griteater Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 AM update from Raleigh... STORM SYSTEM ORGANIZING ON SCHEDULE. DID NOTE THAT THE00Z ECMWF VERIFIED BEST WITH THE EASTWARD EXTENT OF THEPRECIPITATION SHIELD IN THE LOWER MS VALLEY (COMPARED TO THE 00Z GFSAND 00Z NAM). BY 00Z TUE...IF TRENDS CONTINUE...SHOULD SEE LEADINGEDGE OF PRECIP ENTER INTO SW NC...SPREADING TO NEAR OUR WESTERNPERIPHERY COUNTIES BY 06Z. -WSS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 Latest from the SPC for eastern NC is pretty interesting....\ COASTAL NC AND FAR SERN VA... PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY TO BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD ACROSS MOST OF THE MID-ATLANTIC IN RESPONSE TO STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT ACCOMPANYING A VIGOROUS UPPER TROUGH. A SFC LOW IS FORECAST TO PROGRESS NEWD ACROSS ERN NC WED MORNING...WITH AN ACCOMPANYING WARM SECTOR CHARACTERIZED BY UPPER 60S F DEWPOINTS IN PLACE. VERY STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR A FEW STRONG-SVR WIND GUSTS AND PERHAPS A TORNADO...BUT THE THREAT WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS A COLD FRONT QUICKLY PROGRESSES OFFSHORE BY LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 GFS actually has some left over snow showers @54 for NC. With new data ingest this could be good news for folks who want to see some token flakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSIONNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL934 AM CST MON NOV 25 2013.UPDATE...INCLUDED LIGHT SLEET/RAIN IN FCST FOR THE ENTIRE DAY...ADJUSTED POPSAND LOWERED TEMPS A FEW DEGREES.&&.DISCUSSION...ALREADY RECEIVED A FEW REPORTS OF LIGHT SLEET AT HSV AIRPORT ANDDCU WITH THE MOISTURE MOVING ACROSS THE TN VALLEY AHEAD OF THE UPPERLOW OVER NRN TX. THUS WILL GO AHEAD AND INCLUDE THE ENTIRE CWA WITH ALIGHT RAIN/SLEET MIX. BASED ON NEW MODEL SOUNDINGS COMING IN...REMOVED LIGHT SNOW FOR LATE THIS AFTN. ATTM FEEL THE MIX PCPN WILL BELIGHT ENOUGH AND WITH HIGHS ARND 40 TO NOT CAUSE ANY TRAVEL ISSUESTODAY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 It's difficult to see the system track right into the wedge. I guess it could happen, or the cold could get scoured out quickly, but that process seems to always take longer than the models show. It seems like a track along the coast would be favored. I agree. Which honestly probably could toss the NAM out. The wedge is usually the hardest and the last thing to get rid off. Realistically... I'd have to favor something along the lines of GFS maybe just a tad east with the SLP placement and warm front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxJordan Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 The GFS shows a touch more moisture left to work with as the low deepens and moves up the coast. It paints around .10 of an inch of liquid precip across the foothills of NC; however, it is very difficult to get the moisture to wrap around and make it over the mountains. Something to watch while the event is occurring though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 Raysweather assessment of our event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 For the NC Mtns, the 850mb low is running right up the spine of the Apps. This slows down the progression of the cold air working in on the backside after it passes, which limits the amount of backside snow with the trailing deformation band. GFS and NAM are in agreement with this, and hard to imagine it changing much over the next 24 hours...but slight adjustments will key how much snow the deform band can produce overnight Tues into Wed AM - anywhere from very little to a few inches. Then there will be at least some upslope snow thereafter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 I agree. Which honestly probably could toss the NAM out. The wedge is usually the hardest and the last thing to get rid off. Realistically... I'd have to favor something along the lines of GFS maybe just a tad east with the SLP placement and warm front. New GFS shows basically no wedging whatsoever and plows the double barrel low right up through the west-central piedmont. Also, I think we can put the final nail in the coffin for any back-end flakes outside of the mountain areas. Once again, another system has trended the complete opposite direction of what we need for snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 We don't call it NO-vember for nothing! TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 New GFS shows basically no wedging whatsoever and plows the double barrel low right up through the west-central piedmont. Also, I think we can put the final nail in the coffin for any back-end flakes outside of the mountain areas. Once again, another system has trended the complete opposite direction of what we need for snow. It is getting pretty ridiculous going back 2 years now. Whatever can happen to not give us snow happens. Whichever model shows no snow is the one to go with. Doesn't matter if it is the Euro or GFS. The one that doesn't show snow ends up being right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 I like using this to see temps as well as radar. Zoom in to your region and turn on "Radar" and "Station Markers" with "Temp" as the type. http://www.daculaweather.com/current/misc/google-maps-radar/4_google_radar.php It's auto-refresh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1300m Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 New GFS shows basically no wedging whatsoever and plows the double barrel low right up through the west-central piedmont. Also, I think we can put the final nail in the coffin for any back-end flakes outside of the mountain areas. Once again, another system has trended the complete opposite direction of what we need for snow. Agreed. How frustrating. We wanted the northern stream to speed up and the southern stream to slow down, and instead we got the opposite. Fantastic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCCatawba Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 WXII12 inhouse model really hammers parts of the blue ridge. Ice totals below. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 WXII12 inhouse model really hammers parts of the blue ridge. I'm assuming that is ice accretion at the beginning of the event and not snowfall accumulation at the end of the event. There is no time stamp or explanation on this graph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 Agreed. How frustrating. We wanted the northern stream to speed up and the southern stream to slow down, and instead we got the opposite. Fantastic. It's always something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 New GFS shows basically no wedging whatsoever and plows the double barrel low right up through the west-central piedmont. Also, I think we can put the final nail in the coffin for any back-end flakes outside of the mountain areas. Once again, another system has trended the complete opposite direction of what we need for snow. What do you consider west central piedmont? No offense but need to look again. Wether or not the models(GFS) is right on the thermal profile of the atmosphere could be questioned especially 925mb. But look closely.... the surface front and pressure gradient is near and along 95. That means West of 95 is going to be cool/cold. East of 95 warm and mild. Even at the 850 level.... shows a sharp front roughly along 95. So depending on how early the precip arrives and how dry the atmosphere is will ultimately favor or not favor the insitu cad setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 New GFS shows basically no wedging whatsoever and plows the double barrel low right up through the west-central piedmont. Also, I think we can put the final nail in the coffin for any back-end flakes outside of the mountain areas. Once again, another system has trended the complete opposite direction of what we need for snow. I thought because this was a southern stream system the blocking wouldn't have been so important to get a good track off the coast. Looks like that may be an issue going forward, even with the STJ storms. Anything going up the piedmont is bad, bad news in any month. Related, I've don't remember seeing a double barrel gulf low before (Miller B?). I kept hoping for the models to consolidate them into a nice low with a good track off the coast. No idea how those doubles play out. Evidently not good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCCatawba Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 I'm assuming that is ice accretion at the beginning of the event and not snowfall accumulation at the end of the event. There is no time stamp or explanation on this graph. My bad. Yes, front end ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 12z Canadian for 8AM Tues - http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
airmarci Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 4km NAM showing incredible warmth tomorrow night with the coastal front passage at RDU... highs in the lower 40's today to near 70 late tomorrow night/early Wednesday morning. Low-level shear profiles also favorable for a few isolated severe events ahead of the cold front within the southeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 New GFS shows basically no wedging whatsoever and plows the double barrel low right up through the west-central piedmont. Also, I think we can put the final nail in the coffin for any back-end flakes outside of the mountain areas. Once again, another system has trended the complete opposite direction of what we need for snow. Yeah, yeah, but I'm going to get the old rain kickeroo right in the kazoo with this. There will be frolicking galore in the gulf downpours...be happy! I might be experiencing.... The Return of the Moles!!! Happy times are on the door step...unless there is a last minute slam to the groin by M. Nature T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 What do you consider west central piedmont? No offense but need to look again. Wether or not the models(GFS) is right on the thermal profile of the atmosphere could be questioned especially 925mb. But look closely.... the surface front and pressure gradient is near and along 95. That means West of 95 is going to be cool/cold. East of 95 warm and mild. Even at the 850 level.... shows a sharp front roughly along 95. So depending on how early the precip arrives and how dry the atmosphere is will ultimately favor or not favor the insitu cad setup. I hear what you're saying. I was just eyeballing the 4 panel on eWall (below). There is no typical wedge signature at 850 or the surface (but this is not a typical wedging situation, really). I don't think the GFS sees the low level cold very well here. It looks like the model is sending the storm right up the I-85 corridor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 Looks like we have to worry more about severe weather than snow in central NC with this. That is not unusual around here this time of year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 I thought because this was a southern stream system the blocking wouldn't have been so important to get a good track off the coast. Looks like that may be an issue going forward, even with the STJ storms. Anything going up the piedmont is bad, bad news in any month. Related, I've don't remember seeing a double barrel gulf low before (Miller B?). I kept hoping for the models to consolidate them into a nice low with a good track off the coast. No idea how those doubles play out. Evidently not good. Yeah, the double-barrel low is an unusual feature to see evolve in the way this one is depcited to evolove. I agree with you -- I don't recall seeing one quite evolve like this one. In this case, there is enough of a PNA ridge to allow the northern wave, which is fairly robust, dig far enough south to capture, or partially capture the southern wave. Blocking usually helps that process by slowing the flow, and it usually (if it's in the right place) allows the storm track to be a bit farther east. You can have a good winter storm without it, but the odds decrease and the needle's eye is much smaller. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 Looks like we have to worry more about severe weather than snow in central NC with this. That is not unusual around here this time of year. More than likely NAM is wrong about the mild and storm theme. Not saying its not going to happen.... just not here in the central and western piedmont. Severe storms look to ride along and east of the front. Most likely that front will setup between Raleigh and 95. So more than likely Brick... Raleigh area will have a cold rain... with a greater chance of sleet and ice Greensboro west. Until hopefully the ULL swings through with backend light snow/flurries Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGENATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC1217 PM EST MON NOV 25 2013...ICY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINA ANDGEORGIA MOUNTAINS AND THE NORTH CAROLINA FOOTHILLS....ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL WILL MOVE INTO VERY COLD AND DRY AIR INPLACE ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA. COLDTEMPERATURES LEADING UP TO THE PRECIPITATION WILL PERMIT SURFACESTO BECOME COLD AND SUPPORT ICE ACCUMULATIONS WITH ANY FREEZINGRAIN THAT FALLS. ACCUMULATING ICE IS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT INTOEARLY TUESDAY...WITH AREAS ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE IN NORTH CAROLINABEING THE MOST LIKELY TO SEE SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS. THEPRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE TO RAIN IN ALL AREAS BY LATETUESDAY MORNING.NCZ033-049-050-503-505-252230-/O.UPG.KGSP.ZR.Y.0004.131126T0200Z-131126T1400Z//O.NEW.KGSP.IS.W.0002.131126T0500Z-131126T1700Z/AVERY-YANCEY-MITCHELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWLAND...SPRUCE PINE1217 PM EST MON NOV 25 2013...ICE STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON ESTTUESDAY...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG HAS ISSUEDAN ICE STORM WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHTTO NOON EST TUESDAY. THE FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY IS NO LONGER INEFFECT.* LOCATIONS...MUCH OF THE THE BLUE RIDGE OF NORTH CAROLINA...AND MUCH OF THE NORTH CAROLINA FOOTHILLS.* HAZARDS...HAZARDOUS ICE ACCUMULATION.* TIMING...FREEZING RAIN WILL DEVELOP DURING MID TO LATE EVENING. FREEZING RAIN WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY MORNING.* IMPACTS...RECENT COLD WEATHER SHOULD ALLOW RAIN TO FREEZE ON ROADS IN THE NORTH CAROLINA FOOTHILLS AND ADJACENT MOUNTAINS. DRIVING COULD BECOME TREACHEROUS IN AREAS ALONG AND NEAR THE BLUE RIDGE LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY.* TEMPERATURES...LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S.* ICE ACCUMULATIONS...ONE QUARTER TO ONE THIRD OF AN INCH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCCatawba Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 Ice Storm Warnings being issued in western NC now. An Ice Storm Warning means severe winter weather conditions areexpected or occurring. Significant amounts of ice accumulationswill make travel dangerous or impossible. Travel is stronglydiscouraged. Commerce will likely be severely impacted. If youmust travel... keep an extra flashlight... food... and water in yourvehicle in case of an emergency. Ice accumulations and winds willlikely lead to snapped power lines and falling tree branches thatadd to the danger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 Here's the current thinking of GSP with regards to ice accretion overnight: This is probably why they made the Ice Storm Warning call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bsudweather Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 You would think they would issue a WWA across my area here in the upstate. I think we gonna be in a icy situation here as well! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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