to articulate itself in words (at least for me!).

Not to mention the mid level temps will be a furnace with this being a miller A instead of a miller B or cutter. WAA will blowtorch central NC, and even us over here in the spine of the Apps.

[NEGa]

You would think they would issue a WWA across my area here in the upstate. I think we gonna be in a icy situation here as well!

 

got my fingers crossed lol. i am in the ga county right to your west i think.  its 37 and a very low dewpoint (10).  we just the moisture now to see what happens.  CADS can be variable and the last couple years not worked out all to well.  i hope this one does, it seems more reminiscent of the ones where we did manage a little glaze before a change to rain...low temps (30s) low dewpoints, overcast now to hopefully keep temps from rising any, and moisture headed this way.

[dsaur]

"On January 7 and 8, 1973, Atlanta and areas of north Georgia were hard hit by one to four inches of ice that closed schools and left 300,000 people without power for up to a week. Over 2.25 inches of liquid equivalent in the form of freezing rain, sleet, and snow fell on Atlanta between 7:00pm and 9:00 a.m. on January 8, while temperatures remained at 32°F. "

  That, among the obvious things is what stuck out to me....32 the whole event on the porch thermometer in Buckhead.  Granted it wasn't a great one, so it could have fluctuated some, but in the trees where the money shot was, it was cold enough to dissipate the heat as it fell.  My front steps rail had over three inches on it, and up top the limbs had more.  And it was zmonster in my yard...no sn or ip.

  Don't get cozy thinking the heat will save you if every thing lines up right, but we had reinforcing winds too, fighting the waa step for step. I don't see this being that, lol. I doubt that comes along very often.

[a5ehren]

Brand new Atlanta NWS video: http://www.daculaweather.com/4_nws_videos.php

Was surprised when I saw rain/snow mix put in my local grid on Wednesday morning.

[Brick Tamland]

I remember sometime back in the late 80s, I want to say 88, where we had a pretty good ice storm that played havoc on the roads when it was forecasted to be just rain. It didn't bring down trees or power lines, but the roads were a mess. I remember because I was getting on the bus for school and remember slipping when I was crossing the street. Then our bus got stuck as the ice got worse and we were stranded, and a policeman had to take me back home, and there were cars wrecking all over th eplace. So, it doesn't have to take a lot of ice to be trouble, and sometimes what is supposed to be just rain turns out to be more. Of course, we haven't had a surprise like that for a while. Usually it's the other way around, and what is supposed to be a good snow turns into rain or just a dusting.

[Cold Rain]

Man, whatever I say sounds so much better when you say it haha. Indeed, once again, that is exactly what I was trying to get across. I did neglect to mention the lack of CAA also being part of the limiting process. Sometimes what's in the brain fails to articulate itself in words (at least for me!).

Ha! I'm with ya. Grit made a good point about the upslope against the escarpment too. Hopefully, the area can avoid any major icing issues...but it should be a nice early taste of winter for some, at least.

[NEGa]

While I totally agree with you about it being an eventual self limiting process, I do want to mention the December 2005 event which was almost totally in-situ driven. You can see from the obs that it was about an 6 hour event but it was still a fairly damaging ice storm well into SC. 

http://www.wunderground.com/history/airport/KCLT/2005/12/15/DailyHistory.html

 

well into GA.  over 1/2" here, power was out for 4 days, entire counties of NE GA lost power and just about every tree in the neighbor had damage, with about 1/2 tree loss in most yards.  worse one i have seen since middle school (decades ago)

 

 

Also known as the Larry Cosgrove "I hope you get an inch of ice" storm from the old board. I remember that hit GSP hard. 

 

remember that well. one of the all time classics. and then pretty much happened lol

[Bsudweather]

got my fingers crossed lol. i am in the ga county right to your west i think. its 37 and a very low dewpoint (10). we just the moisture now to see what happens. CADS can be variable and the last couple years not worked out all to well. i hope this one does, it seems more reminiscent of the ones where we did manage a little glaze before a change to rain...low temps (30s) low dewpoints, overcast now to hopefully keep temps from rising any, and moisture headed this way.

Yes I'm in Pickens just one county to the east of Oconee sc. They are one thing I know if that wedge sets up just right that's how us here get some bad ice storms!! And this is coming in overnight when temps will be down to start not factoring in the DP and wet bulb, so we have that moisture overriding that cold air so I'm sure we gonna see some icing just how bad is yet to be seen.

[NCSNOW]

First of what I hope to be many winter weather advisories (WSW) this year just issued for my area>

 

http://www.erh.noaa.gov/rah/

[NEGa]

Yes I'm in Pickens just one county to the east of Oconee sc. They are one thing I know if that wedge sets up just right that's how us here get some bad ice storms!! And this is coming in overnight when temps will be down to start not factoring in the DP and wet bulb, so we have that moisture overriding that cold air so I'm sure we gonna see some icing just how bad is yet to be seen.

cool! normally without any kind of watch, advisory statement etc. for my area i would be "yeah whatever" but i have seen this set up before and mby has ended up with a decent glazing of ice.  hopefully the dewpoint and temps dont skyrocket just as precip gets here lol.  my location more precarious than yours as i am farther sw. i am fairly optimistic that something other than just rain will fall this evening or tonight

[Stovepipe]

MRX on the situation in east TN:

 

 

.LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...LOW PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST...WITH PRECIP IN FORECAST THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING. TUESDAY NIGHT...SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE AREA SHOW
ABOVE FREEZING TEMPERATURES FROM SFC TO MIDLEVELS THROUGH 00Z.
COLD AIR WILL QUICKLY ADVECT INTO THE AREA FROM THE
NORTHWEST...TAKING THE ENTIRE SOUNDING TO BELOW ZERO TEMPERATURES.
DURING THIS TIME THE TEMPERATURE DROPS QUICKLY ENOUGH... SO EXPECT
ANY RAIN TO TRANSITION FULLY TO SNOW. ANY SLEET WILL BE VERY SHORT
LIVED...SO LEFT OUT OF FORECAST. NORTHERN PLATEAU COULD SEE THIS
TRANSITION FIRST BETWEEN 9 PM AND 11 PM...WITH THE REST OF THE
PLATEAU AND VALLEY BETWEEN 10 PM AND 12 AM. SHORTLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT...EXPECT THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA TO DROP BELOW FREEZING
WITH SNOW AS THE MAIN EVENT.

THE SOUNDING IS VERY MOIST THROUGH UPPER MID LEVELS THROUGH
THE EARLY MORNING. AMOUNTS OF UP TO 3-6 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN
NORTHEASTERN TN...SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA...AND THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF
THE SMOKY MOUNTAINS. NORTHERN PLATEAU COULD SEE LOCALLY HEAVY
BANDING OF SNOW AS THE WRAP AROUND MOISTURE FROM THE LOW PRESSURE
MAKES ITS WAY INTO THE AREA. DRY AIR WILL THEN MOVE IN BEHIND THIS
LOW...WITH SNOW ENDING AROUND CHATTANOOGA SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. BY
MID MORNING...THE REST OF THE PLATEAU AND VALLEY WILL SEE SNOW
ENDING. UPSLOPE FLOW WILL BE PRESENT WITH SNOW CONTINUING FOR THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. EVEN
THOUGH MOISTURE IS SHALLOW IN THE SOUNDINGS AT THIS
TIME...EXPECTING ANOTHER ONE TO TWO INCHES ACCUMULATION ACROSS THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. MOST ACCUMULATION WILL BE ON ELEVATED SURFACES
AND GRASSY AREAS...WITH SOME MELTING ON ROADWAYS.

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL STAY
IN THE LOW TO MID 30S...WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THROUGH THE LATE
AFTERNOON. ANY SNOW LEFT ON THE GROUND MAY LOWER TEMPERATURES
ANOTHER DEGREE OR TWO FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT LEFT LOW
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TEENS TO THE LOWER 20S. WINDS WILL
BE GUSTY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH WIND CHILL VALUES
REACHING THE TEENS ACROSS THE AREA.

[Thrasher Fan]

I think this nails everything pretty perfectly for the N Ga area.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA

253 PM EST MON NOV 25 2013

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY... BUSY WEATHER DAY TONIGHT

INTO TUESDAY. LETS START WITH TONIGHT...LATEST GUIDANCE HAS THE

LOW PRESSURE SLIGHTLY FURTHER NORTH INTO THE CWA TOMORROW. THIS

WILL HELP TO USHER IN WARMER TEMPERATURES THAN THE LAST RUNS. THIS

WILL HELP TO KEEP FZRA AND ICE ACCUMULATIONS TO THE HIGHEST

ELEVATIONS AND LOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY PREDICTED. CURRENT THINKING

IS THAT FZRA AND POSSIBLY SOME RAIN AND SLEET COULD AFFECT THE NORTH GA

MOUNTAINS TONIGHT. FREEZING RAIN WILL CHANGE OVER TO RAIN

TONIGHT...WHICH WILL HELP TO MELT ANY ICE ACCUMULATIONS. IT IS

IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT WE ARE EXPECTING THAT ANY ICE ACCUMULATIONS

THAT DO FORM WILL BE SHORT LIVED AND MAY NOT EVEN AFFECT ANY OF

THE ROAD SURFACES. BRIDGES...OVERPASSES AND SOME ROADS MAY BECOME

SLICK FROM THE ICE. BLACK ICE OFTENTIMES LOOKS LIKE A WET ROAD

WAY. THE ONLY CAVEAT TO THIS FORECAST IS THE POSSIBILITY OF

TEMPERATURES IN VALLEYS THAT REMAIN BELOW FREEZING LONGER. AT

THESE PLACES...MORE ICE ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE. CURRENT

SATELLITE SHOWS CLOUDS MOVING INTO THE AREA...THIS SHOULD HELP TO

MODERATE TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT.

AS FOR TUESDAY...MODERATE RAIN OVERTAKES THE AREA. MODELS ARE IN

GOOD AGREEMENT FOR TUESDAY. MODERATE AND PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN WILL

AFFECT THE AREA AND UP TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN COULD FALL. SEE HYDROLOGY

SECTION FOR MORE INFORMATION. CAPE VALUES REBOUND A LITTLE IN THE

WARM SECTOR. 0-1 KM LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS PROGGED TO BE AOA 40 TO

50 KTS ON THE GFS AND 50 TO 60KTS IN THE NAM. THE NAM IS THE ONLY

MODEL THAT HAS APPRECIABLE CAPE...NEVERTHELESS THERE IS A SLIGHT

CHANCE FOR A SEVERE WIND GUST AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE

RULED OUT...THE BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE SOUTH OF A

COLUMBUS TO DUBLIN TO SANDERSVILLE LINE.

ARG

.WEDNESDAY...

SEVERAL FACTORS TO CONSIDER ON WEDNESDAY AS THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS

NORTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA. FORMER CUTOFF LOW IN PLACE OVER

THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY 00Z WEDNESDAY CONTINUES TO PHASE

WITH THE LONGWAVE TROUGH IN THE GREAT LAKES DURING THE DAY AS THE

SURFACE SYSTEM WORKS ITS WAY UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD. CONTINUED

TRENDING WITH A BLEND OF THE 12Z NAM/00Z ECMWF.

WIDESPREAD RAIN CONTINUES OVER THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY

MORNING. DRY SLOT AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH BUT BEHIND THE SURFACE

SYSTEM WILL PUSH INTO THE STATE AFTER MIDNIGHT...DEPICTED ON ALL THE

MODELS BUT NOT WELL REFLECTED IN POP GRIDS AT THIS TIME DUE TO

UNCERTAINTY IN FINAL TIMING. ANOTHER WAVE OF PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH

THE UPPER LOW ITSELF WILL PUSH THROUGH BETWEEN 09-12Z WEDNESDAY...

RAPIDLY EXITING THROUGH THE LATE MORNING HOURS. THIS SECOND WAVE

WILL REINTRODUCE ICE INTO THE CLOUD BY ALLOWING SATURATION AT THE

-10C DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH THRESHOLD AS TEMPERATURES BEGIN DROPPING

BACK INTO THE MID AND LOWER 30S ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA. AS A RESULT

RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE THE PTYPE WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL BE RAIN OR

SNOW WITH ONLY A FEW ICE PELLETS THROWN IN THERE. MAY SEE A

RAIN/SNOW MIX AS FAR SOUTH AS THE SOUTHERN ATLANTA METRO COUNTIES...

BUT ONLY ACCUMULATION EXPECTED WOULD BE UP IN NORTH GEORGIA. AT BEST

STILL LOOKING AROUND AN INCH...PERHAPS ISOLATED 2 INCHES AT HIGHEST

ELEVATIONS. THIS PROBABLY WARRANTS AN ADVISORY FOR WEDNESDAY MORNING

BUT IT IS A LITTLE TOO EARLY TO ISSUE ONE AT THIS POINT. AS THE WAVE

DEPARTS BETWEEN 12-15Z AND MOISTURE DEPTH SHALLOWS...CANNOT RULE OUT

SOME BRIEF FREEZING DRIZZLE AT THE VERY END OF THE EVENT RESULTING

IN A LIGHT GLAZE AT THE VERY END ACROSS THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS...

OTHER CONCERN IS THUNDER ACROSS SOUTHERN ZONES. VERY STRONG SHEAR

ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM WITH 850MB LOW LEVEL JET OF OVER 50KT

ACROSS SOUTHEAST ZONES AHEAD OF THE FRONT BETWEEN 00-09Z WEDNESDAY

/FRONT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH BY 12Z/. VERY LITTLE INSTABILITY

ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM BUT WITH STRONG SHEAR AND VERY MOIST

AIRMASS CANNOT RULE OUT SOME ROTATION IN THE SHOWERS OR ISOLATED

THUNDERSTORMS. STRONG WINDS CERTAINLY A POSSIBILITY WITH SUCH A

STRONG JET JUST OFF THE SURFACE...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLATED

DAMAGING WIND GUSTS OR EVEN A BRIEF TORNADO.

YET ANOTHER CONCERN IS WINDS ON WEDNESDAY. SUSTAINED WINDS UP TO

20MPH LIKELY SO WILL PROBABLY HAVE TO ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY ON A

LATER SHIFT /AGAIN...A LITTLE TOO EARLY TO ISSUE AT THIS POINT/.

WITH THE STRONG CAA BEHIND THE FRONT WEDNESDAY WILL BE A RATHER

UNCOMFORTABLE DAY WITH WIND CHILLS IN THE 20S ACROSS THE NORTHERN

HALF OF THE AREA AND TEENS IN THE MOUNTAINS.

TDP

[packbacker]

NAM paints a nice wrap around snow storm for TN, in between Nashville and Knoxville, although they appeared to be right on the east/west fringe.

 

Correction, fills in for Knoxville, nice snow event up through WVA.

[metalicwx366]

SPC now has a Day 2 Slight risk area. One for the Northern Gulf Coast and the coastal carolinas.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk.html

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER A PORTION OF THE NERN GULF

COASTAL AREA...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER A PORTION OF THE COASTAL

CAROLINAS...

...NERN GULF COASTAL AREA...

SLY LLJ WILL STRENGTHEN TO IN EXCESS OF 50 KT OVER THE GULF COAST

STATES IN ASSOCIATION WITH DEVELOPING LOW OVER THE GULF. RESERVOIR

OF UPPER 60S SFC DEWPOINTS NOW RESIDING OVER THE NCNTRL GULF WILL

ADVECT INLAND THROUGH THE FL PANHANDLE INTO SRN GA CONTRIBUTING TO

DESTABILIZATION. HOWEVER...WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND WEAK LAPSE RATES

SHOULD LIMIT MLCAPE TO AOB 500 J/KG. IT APPEARS LIKELY THAT BANDS OF

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM EARLY TUESDAY WITHIN PRE-FRONTAL

CONVERGENCE ZONES ACROSS THE NRN GULF AND DEVELOP NEWD THROUGH THE

FL PANHANDLE...NRN FL AND SRN GA AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTENS AND

DESTABILIZES INLAND. LARGE HODOGRAPHS ASSOCIATED WITH THE MIGRATORY

LLJ WITH 0-2 KM STORM RELATIVE HELICITY IN EXCESS OF 300 M2/S2 AND A

MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WILL CONTRIBUTE TO A THREAT OF LOW-LEVEL

MESOCYCLONES AND PERHAPS ISOLATED TORNADOES. ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND

GUSTS ASSOCIATED WITH LINE/BOWING SEGMENTS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

THE MARGINAL THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT COULD SERVE AS A LIMITING

FACTOR FOR A MORE ROBUST SEVERE THREAT.

...CAROLINA COASTS...

WITH SFC LOW FORECAST TO TRACK THROUGH THE ECNTRL CAROLINAS...IT

APPEAR LIKELY THAT A MOIST WARM SECTOR WILL DEVELOP INLAND OF THE

COAST. UPPER 60S DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NWD THROUGH THE

GULF STREAM ALONG A STRENGTHENING SLY LLJ. THE THETA-E ADVECTION

WILL RESULT IN DESTABILIZATION OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER. HOWEVER...CAPE

SHOULD REMAIN WEAK OWING TO WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND WEAK LAPSE RATES.

IT APPEARS LIKELY THAT SCATTERED LOW TOPPED CONVECTION INCLUDING A

FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON WITHIN THIS ZONE

OF DESTABILIZATION AND ALONG LOW-LEVEL CONFLUENCE BANDS OVER THE

GULF. VERTICAL SHEAR WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH

0-2 KM HODOGRAPHS FAVORABLE FOR LOW-LEVEL MESOCYCLONES AND PERHAPS

ISOLATED TORNADOES...CONDITIONAL UPON SUFFICIENT BOUNDARY LAYER

MOISTENING AND INSTABILITY.

[burgertime]

NAM paints a nice wrap around snow storm for TN, in between Nashville and Knoxville, although they appeared to be right on the east/west fringe.

 

Correction, fills in for Knoxville, nice snow event up through WVA.

 

Hi-Res NAM has changeover to snow for middle TN @34 hours. Given comp. radar that could be nice snow for them. 

[HurricaneTracker]

Hi-Res NAM has changeover to snow for middle TN @34 hours. Given comp. radar that could be nice snow for them. 

 

The real question is if the northward and northwest shift in the track of the low is realistic.  In theory, it should follow the TMB, which should be located from south-central Georgia through Columbia, SC, and just east of Charlotte, NC.  This would put the heaviest snows on a line from Knoxville to Asheville, rather than Nashville to Knoxville.

 

Seems to me the 12Z Euro had the right idea - appears the upcoming 00Z runs of the NAM should re-adjust tonight.

[BRAD74]

freezing rain advisory for western nc

 

ALEXANDER-IREDELL-DAVIE-CATAWBA-ROWAN-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...STATESVILLE...MOCKSVILLE...HICKORY...
SALISBURY...SHELBY...LINCOLNTON
 

[Wow]

Check out the low level cold air in place. (This is a brand new x-section available at the MC)

 

[burgertime]

The real question is if the northward and northwest shift in the track of the low is realistic.  In theory, it should follow the TMB, which should be located from south-central Georgia through Columbia, SC, and just east of Charlotte, NC.  This would put the heaviest snows on a line from Knoxville to Asheville, rather than Nashville to Knoxville.

 

Seems to me the 12Z Euro had the right idea - appears the upcoming 00Z runs of the NAM should re-adjust tonight.

 

Yea it's a little weird how the axis of moisture orients on the NAM. I hope you're right  AVL seems to have as bad luck as CLT...maybe even worse given your closer to the mountains (just from a simpleton's view). 

[metalicwx366]

Check out the developing surface low in the Gulf. Interesting to watch.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/vis-animated.gif

[griteater]

The real question is if the northward and northwest shift in the track of the low is realistic.  In theory, it should follow the TMB, which should be located from south-central Georgia through Columbia, SC, and just east of Charlotte, NC.  This would put the heaviest snows on a line from Knoxville to Asheville, rather than Nashville to Knoxville.

 

Seems to me the 12Z Euro had the right idea - appears the upcoming 00Z runs of the NAM should re-adjust tonight.

HT, what is the TMB?     Baroclinic zone or convergence axis??

[Snow Wisher]

NWS has mention of snow for my part of Mississippi!

 

[HurricaneTracker]

HT, what is the TMB?     Baroclinic zone or convergence axis??

 

Thermal - moisture boundary (or Temperature/Moisture boundary).  It's basically a warm-frontal structure baroclinic zone along which low pressure systems track to take advantage of the potential temperature gradient.

[HurricaneTracker]

The 18Z NAM also shows a 90 knot (!!) low-level jet screaming northward into New England.

 

[griteater]

Thermal - moisture boundary (or Temperature/Moisture boundary).  It's basically a warm-frontal structure baroclinic zone along which low pressure systems track to take advantage of the potential temperature gradient.

Thanks, HRRR has precip reaching Asheville around 1AM, NC Foothills 2-4AM, and Charlotte at 4AM