valkhorn Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 MRX is suggesting a half inch in the central valley (probably Athens to Morristown), an inch or two for the valley northward, and 2-4+ in the higher elevations it seems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thrasher Fan Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 Just about time for an OBS thread on this event. Most all the players are beginning to take the field. Water vapor loop shows the ULL currently over Colorado diving due south. Cold air following close behind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 MRX mentions this morning that the models trended colder, faster, they have moved my change over time from 1 am to 8-11pm. 850s look to be crashing into East TN by around that time with the freezing line at 2m following quickly behind. It's still looking pretty good per the 00z GFS and 00z NAM. I don't have info on the Euro of course, but 2 out of 3 isn't bad. This is for East TN to the NC/SC line. Also it looks like the Smoky Mountains may fare well out of this and pick up 6" or more. Nam is giving Knoxville 2", GFS a little over 1". If we got just a dusting I'd be happy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 This first cold shot certainly helped my ground temps. 18 yesterday morning, high of 32 yesterday afternoon, fell to 22 by 10 pm and have been sitting there ever since. The ground will get wet Tuesday but the high is only going to be near 40 here the next two days, the fast temp drops and moderate snow should help get a quick coating on my way to hopefully 1-2 inches into Wednesday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCCatawba Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 GSP ...my confidence that we will see a damaging ice event develop anywhere along the Escarpment is 50/50 at best...not enough to upgrade the current watch to a warning. The watch will be left in place...while a Winter Weather Advisory will be issued for much of the remaining Blue Ridge areas...as well as the foothills of NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valkhorn Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 This first cold shot certainly helped my ground temps. 18 yesterday morning, high of 32 yesterday afternoon, fell to 22 by 10 pm and have been sitting there ever since. The ground will get wet Tuesday but the high is only going to be near 40 here the next two days, the fast temp drops and moderate snow should help get a quick coating on my way to hopefully 1-2 inches into Wednesday morning. The ground is going to be soaked. Last year we got a good bit of rain before the 2" afternoon 30 minute thump that snarled up rush hour. If it snows heavy enough, it'll stick. Here I doubt it'll stick to anything besides the grass and rooftops here. I have to also drive home on I40 to I75 and I59 on Wed. Morning but as long as the temps are in the low to mid 30s I'll be fine. I'm just glad I don't have to head north on I75 at that ridge. I'm at 1150' in Knox County, so best of luck! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valkhorn Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 From NEW ORLEANS of all places...COLD AIR MAY FILTER INTO THE AREA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE ISEXPECTED TO THE PUSH EAST AS THE LOW PULLS EAST. HOWEVER...NEARFREEZING TEMPERATURES AND MOISTURE MAY BE IN PLAY AND YIELD RAINMIXED WITH FROZEN PRECIPITATION LATE TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAYMORNING. AT THIS TIME...NO ACCUMULATION OF FROZEN PRECIPITATIONIS EXPECTED WITH THIS WEATHER EVENT BUT PLEASE STAY TUNED TO LATERFORECASTS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 Front End Warm Up has started up top. Likely to level off around freezing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 http://www.daculaweather.com/4_hpc_sig_lows.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 Man, some of you are going to have a nice pre-winter event, wish I was going to be in the mountains! http://www.daculaweather.com/4_wpc_winter_graphical.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 NAM trended drier for NC folks with the back end snow. Looking at the Hi-Res comp. radar it doesn't look good even for flurries Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 http://www.daculaweather.com/4_hpc_qpf_disco.php and snow disco: http://www.daculaweather.com/4_hpc_snow_disco.php (Kocin is forecaster) REGARDING DETAILS...EXPECT WIDESPREAD CONVECTION TO ACCOMPANY THECOLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND FLORIDA...WITH PWANOMALIES NEARING 2.5 TO 3.0 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVENORMAL...WITH THE NAM CONUS NEST PROVIDING A REALISTIC DEPICTIONOF WHAT'S EXPECTED FROM A QPF PERSPECTIVE. FARTHER NORTH...THEDEVELOPING BUT INITIALLY FRACTURED FRONTAL SYSTEM WITH 2 STREAMSFORMING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY ACROSS AND INTO THE LEE OF THEAPPALACHIANS WILL BECOME ANOTHER TARGET AREA FOR HEAVYTOTALS...DUE TO A COMBINATION OF HIGH RATES AND LONG DURATION WITHTHE AMPLIFYING PATTERN. MOISTURE FLUX ANOMALIES FROM THE NAMREACH THE TOP OF THE CHARTS ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTHEASTCOAST...WITH PW VALUES NEAR 1.5 INCHES AND 850 MB FLOW REACHING50-85 KNOTS. ADD TO IT CYCLONIC...ONSHORE...AND UPSLOPE WINDCOMPONENTS...AND THE ASCENT PROFILES BECOME EXTREMELY LARGE.AGAIN...RELIED IN MODEST MEASURE ON THE NAM...EXCEPT TO TONE DOWNTHE AMOUNTS NEAR ITS LOW POSITION OVER NEW YORK...AS THEY WEREONLY WEAKLY SUPPORTED AT BEST BY OTHER GUIDANCE. OTHERWISE...THEGFS WAS ALSO USED. THE MODEL RECEIVING THE LEAST CONSIDERATIONWAS THE 12Z ECMWF...WHICH WAS FAR TOO SLOW WITH THE SOUTHERNSTREAM...WITH THE 00Z VERSION SPEEDING UP AND THEREFORE CONFIRMINGTHE MODEL CHOICES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 NAM trended drier for NC folks with the back end snow. Looking at the Hi-Res comp. radar it doesn't look good even for flurries Seems to match up with Matthew East's video this morning. Looks like any potential snow flakage at the end may not be a big deal outside the mountains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 NWS GSP Monday Morning Graphics Package for Western NC and NC High Country http://www.erh.noaa.gov/gsp/stormtotal/stormtotal.shtml Snow Accumulation on the Back End Ice Accretion is on the Front End Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 I was never jazzed about the Wed changeover to snow. Tonight will be much more interesting , my current temp is 22.4, looks like solid mid- level clouds coming in. That could shave 2 , or 3 degrees off highs for today and make tonight worse! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneTracker Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 One thing that needs to be discussed more fully outside of the wintery precipitation is the potential for extremely heavy rains. As WPC noted, a strong LLJ and moisture flux will create long periods of deep ascent. We could have flooding issues before the cold air crashes in and creates an incredible mess Wednesday morning. It seems that 3-5" of widespread rain falling in 12-18 hours is likely. With the recent cold snap and long dry fall season, runoff potential is high. Expect rapid rises on streams and rivers. Winds will also sharply increase Wednesday morning. I expect power outages and downed trees across many areas, especially the mountains. Be careful! Sent from my steam-powered printing press. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 Man, some of you are going to have a nice pre-winter event, wish I was going to be in the mountains! http://www.daculaweather.com/4_wpc_winter_graphical.php Ya Steve not really looking forward to the ice we are going to see. We have a freezing rain advisory out for quite a few areas. I posted the advisory in the Mountain thread. Looks like we could see snow, sleet, and then freezing rain on the front end then a good duration of snow on the backend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 One thing that needs to be discussed more fully outside of the wintery precipitation is the potential for extremely heavy rains. As WPC noted, a strong LLJ and moisture flux will create long periods of deep ascent. We could have flooding issues before the cold air crashes in and creates an incredible mess Wednesday morning. It seems that 3-5" of widespread rain falling in 12-18 hours is likely. With the recent cold snap and long dry fall season, runoff potential is high. Expect rapid rises on streams and rivers. Winds will also sharply increase Wednesday morning. I expect power outages and downed trees across many areas, especially the mountains. Be careful! Sent from my steam-powered printing press. Ya this seems this is going to have a big problem here around the mountains. We could go from ice to heavy rain to heavy snow in about 48 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 Granted it's not a roaring NE wind but there is a noticable breeze. Too bad we can't keep this when the precip is falling lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 Right now, it's looking ok as far as flash flooding. http://www.daculaweather.com/4_flash_flood_guidance.php That's not to say there won't be any, but we've been pretty dry lately, so that ought to help to absorb at least some of it. Too bad it won't be 10 degrees colder! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 SENIOR DUTY METEOROLOGIST NWS ADMINISTRATIVE MESSAGENWS NCEP CENTRAL OPERATIONS COLLEGE PARK MD1324Z MON NOV 25 201312Z NAM RAOB RECAP...70231/MCG - 10142.76805/ACA - 10142.78866/SXM - 10142.72562/LBF - MISSING PART B.78016/BDA - MISSING PART B.72214/TAE - NOT AVAILABLE.CRITICAL WEATHER DAY STATUS...NCEP DOES ANTICIPATE A CWD WILL BE PUT IN PLACE BEGINNING LATERTODAY AND RUN INTO THANKSGIVING DAY..DUE TO THE THREAT FOR WINTERSTORM CONDITIONS IMPACTING SEVERAL NWS REGIONS DURING THISPERIOD...REGIONAL COORDINATION WILL BE TAKING PLACE SHORTLY..MOREINFO WILL BE SEND IN THE NEXT HR OR TWO.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 Models seem to be consistently showing 1 to 3 inches of snow even in the central valley of east TN by Wed morning. Latest NAM is more agressive with a little over 3, Euro about 2, GFS about 1. I imagine the plateau and mountains will cash in nicely. This is pretty entertaining for November. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 Models seem to be consistently showing 1 to 3 inches of snow even in the central valley of east TN by Wed morning. Latest NAM is more agressive with a little over 3, Euro about 2, GFS about 1. I imagine the plateau and mountains will cash in nicely. This is pretty entertaining for November. Ya I am really getting excited about seeing some significant snow here in the mountains. I think the models are underdoing the accumulation in the upslope regions also as they usually do. I could really care less about the ice but we do need the rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxJordan Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 One thing that needs to be discussed more fully outside of the wintery precipitation is the potential for extremely heavy rains. As WPC noted, a strong LLJ and moisture flux will create long periods of deep ascent. We could have flooding issues before the cold air crashes in and creates an incredible mess Wednesday morning. It seems that 3-5" of widespread rain falling in 12-18 hours is likely. With the recent cold snap and long dry fall season, runoff potential is high. Expect rapid rises on streams and rivers. Winds will also sharply increase Wednesday morning. I expect power outages and downed trees across many areas, especially the mountains. Be careful! Sent from my steam-powered printing press. 100% agree, I expect that areas in the mountains and foothills could see upwards of 3-5 inches of rain, especially along favored upslope areas. Winds are going to back towards the southeast, which will help to funnel in copious amounts of moisture. I have increased my rain totals forecast, and I suspect that I may have underdone some areas, especially along the Blue Ridge. Once the winds increase, with the very wet grounds, trees could be falling all over the place. Source: http://www.wxjordan.com/weather/forecast/217-monday-update-storm-approaching-area-for-tuesday A good upslope event could also be on tap for the mountains. I was looking at Skew-Ts last night, and the GFS has temperatures decreasing nearly at the dry adiabatic lapse rate at a location in near I-40 along the Tennessee/NC border. The northwest winds could be a touch stronger; however, I believe the mountains could see some good upslope snow showers. Outside of the mountains I am not nearly as optimistic.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 NAM trended drier for NC folks with the back end snow. Looking at the Hi-Res comp. radar it doesn't look good even for flurries Seems to match up with Matthew East's video this morning. Looks like any potential snow flakage at the end may not be a big deal outside the mountains. Well, that stinks. I didn't expect much, but I wanted to see some snow. Nothing worse than cold, miserable rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 http://www.daculaweather.com/4_hpc_sig_lows.php Compare that to some of the runs lately... some bring the LP in too far west. But *If* the surface LP, warmfront stays off to the east then I could see most of the moisture along the coast with almost guarantee a insitu-cad setup and will lock in... keeping temps colder than what guidance is showing. I know this is not a true miller b setup... but a hybrid of miller a/b. But I could very well see this will cause with heavy precip in the mountains and more along the immediate coast. More than the models have been able to grip ahold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 1014 mb low now in the Gulf, with pretty strong CAD: http://www.daculaweather.com/4_spc_meso_analysis_18.php SENIOR DUTY METEOROLOGIST NWS ADMINISTRATIVE MESSAGENWS NCEP CENTRAL OPERATIONS COLLEGE PARK MD1458Z MON NOV 25 201312Z GFS BEGAN ON TIME.12Z RAOB RECAP...70231/MCG - 10142.76805/ACA - 10142.78866/SXM - 10142.72562/LBF - MISSING PART B..FULL REPORT IN FOR THE GFS.78016/BDA - MISSING PART B..FULL REPORT IN FOR THE GFS.72214/TAE - NOT AVAILABLE.CRITICAL WEATHER DAY ...POTENTAL WINTER STORM/HVY RNFLCWD WILL BE IN PLACE FROM 18Z TODAY UNTIL 00Z THURS (27/0000Z).CWD PARTICIPANTS INCLUDE.. NCF..TOC..NCEP.. NWS REGIONS..CENTRAL..SOUTHERN..EASTERN REGIONS.NEWBY/SDM/NCO/NCEP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metwannabe Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 Well, that stinks. I didn't expect much, but I wanted to see some snow. Nothing worse than cold, miserable rain. Well IF the NAM verifies you won't have to deal with cold miserable rain.....you will have to deal with 60+ temps, rain/possible thunder and I'll have to deal with possible severe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 It's difficult to see the system track right into the wedge. I guess it could happen, or the cold could get scoured out quickly, but that process seems to always take longer than the models show. It seems like a track along the coast would be favored. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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