Shawn Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 Snow skips over KCAE generally on the 18z GFS run. Haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 Courteous to see how much fz rain it's depicting on this run Couldn't find any soundings that would support ZR. Looks like all rain changing to snow on the back end of the system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 Courteous to see how much fz rain it's depicting on this run I suggest a simple handshake and a smile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 Heights falling with the ULL now, it had been stable all day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tyler B Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 I suggest a simple handshake and a smile. It was suppose to be curious lol. I hate auto correct Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillerA Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 https://t.co/r1MdxR11yy, gsp office latest YouTube video. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCCatawba Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 Couldn't find any soundings that would support ZR. Looks like all rain changing to snow on the back end of the system. I think he was talking about the front end winter weather. Still shows it on the new gfs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 I think he was talking about the front end winter weather. Still shows it on the new gfs. Where at? I'm not seeing it at all, but I could have missed it. Even if there is some, I'm thinking it won't amount to much. EDIT: Nevermind, I see it now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oconeexman Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 https://t.co/r1MdxR11yy, gsp office latest YouTube video.They forgot to mention the Lee side screw zone watch! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvegas-wx Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 https://t.co/r1MdxR11yy, gsp office latest YouTube video. Almost makes this out to be a non event outside of the mountains. I still struggle with how much dynamic cooling will take place for tuesday am. It is bone dry out there. Really happy to see the precip totals ramp up though. This thing just keeps getting juicier by the run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCCatawba Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 Front end winter weather on the latest GFS...I didn't check any soundings for accumulations tho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCCatawba Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 Raleigh says a light glaze. So the winter weather advisories may be all the way to Burlington. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 NWS GSP Briefing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 NWS GSP Graphics Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 Lookout, After further close examination this last 30 minutes, I now may be coming more to your side. Here's why: 1. My earlier comments about the 925's not being colder than the 850's were based on the 6z gfs. However, the 12z gfs actually does have cooler 925's than 850's at the start of precip. in virtually all N GA locations and that even lasts into at least a few hours of the precip! So, that's indicative of in situ wedging and a possible stable cold layer near the sfc. 2. I was wrong about the 850's at the start of the precip. I had thought they were in the 6-7C range. Well, they do get to 6-7C pretty quickly but they do, as you said, start mainly at 4-5C. So, that is actually near historical parameters for sig. ZR. Moreover, even though they rise pretty quickly, they largely level off in the 7-8 C range with much (and we're talking significant amounts like near an inch) of the precip. having already fallen. Historically, major ZR has been maintained as long as 850's stayed below about 8C in our area. 3. Wetbulbs are near 31F at the start of precip. So, that does say zr is possible if there's no waa or warm air dragged down from above. So, for these reasons, I have suddenly changed my position totally from very doubtful of any ice at Atl-Ahn and with only a little sleet near the start to thinking some ZR is a realistic possibility and with an outside shot at something significant. So, I'm now in the watching carefully mode of FFC and yourself/others as long as gfs runs continue to look like today's 12z. Edit: That being said, the overall setup is really lousy looking vs. most history as Tony implies. So, I don't know. Some lousy looking situations as Lookout implied still had sig. ZR. Edit #2: 1. I forgot to mention that another historical parameter for sig. ZR that night/the next day, highs the day before not getting above 45 would be met IF the 12 z gfs is not showing a cold bias. It has highs of 43-45. 2. The 12z Euro is coming in colder and with more wedging than the 0z gfs. The 2 meter temp.'s are still too warm (high 30's), but the Euro has a very pronounced warm bias at 2 meters. It is often too warm by 5-10 F during the winter when there is precip. falling in our area. The important thing is that the 12z trend on the Euro is definitely colder and more wedgey. This is why I love cad so much. It just confounds. It's wait until the rain is falling, and take a flashlight to the tree tops time, lol. I doubt there is anything more entertaining than cad, when it comes to will it/won't it. Is it deep enough, is it cold enough, does it stretch far enough into the state,where will the waa erode it to? Will Tony get his sleet, or will that damn warm nose ruin his fun with zrain, or cold rain. Even game time predictions are often wrong, lol. I hope this is the start of a fun, confounding winter, with several no doubt calls just to ease the angst! Tony Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 The above quote was referring to tomorrow's highs. Regarding today, it has already hit 47 at ATL and AHN at 2 PM today as compared to the 12Z gfs' forecast highs of only 45. So, its cold bias is already showing for today and raises caution flags that tomorrow's GFS forecasted highs of 44-45 may be a few degrees too cold. If so, it would get into the high 40's tomorrow instead of mid 40's. Based on history, that would make it quite a bit more difficult to get ZR of any significance into the main CAD areas of N GA the following night/day (Mon. night- Tuesday) due to more cooling needed to get to 32. We'll see. Mon. night/Tuesday's precip. type forecast is admittedly a very tough one with this rather unique setup. that makes for fun in forecasting and following how forecasts verify. Yeah, Ptree City has me for 48 tomorrow, and 38 at night, so the cad isn't going to be in here with much strength. I'd need to see 35 at onset, to cool down enough as the rain falls. Beauty of cad though is we won't know until it falls for sure If I don't get over 42 or 43 tomorrow, I'll be more encouraged, by any gifts Goofy is promoting. It would help if that heat machine would cruise by further south, and it's mini me, if there is a mini me, too. Tony Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 Ok folks......lets keep the banter where it belongs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 FWIW, RAH isn't just calling for rain, Brick. I see mentions of snow, sleet, and freezing rain littered throughout my point forecast Monday night-Wednesday night... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 FWIW, RAH isn't just calling for rain, Brick. I see mentions of snow, sleet, and freezing rain littered throughout my point forecast Monday night-Wednesday night... OK, I just saw that update from RAH that someone posted recently, and the graphic showed all rain for central NC. I don't care if it is just a little bit, I just want to see some snow and not just have all rain. Going back and reading the posts throughout today, it looks like the GFS is still giving central NC some snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 You can see the current low and the next piece of energy dropping down out of Canada: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 Snow probs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Alchemist Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 I've Been out splitting wood and loading the wood boxes inside.... Looks like I did the right thing today!!! Did the models ever figure out the low dew point problems from earlier today? Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 The GFS and Euro both give my area a nice 2-4 inch hit Tuesday into Wednesday. I'd settle for 1/2 that. JKL is saying SEKY will at minimum see 1 inch, with 2-4/3-5 not out of the question. They are predicting 6-9 hours of heavy snow with the trailing low. MRX says 3-6 in their highest elevations, with 1-2 basically north of I-40, with more upslope likely than they had been predicting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 The GFS and Euro both give my area a nice 2-4 inch hit Tuesday into Wednesday. I'd settle for 1/2 that. JKL is saying SEKY will at minimum see 1 inch, with 2-4/3-5 not out of the question. They are predicting 6-9 hours of heavy snow with the trailing low. MRX says 3-6 in their highest elevations, with 1-2 basically north of I-40, with more upslope likely than they had been predicting. All I really want is just to see the ground white on Thanksgiving! Normally in these types of situations it takes longer to change over to snow than modeled. Hopefully the storm will be amped enough to make the transition quick. The more phased solution should really help the favored western facing slopes get some good upslope snow even though it may not last all the long. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 All I really want is just to see the ground white on Thanksgiving! Normally in these types of situations it takes longer to change over to snow than modeled. Hopefully the storm will be amped enough to make the transition quick. The more phased solution should really help the favored western facing slopes get some good upslope snow even though it may not last all the long. Yeah, the changeover does seem to take longer, I get to watch it creep down the mountain towards me often. 500 feet makes a major difference sometimes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 All I really want is just to see the ground white on Thanksgiving! Normally in these types of situations it takes longer to change over to snow than modeled. Hopefully the storm will be amped enough to make the transition quick. The more phased solution should really help the favored western facing slopes get some good upslope snow even though it may not last all the long. I agree this looks like this could be a significant event especially for the upslope areas. Here in Haywood looks like we will see it all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 NAM is rolling...out to 12h, looks less amped. Let's see what this run has to say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 NAM is rolling...out to 12h, looks less amped. Let's see what this run has to say. So far... tit for tat. Really no major difference from 12,18. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 At 24h the vort is 100 miles southwest of the 18z position.....baby steps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oconeexman Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 NAM has a nice wedge into Ne Ga at 925mb as the precip arrives tomorrow night. Should make for at least some sleet action. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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