Potential Thanksgiving Event

[burgertime]

Here's the clown map I saw posted on Twitter. Funny how far south trace amounts get.

 

 

 

I would have to think if the Euro played out exactly as it shows today at 12z (which it won't I'm sure) that folks in central NC and my area would do a little better giving the direction where the max of moisture was heading in between panels. Just wishful thinking on my part though. 

[superjames1992]

Dr. Yes with a true weenie run.

[Stovepipe]

Just for fun, 12z Euro text for Asheville, NC:

                 2 M     850     SFC     SFC     700    6 HR     500    1000 
                 TMP     TMP     PRS     RHU     RHU     QPF     HGT     500 
                 (C)     (C)    (MB)    (PCT)   (PCT)   (IN)    (DM)     THK 
TUE 00Z 26-NOV  -0.2     0.7    1030      43     100    0.00     571     547    
TUE 06Z 26-NOV  -0.7     1.4    1027      74      99    0.06     570     548    
TUE 12Z 26-NOV   1.1     4.9    1023      98      96    0.32     569     551    
TUE 18Z 26-NOV   3.6     6.3    1016      98      99    0.48     568     555    
WED 00Z 27-NOV   4.0     7.2    1010      98     100    0.66     566     558    
WED 06Z 27-NOV   4.2     5.3    1008      98     100    0.41     563     557    
WED 12Z 27-NOV  -0.4     2.0    1009      93      97    0.29     559     552    
WED 18Z 27-NOV  -2.0    -1.8    1008      86     100    0.17     552     545    
THU 00Z 28-NOV  -3.4    -7.3    1015      81      96    0.43     548     536    
THU 06Z 28-NOV  -7.4    -7.2    1020      84       2    0.05     555     539    
THU 12Z 28-NOV  -9.1    -2.8    1025      86       6    0.00     557     537    

[Heisy]

The EURO hangs the ULL back, the first low scoots through, the cold rushes east, and then the ULL finally makes its way north, which is when we get our "snow"  

[superjames1992]

The EURO hangs the ULL back, the first low scoots through, the cold rushes east, and then the ULL finally makes its way north, which is when we get our "snow"

My memory might be fuzzy and I'm on my phone so I can't really check, but didn't 3/1/09 behave similarly with the ULL hanging back?

[franklin NCwx]

 

Just for fun, 12z Euro text for Asheville, NC:

                 2 M     850     SFC     SFC     700    6 HR     500    1000 
                 TMP     TMP     PRS     RHU     RHU     QPF     HGT     500 
                 (C)     (C)    (MB)    (PCT)   (PCT)   (IN)    (DM)     THK 
TUE 00Z 26-NOV  -0.2     0.7    1030      43     100    0.00     571     547    
TUE 06Z 26-NOV  -0.7     1.4    1027      74      99    0.06     570     548    
TUE 12Z 26-NOV   1.1     4.9    1023      98      96    0.32     569     551    
TUE 18Z 26-NOV   3.6     6.3    1016      98      99    0.48     568     555    
WED 00Z 27-NOV   4.0     7.2    1010      98     100    0.66     566     558    
WED 06Z 27-NOV   4.2     5.3    1008      98     100    0.41     563     557    
WED 12Z 27-NOV  -0.4     2.0    1009      93      97    0.29     559     552    
WED 18Z 27-NOV  -2.0    -1.8    1008      86     100    0.17     552     545    
THU 00Z 28-NOV  -3.4    -7.3    1015      81      96    0.43     548     536    
THU 06Z 28-NOV  -7.4    -7.2    1020      84       2    0.05     555     539    
THU 12Z 28-NOV  -9.1    -2.8    1025      86       6    0.00     557     537    

Nice! January temps with snow on the ground as we cut the Turkey.

[Cold Rain]

Posted this in the other thread:

The Euro looks good at face value. But speaking from experience, the cold air almost always takes longer to work in than the models will show. Unless you have a big phasing storm pretty far south and east, there's nothing to really rapidly crash the heights and the boundary layer temps. Sure, the southern stream H5 low is incoming, but you've got to get the winds to rapidly shift out of the north and northwest and get the cold to make it over the mountains in time before the moisture leaves.

This is why you see so many more snow maps (clown maps) throughout the winter than actual snow, in these cold chasing moisture situations.

I'm not saying it can't/won't happen in this case. But right now, I would take any snowfall products with a huge grain of salt. We want that H5 low to be stronger and slower and really take a southerly track.

[NCCatawba]

EURO snowfall map is almost as complete crap as when it showed 2feet earlier this Fall for the foothills. I just don't see us meeting or exceeding our seasonal snowfall by Thanksgiving. I would side with the GFS showing nothing, if I just wanted to end up being right.

[tnweathernut]

Posted this in the other thread:

The Euro looks good at face value. But speaking from experience, the cold air almost always takes longer to work in than the models will show. Unless you have a big phasing storm pretty far south and east, there's nothing to really rapidly crash the heights and the boundary layer temps. Sure, the southern stream H5 low is incoming, but you've got to get the winds to rapidly shift out of the north and northwest and get the cold to make it over the mountains in time before the moisture leaves.

This is why you see so many more snow maps (clown maps) throughout the winter than actual snow, in these cold chasing moisture situations.

I'm not saying it can't/won't happen in this case. But right now, I would take any snowfall products with a huge grain of salt. We want that H5 low to be stronger and slower and really take a southerly track.

I don't disagree, especially for you guys on the other side of the "hill", but I have seen it noted in other threads that the air masses this year seem to be coming in faster and colder than modeled. Just something to keep hopes up!

[griteater]

Posted this in the other thread:

The Euro looks good at face value. But speaking from experience, the cold air almost always takes longer to work in than the models will show. Unless you have a big phasing storm pretty far south and east, there's nothing to really rapidly crash the heights and the boundary layer temps. Sure, the southern stream H5 low is incoming, but you've got to get the winds to rapidly shift out of the north and northwest and get the cold to make it over the mountains in time before the moisture leaves.

This is why you see so many more snow maps (clown maps) throughout the winter than actual snow, in these cold chasing moisture situations.

I'm not saying it can't/won't happen in this case. But right now, I would take any snowfall products with a huge grain of salt. We want that H5 low to be stronger and slower and really take a southerly track.

 

Agree with everything here Cold Rain.  03/01/09 that superjames mentioned was the rare storm that brought rain changing to significant accumulating snow east of the mtns (throw March '93 in there too)...but that '09 storm came out of Montana in the northern branch and brought cold air with it...and it was strong and fairly slow moving, all necessary ingredients in that type of scenario.

 

It's kind of interesting that we have the CMC wanting to push precip out way ahead into the leftover cold dome (ice scenario)...while the GFS/Euro are kind of opposite in holding the precip back and wanting to change it over on the backend...hard to be very enthused about either leading to much wintry weather around here...more potential in the mtns obviously.

[Cold Rain]

Agree with everything here Cold Rain. 03/01/09 that superjames mentioned was the rare storm that brought rain changing to significant accumulating snow east of the mtns (throw March '93 in there too)...but that '09 storm came out of Montana in the northern branch and brought cold air with it...and it was strong and fairly slow moving, all necessary ingredients in that type of scenario.

It's kind of interesting that we have the CMC wanting to push precip out way ahead into the leftover cold dome (ice scenario)...while the GFS/Euro are kind of opposite in holding the precip back and wanting to change it over on the backend...hard to be very enthused about either leading to much wintry weather around here...more potential in the mtns obviously.

Yeah, I'm not feeling the CMC as it's kind of alone right now. Hopefully, that H5 low will trend stronger and slower. We'll see.

[Bevo]

EURO snowfall map is almost as complete crap as when it showed 2feet earlier this Fall for the foothills. I just don't see us meeting or exceeding our seasonal snowfall by Thanksgiving. I would side with the GFS showing nothing, if I just wanted to end up being right.

 

I don't think anyone is buying "all in" on this - the Euro in particular.  This is being driven primarily by the fact that we've had nothing like this to follow for the last two years, and the pattern as it stands now is just abnormal enough to surprise someone.

 

Also, if I just wanted to end up being right, Meteorology would not even be an option .

[Cold Rain]

I don't disagree, especially for you guys on the other side of the "hill", but I have seen it noted in other threads that the air masses this year seem to be coming in faster and colder than modeled. Just something to keep hopes up!

Yup! Good strong highs have been very efficient and bringing the cold so far. We want that northern stream system to hustle up!

[The Alchemist]

My memory might be fuzzy and I'm on my phone so I can't really check, but didn't 3/1/09 behave similarly with the ULL hanging back?

I seem to remember it hung back, but I thought it ran along the GoM then OTS

 

 

Edit… Sorry , I type too slow… I defer to griteater and Cold Rain on this one…  Back to Lurking and learning now

[Steven_1974]

Just as long as it isn't ice!

[Lookout]

It's really bullish on ice here, according to the type maps.

*corrected some of the wording below*. More bullish than I intended it to be.

 

 

I think it is on to something.  It has temps in the 30 to 34 degree range with dewpoints in the low to mid teens when precip arrives. Even taken the slowest model, the gfs, wetbulbs are -1 to -3c across north ga and the carolinas tuesday morning. Gfs of course doesn't have precip arriving until late morning or afternoon where as the euro, canadian, and the nam (extrapolating) has precip starting during the overnight hours. If the faster models are right, I see a subfreezing cold pocket developing over the typical damming regions. Winds are east to northeast through 950mb and IF temps are manage to drop below freezing, temps will only warm through the action of latent heat release and the rain itself falling through the warm layer. What it means to me is possibly a  6 to 12 hour period of freezing rain in the typical favored areas of the euro/canadian pan out.

By 18z the euro has around 1.5 inches of rain falling by that time here while the canadian has 1.5 to 2 inches roughly just through hour 96 (tue 12z).

 

If we reach our wetbulbs that are below freezing monday night, i don't see anything to prevent at least some/a little  ice accumulations if the euro and canadian are right on the timing of precip before going to rain. Even using their timing, 850mb temps warm enough by late tue morning to make it all rain (8 to 10c)

 

The back end upper low/snow is interesting obviously. Euro is really cold at the surface (showing 32 degree temps not far from atlanta at 18z wed). Probably would get screwed here due to my location being the last to get the low to mid level cold thanks to the mountains but the euro is certainly eye candy for many.

[bobbitt]

where the cut off low goes, so goes the snow fall going too be interesting .

[griteater]

I seem to remember it hung back, but I thought it ran along the GoM then OTS

 

 

Edit… Sorry , I type too slow… I defer to griteater and Cold Rain on this one…  Back to Lurking and learning now

 

No problem, it did hang back, but it (the 500mb low) originated out of Idaho/Montana and was strong

 

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/NARR/2009/us0228.php

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/NARR/2009/us0301.php

[buckeyefan1]

*corrected some of the wording below*. More bullish than I intended it to be.

 

 

I think it is on to something.  It has temps in the 30 to 34 degree range with dewpoints in the low to mid teens when precip arrives. Even taken the slowest model, the gfs, wetbulbs are -1 to -3c across north ga and the carolinas tuesday morning. Gfs of course doesn't have precip arriving until late morning or afternoon where as the euro, canadian, and the nam (extrapolating) has precip starting during the overnight hours. If the faster models are right, I see a subfreezing cold pocket developing over the typical damming regions. Winds are east to northeast through 950mb and IF temps are manage to drop below freezing, temps will only warm through the action of latent heat release and the rain itself falling through the warm layer. What it means to me is possibly a  6 to 12 hour period of freezing rain in the typical favored areas of the euro/canadian pan out.

By 18z the euro has around 1.5 inches of rain falling by that time here while the canadian has 1.5 to 2 inches roughly just through hour 96 (tue 12z).

 

If we reach our wetbulbs that are below freezing monday night, i don't see anything to prevent at least some/a little  ice accumulations if the euro and canadian are right on the timing of precip before going to rain. Even using their timing, 850mb temps warm enough by late tue morning to make it all rain (8 to 10c)

 

The back end upper low/snow is interesting obviously. Euro is really cold at the surface (showing 32 degree temps not far from atlanta at 18z wed)

 Probably would get screwed here due to my location being the last to get the low to mid level cold thanks to the mountains but the euro is certainly eye candy for many.

Don't worry.....you are in good company 

[calculus1]

*corrected some of the wording below*. More bullish than I intended it to be.

 

 

I think it might be on to something.  It has temps in the 30 to 34 degree range with dewpoints in the low to mid teens when precip arrives. Even taken the slowest model, the gfs, wetbulbs are -1 to -3c across north ga and the carolinas tuesday morning. Gfs of course doesn't have precip arriving until late morning or afternoon where as the euro, canadian, and the nam (extrapolating) has precip starting during the overnight hours. If the faster models are right, I see a subfreezing cold pocket developing over the typical damming regions. Winds are east to northeast through 950mb and IF temps are manage to drop below freezing, temps will only warm through the action of latent heat release and the rain itself falling through the warm layer. What it means to me is possibly a  6 to 12 hour period of freezing rain in the typical favored areas of the euro/canadian pan out.

By 18z the euro has around 1.5 inches of rain falling by that time here while the canadian has 1.5 to 2 inches roughly just through hour 96 (tue 12z).

 

If we reach our wetbulbs that are below freezing monday night, i don't see anything to prevent at least some/a little  ice accumulations if the euro and canadian are right on the timing of precip before going to rain. Even using their timing, 850mb temps warm enough by late tue morning to make it all rain (8 to 10c)

 

The back end upper low/snow is interesting obviously. Euro is really cold at the surface (showing 32 degree temps not far from atlanta at 18z wed). Probably would get screwed here due to my location being the last to get the low to mid level cold thanks to the mountains but the euro is certainly eye candy for many.

 

Look out below!!!  We have a Lookout sighting!  Welcome back, sir.  Nothing like a potential T-Day storm to bring you back into the forum.  (And, I know this is really banter.)

 

/slinks away quietly...

[FLweather]

While it is still plausible to have northern stream interaction. Maybe or maybe not to the extent of the euro clown snow maps but the 500 mb level.

But also the op gfs is not showing any thing like that... the ensemble members show sort of the same thing the euro was showing.

 

Op euro

 

 

 

GEFS

[Lookout]

Just as long as it isn't ice!

It sure would be highly unusual to get a major ice storm (or any ice for that matter) before thanksgiving.  So just based on climo, it probably won't happen. But it's hard to ignore the things that are favoring at least a little right now. What will be interesting to watch is the 950mb layer. If it is below or close to freezing  it  will favor freezing rain for a little while as the actual surface layer will be pretty cold. If the 950mb temps are warmer and the direction is wrong (south instead of east), temps are likely to warm much faster. The 950mb layer is usually a requirement for any significant ice accumulations and/or maintianing freezing surface temps. I've seen systems before where the surface itself is cold enough but if the cold air is not deep enough, ie up to 950mb, you don't normally reach the surface wetbulbs and even if you do, it warms quickly.

 

Taking the gfs at face value, it has 950mb temps a bit above freezing with subfreezing wetbulbs at that level tuesday morning. gfs certainly implies rain to me but it's Hard to tell if it's because it's slower or if it's "real"..in other words regardless of timing 950mb to surface temps warm enough to keep it mostly rain. nam is actually below freezing up to 925mb with precip knocking on the door by 0z tue.

 

One more thing to keep in mind is how heavy the rain is. If it is very heavy, temps could warm faster as the heavy rain "drags" warmer air down. Essentially what we are talking about is probably just 1 or 2 degrees between a pretty decent ice event or just a little freezing rain before going over to a very cold rain.

 

gfs is rain but If it comes in faster like the other models with soundings like this at start of precip, it's hard to see us not having freezing rain for at least a little while at the start.

 

fwiw, here is the 84 hour nam sounding for gainesville

RESS HGT(MSL) TEMP DEW PT  WND DIR  WND SPD HPA       M      C     C       DEG     M/S   E = Estimated Surface Height  991.   330.    1.6  -10.2    71.1     2.7  975.   460.    1.6  -11.2    82.7     6.3  950.   668.   -0.1  -11.9    88.3     7.4  925.   881.   -1.9  -14.1    97.4     7.6  900.  1099.   -0.3  -30.5   138.4     9.0  875.  1324.    0.7  -31.9   154.8     7.7  850.  1557.    2.3  -25.4   154.0     6.9  825.  1798.    3.2  -13.4   159.9     5.4  800.  2047.    2.6   -8.3   175.4     5.0  775.  2303.    1.5   -9.1   199.8     7.0  750.  2567.   -0.3  -12.6   220.8     9.8  725.  2836.   -2.8  -13.8   222.9    10.4  700.  3113.   -3.4   -7.0   228.9    12.1  650.  3700.   -3.8   -4.8   256.0    11.3  600.  4330.   -5.0   -9.1   275.0    12.5  550.  5010.   -8.6  -15.7   281.1    13.1

[burgertime]

 

It sure would be highly unusual to get a major ice storm (or any ice for that matter) before thanksgiving.  So just based on climo, it can't happen. But it's hard to ignore the things that are favoring it right now. What will be interesting to watch is the 950mb layer. . If it is below or close to freezing  it  will favor freezing rain for a little while as the actual surface layer will be pretty cold. The 950mb layer is usually a requirement for any significant ice accumulations and/or maintaining freezing surface temps. I've seen systems before where the surface itself is cold enough but if the cold air is not deep enough, ie up to 950mb, you don't normally reach the surface wetbulbs and even if you do, it warms quickly. Right now it's very close.

 

 

 

 

That has been the bane of our existence for many storms the past two winters. Something about if you don't learn from history you are doomed to repeat it? Of course I was shocked that we eek'd out a flurry a few weeks ago so maybe our luck (bad luck for ice) is changing. 

[Lookout]

That has been the bane of our existence for many storms the past two winters. Something about if you don't learn from history you are doomed to repeat it? Of course I was shocked that we eek'd out a flurry a few weeks ago so maybe our luck (bad luck for ice) is changing. 

 

Based just on climo alone, it would be very surprising if we get any at all (especially in ga) . I normally just rely on actual model output/numbers but you can't ignore climo in this case imho.   Despite my posts above (which i went back and reworded) , I favor mostly a very cold rain thanks in part just because of climo. That's not to say there won't be any front end freezing precip for a little while though.  Despite models normally not doing very well with evaporational cooling, it's hard to ignore the lack of freezing temps on them right now too. Been burned a few times thinking that at face value/surface temps/wetbulbs, etc, it should be freezing rain but only ending up with 33 and rain. In most of those cases, it ended up several degrees colder than model projection (3 to 5 degrees) but it still was just a cold rain. I always hated it when the models show 38 and rain but it actually pans out to be 33 and rain....yet despite the bust, the models were right in sensible weather conditions. Could very well be another one of those cases.

[bobbitt]

the euro ensembles sends the upper level energy right too central nc .

[Wow]

12z gefs member p003 - really bombs out the low off the NC coast and creates enough dynamic cooling to put down some big snow totals for W NC. A majority of the ensemble members bury the central and northern Apps.  So if you want a chance at snow, hope for a stronger UL.

 

[GaWx]

Based just on climo alone, it would be very surprising if we get any at all (especially in ga) . I normally just rely on actual model output/numbers but you can't ignore climo in this case imho.   Despite my posts above, I favor mostly a very cold rain thanks in part just because of climo. That's not to say there won't be any front end freezing precip, just not a lot of it.  Despite models normally not doing very well with evaporational cooling, it's hard to ignore the lack of freezing temps on them right now too. Been burned a few times thinking that at face value/surface temps/wetbulbs, etc, it should be freezing rain but only ending up with 33 and rain. In most of those cases, it ended up several degrees colder than model projection (3 to 5 degrees) but it still was just a cold rain. I always hated it when the models show 38 and rain but it actually pans out to be 33 and rain....yet despite the bust, the models were right in sensible weather conditions. Could very well be another one of those cases.

 

 Welcome back Lookout!! Long time, no read! How have you been feeling? You da man.

 

 Based on my research, I actually did find one major ZR storm for N GA in November that was really bad as far south as Alpharetta and did result in enough ZR in Atlanta, itself, to cause a few outages: 11/24/1971. At KATL, the high was only 39 and the low was 31 with a respectable 0.83" of liquid falling.

 

 So, based on climo, it is highly unlikely to be a bad icestorm in N GA, but it is still possible.

[FallsLake]

Just added the RAH long range discussion to the November topic (forgot this was active), but RAH is definitely keeping an eye on this situation.

Here it is:

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THOUGH FRIDAY/...

AS OF 255 PM FRIDAY...

...A PROLONGED COLD PERIOD EXPECTED NEXT WEEK WITH A STORMY PERIOD

LATE TUESDAY INTO LATE WEDNESDAY...

NWP GUIDANCE FROM THE DETERMINISTIC 12Z GFS/EC EFS ARE FAIRLY

SIMILAR IN THEIR HANDLING OF THE STRONG SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH THAT

MOVES FROM TEXAS ON EARLY TUESDAY...ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY

AND OFF THE EAST COAST ON THURSDAY. BOTH DETERMINISTIC RUNS SHOWS A

WEAK SURFACE LOW AROUND 1006 MB DEVELOPING IN THE NORTHERN GULF OF

MEXICO AROUND 19Z TUESDAY AND THEN SLOWLY DEEPENING TO AROUND 998 MB

BY 18Z WED WHEN IT IS LOCATED NEAR THE OUTER BANKS. THE GFS IS A

LITTLE BIT MORE PROGRESSIVE AND FURTHER EAST THAN THEN EC WHICH

CLOSES OFF THE TROUGH AT 500MB AND IS ACCORDINGLY A LITTLE SLOWER

WITH THE EASTWARD ADVANCEMENT OF THE TOUGH AXIS AND THE SFC LOW.

AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM A MODIFIED ARCTIC AIRMASS EASES OFF THE MID

ATLANTIC COAST EARLY TUESDAY.

TUESDAY SHOULD START OFF COLD WITH INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS. SURFACE

DEW POINTS SHOULD START OFF IN THE TEENS AS THE DEPARTING HIGH

PRESSURE SYSTEM DEPOSITS A RESIDUAL DRY AIR MASS IN OUR REGION.

PRECIPITATION SHOULD OVERSPREAD CENTRAL NC FROM THE SOUTHWEST AS

IMPRESSIVE DEEP LAYER ISENTROPIC LIFT DRIVES GULF AND ATLANTIC

MOISTURE OVER THE STABLE AIRMASS. AN IN SITU COLD AIR DAMMING EVENT

IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AFTER THE ARRIVAL OF PRECIPITATION AND RESULT

IN A SHARP TEMPERATURE GRADIENT FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. A

PROMINENT WARM NOSE IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP COINCIDENT WITH THE

PRECIPITATION GENERATION MECHANISMS SO THAT COMBINED WITH THE

RETREATING HIGH SHOULD PRECLUDE SNOW AT THE ONSET. BUT GIVEN THE LOW

DEW POINTS LATER SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR A NUISANCE VARIETY

OF RAIN/ICING AT THE ONSET...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND

NORTHWEST PIEDMONT AND IF THE PRECIP ARRIVES CLOSER TO DAYBREAK.

HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE 30S IN THE TRIAD BUT WILL

LIKELY MAKE IT IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S IN THE SOUTHEAST AS AN

INVERTED TROUGH/COASTAL FRONT WILL HOLD NEAR THE COASTAL PLAIN. IT

COULD POTENTIALLY BE WARMER ACROSS THE NORTHEAST IF PRECIP HOLDS OFF

UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY.

EXPECT FAIRLY WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION ACROSS CENTRAL NC ON TUESDAY

NIGHT AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE MOVES UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THE

EVOLUTION OF SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW WILL

DETERMINE WHICH LOCATIONS GET THE MOST PRECIP AND HOW THE

TEMPERATURE PATTERN SET UP. AT THIS POINT THE GREATEST PRECIPITATION

AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY FALL ACROSS THE EASTERN PIEDMONT AND COASTAL

PLAIN. AFTER THE PRECIPITATION ARRIVES AND DIABATIC COOLING LOCKS IN

TEMPERATURES DURING THE EVENING...EXPECT TEMPS TO HOLD IN THE MID

30S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AND MID 40S SOUTHEAST.

THE SURFACE LOW WILL BE MOVING NORTHEAST AWAY FROM OUR REGION ON

WEDNESDAY. AS THE LOW LEVEL CENTER MOVES NORTH OF OUR LATITUDE...THE

LARGE PRECIPITATION SHIELD PRODUCED BY THE WARM ADVECTION SHOULD

EXIT EARLY IN THE MORNING. THE NEXT CONCERN IS THE EVOLUTION OF THE

UPPER LEVEL LOW WHICH RECENT GUIDANCE SUGGEST IT MAY BE CLOSED OFF

OVER THE NORTHERN GULF EARLY WEDNESDAY THEN OPEN UP AS THE TROUGH

BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED LATER WEDNESDAY. WITH THIS SCENARIO THE

PRECIPITATION MAY REDEVELOP/FILL IN/PERSIST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND

EVENING AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES OVERHEAD. TRYING TO PIN POINT

MESOSCALE DETAILS OUT 120 HOURS IS FOOLHARDY BUT THIS TYPE OF

PATTERN CAN RESULT IN THE PRECIPITATION MIXING WITH OR CHANGING TO

WET SNOW BEFORE IT ENDS. IF BANDED PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS AND IF THE

TIMING OF THE PRECIPITATION LINGERS INTO THE EVENING...THE IMPACT

COULD BE GREATER. SO THIS IS SOMETHING TO MONITOR WITH THE GREATEST

THREAT OF WINTER PRECIPITATION IN THE CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED

LOCATIONS ACROSS THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN PIEDMONT. HIGHS WEDNESDAY

SHOULD RANGE FROM AROUND 40 IN THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT AND THE LOWER

50S ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. COLD ADVECTION ARRIVES DURING THE EVENING

WITH TEMPERATURES LIKELY FALLING BELOW FREEZING NOT TOO LONG AFTER

MIDNIGHT. LOWS SHOULD FALL INTO THE MID 20S TO AROUND 30.

HPC GUIDANCE MAY BE A BIT OVERDONE BUT INDICATES PRECIPITATION

TOTALS FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WOULD RANGE BETWEEN 1 AND 2

INCHES WITH THE GREATEST AMOUNTS IN THE SOUTHEAST.

COLD AND DRY WEATHER WILL ARRIVE ON THURSDAY AND PERSIST FRIDAY AS A

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BECOMES WESTERLY AND COLD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE

OVER THE PLAINS STATES ON THURSDAY BUILDS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC ON

FRIDAY. EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WITH TEMPERATURES A GOOD 15 TO 20

DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. HIGHS SHOULD RANGE BETWEEN 40-45 WITH LOWS OF

25-30. -BLAES

&&

[dsaur]

Hey, Chris!!  Great to see you posting!  Now I actually think something might get close to happening   Seems like lots of times early chances end up being ice, and as Bevo pointed out this is pretty late for Thanksgiving.  Lots of waa with a storm like this, but the latest run had it further south and thats always good.  Wish there was some reinforcement for that cad.  I remember a lot of years with turkey day cads, and some with ice around Athens too.  Hope you are feeling a lot better in case this is the year for that way over due Jan. zrain duzy, lol.  We'll have lots of cleaning up to do one year, you and me   Tony

[Shawn]

 Welcome back Lookout!! Long time, no read! How have you been feeling? You da man.

 

 Based on my research, I actually did find one major ZR storm for N GA in November that was really bad as far south as Alpharetta and did result in enough ZR in Atlanta, itself, to cause a few outages: 11/24/1971. At KATL, the high was only 39 and the low was 31 with a respectable 0.83" of liquid falling.

 

 So, based on climo, it is highly unlikely to be a bad icestorm in N GA, but it is still possible.

 

Hey man, maybe I should have pmed this.. but it might be useful to others too..  Where on Earth do you get all of this data from?