CAD_Wedge_NC Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 The NAM says places like Gastonia/Shelby/Hickory/Lincolnton miss a damaging ice storm by 1 degree. It's that close. Quite a few of us on here live in that corridor. We would not want a repeat of Dec '02. Let's hope for more of a sleet to rain profile vs. the damaging freezing rain to rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 I'd like to see Goofy bringing that 0 line down into Ga like that. I can't remember if we like the Nam, or not, or only inside 12 hours, but I'm going to like it, because it's colder T without a doubt! this event has been a bit more interesting than i thought - we seem to be getting a few indicators that the cad and low dewpoints may give some light icing for a lot of the cad areas, and maybe more than that farther north and west. as queencity said parts of the hickory area miss a big ice storm by a degree. its usually close around here (well ne ga and the upstate more than hickory haha) but with the models tending ever so slightly colder thats all it could take to make this one pan out if it keeps doing that. another degree or two colder and its much more interesting, even here. close and hard to tell from the maps i see with soundings but looks like some precip should fall below freezing. now the heavier may get in fast enough for latent heating to bring up just above freezing. i like all winter wx, including ice, and love a good ice storm. but with these amounts have to say several inches of ice doesnt sound fun with two weeks of no power after lol. i think i saw like an inch and half or two inches in quebec some years back. damage compared to half in to inch was drastic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oconeexman Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 without a doubt! this event has been a bit more interesting than i thought - we seem to be getting a few indicators that the cad and low dewpoints may give some light icing for a lot of the cad areas, and maybe more than that farther north and west. as queencity said parts of the hickory area miss a big ice storm by a degree. its usually close around here (well ne ga and the upstate more than hickory haha) but with the models tending ever so slightly colder thats all it could take to make this one pan out if it keeps doing that. another degree or two colder and its much more interesting, even here. close and hard to tell from the maps i see with soundings but looks like some precip should fall below freezing. now the heavier may get in fast enough for latent heating to bring up just above freezing. i like all winter wx, including ice, and love a good ice storm. but with these amounts have to say several inches of ice doesnt sound fun with two weeks of no power after lol. i think i saw like an inch and half or two inches in quebec some years back. damage compared to half in to inch was drastic I'm with you buddy...I'd take an all rain event till the deform band comes through to see a couple of good snow showers in the end. With all of the rain predicted and cold temps afterward there could be some serious black ice Wed night. Glad were not traveling! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 maybe a little downslope affect? sounds odd i know, but the areas subject to downsloping are also the ones without much snow. and since the temps are sort of marginal anyway (when arent they in the se lol) it wouldnt take but a degree or so to throw a wrench into the snow potential also the infamous warm bubble could be there where the taller mtns to our left screw us by holding the cold air back just long enough for a royal kick in the butt edited to add: bingo!! Here is why you have a snow shadow......Look at the 850mb temps at 60h. You can clearly see that the area right along the eastern slopes stay warmer during the initial stages of the CAA process while areas just to the east have crashing heights and snow. Very interesting indeed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 Even the Rutherford mountains are in the warm zone, interesting to see how this plays out! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 maybe a little downslope affect? sounds odd i know, but the areas subject to downsloping are also the ones without much snow. and since the temps are sort of marginal anyway (when arent they in the se lol) it wouldnt take but a degree or so to throw a wrench into the snow potential also the infamous warm bubble could be there where the taller mtns to our left screw us by holding the cold air back just long enough for a royal kick in the butt edited to add: bingo!! Here is a perfect example Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 Even the Rutherford mountains are in the warm zone, interesting to see how this plays out! What warm zone are you referring to? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 Anyone remember March 1 2009 Upper level low? The lack of snow in the immediate lee of the Blue ridge was caused by the warm bubble, but also the downsloping winds as they changed direction to north and northwest. Areas such as Shelby received over 6 inches of snow and Marion only got an inch at best. http://www4.ncsu.edu/~nwsfo/storage/cases/20090302/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 What warm zone are you referring to? Ok 850's, my mistake Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY18 Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 00z gfs@ 36 pretty similar at 500 compared to 12z@48, ridge in west slightly sharper northern vort slightly stronger and southern s/w a tick sw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 Anyone remember March 1 2009 Upper level low? The lack of snow in the immediate lee of the Blue ridge was caused by the warm bubble, but also the downsloping winds as they changed direction to north and northwest. Areas such as Shelby received over 6 inches of snow and Marion only got an inch at best. http://www4.ncsu.edu/~nwsfo/storage/cases/20090302/ Yep, I remember it well. That's when Robert had 9 inches of thunder snow and the trees fell on his house. If I recall, the northern foothills were the last to change over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 GFS has light snow from hour 66-69 for much of NC...probably about .20 falls as snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 Yep, I remember it well. That's when Robert had 9 inches of thunder snow and the trees fell on his house. If I recall, the northern foothills were the last to change over. We changed over about the same time, but our rates were pitiful due to downsloping, and the best energy staying to the southeast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 Here is why you have a snow shadow......Look at the 850mb temps at 60h. You can clearly see that the area right along the eastern slopes stay warmer during the initial stages of the CAA process while areas just to the east have crashing heights and snow. Very interesting indeed. yep, its pretty frustrating at times. thats when we hear about the snow north south and west (and farther east) while stuck in the cold rain lol thats one advantage if thinking zr over snow. a cad can sneak in just at the surface Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 The temps here have stalled the last 2 hours or so. Looks like its from clouds streaming in too quickly. Precip from radar looks to be racing east as well. If precip gets here at 5 or 6 pm tomorrow , even the small icing would be a no go! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 25/6 right now WB= 20 Now where's the moisture when you need it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 GFS has light snow from hour 66-69 for much of NC...probably about .20 falls as snow. Yup relatively unchanged from 12. But looking closely nam and gfs share likes and differences. Even at this point and time... all it takes is a shift of a hundred miles either way to produce drastic changes. Just a hundred miles in the upper levels would push the heaviest precip off to the east and wrap around snow focused more in the piedmont areas than the mountains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCCatawba Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 The temps here have stalled the last 2 hours or so. Looks like its from clouds streaming in too quickly. Precip from radar looks to be racing east as well. If precip gets here at 5 or 6 pm tomorrow , even the small icing would be a no go! If it's not that then people will be complaining about how they don't have clouds to block the hot sun tomorrow. It looks like the western NC cad regions may see less sunshine tomorrow than I originally thought. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 GFS has light snow from hour 66-69 for much of NC...probably about .20 falls as snow. I say we take it and run with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 Pretty good run for a lot of us, IMO. It's a little better than 18z, if anything. I don't know what the soundings show, though. EDIT: I'm not talking big amounts, just a thump of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 I don't think we get snow on the GFS according to the soundings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller/data/gfs/00/gfs_namer_066_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif looks good anyway! lol for late November Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 yep, its pretty frustrating at times. thats when we hear about the snow north south and west (and farther east) while stuck in the cold rain lol thats one advantage if thinking zr over snow. a cad can sneak in just at the surface Very true. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 GFS and NAM look very similar at hr60. For NC, I see that they show a quick thump of snow in the mountains as the trough axis swings through and enough cold air works in. Hard for me to envision anything more than token flakes or very light amounts east of the mountains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 No moisture left as cold air arrives for KCAE. RH = nil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 GFS and NAM look very similar at hr60. For NC, I see that they show a quick thump of snow in the mountains as the trough axis swings through and enough cold air works in. Hard for me to envision anything more than token flakes or very light amounts east of the mountains. Good point. Only really difference is GFS is ever so slightly a tad bit to the east with the upper trough axis. But really considering agreement overall atm I dont see it likely either. As soon as those winds shift there goes the downsloping winds drying up the atmosphere. Only way imo would be to have the whole upper level pattern shifted east atleast 100 miles < which is still plausible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 without a doubt! this event has been a bit more interesting than i thought - we seem to be getting a few indicators that the cad and low dewpoints may give some light icing for a lot of the cad areas, and maybe more than that farther north and west. as queencity said parts of the hickory area miss a big ice storm by a degree. its usually close around here (well ne ga and the upstate more than hickory haha) but with the models tending ever so slightly colder thats all it could take to make this one pan out if it keeps doing that. another degree or two colder and its much more interesting, even here. close and hard to tell from the maps i see with soundings but looks like some precip should fall below freezing. now the heavier may get in fast enough for latent heating to bring up just above freezing. i like all winter wx, including ice, and love a good ice storm. but with these amounts have to say several inches of ice doesnt sound fun with two weeks of no power after lol. i think i saw like an inch and half or two inches in quebec some years back. damage compared to half in to inch was drastic Yeah, it's a lot trickier for you, being up there closed to the source of the cad. That's why I think you are always in the cat bird seat, but also I think elevation saves you a lot, helping you stay cold, but maybe snow cold as opposed to the zmonster. Down here being so close to the furnace when it goes by, we get crazy changes at different heights in the column, and we'll flop back and forth from rain, to zr, to ip, to sn, even in a cold storm. The thing I love about cad is afterwards, when you hear the..well, we didn't expect that wedge to hold in so strong, or there was just enough cold dry air drawn in to make it a surprise, lol. Chris was/is right to watch the column, and he's expert, and he pretty much got the areas most likely to get some figured right well before now. If this was a colder storm I'd expect that Eatonton line to cave toward me, but I'm mostly expecting some onset sleet, then I'm watching that bit coming in behind. Be in the right spot for that and I could see something. Though hoping for favors after the party is a suckers game, lol. I know you'll take zrain, and I hope you get enough for looks, but not enough for the end of the world, lol. That stuff is just pure destruction to me. I try to dig the beauty, and be at one with it, but I'm only humoring it, and I wish it would leave. With sleet it's different. I wish I could live on Sleet World, and have snow be a nice change up, lol. And where zrain is just a tale told to unruly children Tony Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valkhorn Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 It's still looking pretty good per the 00z GFS and 00z NAM. I don't have info on the Euro of course, but 2 out of 3 isn't bad. This is for East TN to the NC/SC line. Also it looks like the Smoky Mountains may fare well out of this and pick up 6" or more. Nam is giving Knoxville 2", GFS a little over 1". If we got just a dusting I'd be happy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCCatawba Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 Statement as of 3:29 AM EST on November 25, 2013 ... Winter Weather Advisory in effect from 7 PM this evening to7 am EST Tuesday... The National Weather Service in Peachtree City has issued aWinter Weather Advisory for freezing rain... which is in effect from 7PM this evening to 7 am EST Tuesday.* Locations... northeast Georgia mountains... generally north of aline from Chatsworth to Jasper to Dahlonega to Cleveland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCCatawba Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 NWS Raleigh ...past experience with these events that typically results in precipitation reaching the ground up to several hours prior to nwp guidance indicates...suggests freezing rain...mixed with sleet at the onset...will become likely over the southern and western Piedmont around or shortly after 06z...and result in light ice accrual ranging from 0.10-0.15 along the Yadkin River...to a hundredth or two roughly from a kmeb to krdu to khnz line. To the east...mainly only virga...with a spotty trace of a cold sprinkle...is expected. Low temperatures ranging from the upper 20s to lower 30s...with those over the eastern Piedmont/sandhills and coastal plain occurring before midnight...and slowly warming thereafter. With the above in mind...a Winter Weather Advisory (typically a first period product) will likely be issued later today for a portions of the Piedmont...mainly the southern and western. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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