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Potential Thanksgiving Event

strongwxnc

By strongwxnc,
in Southeastern States

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GaWx

GaWx

Posted
Posted

For KATL, 0Z Sun GFS prediction for 10PM Mon night had the 850 at 5 C but the 925 at 6 C. However, on today's 12Z run, it still has the 850 at 5 C but it now has the 925 down to only 2 C indicative of wedging/colder, denser air nearer to the surface which is harder to warm. Also, whereas the 0Z had 0.58" of qpf to fall by sunrise Tue., the 12Z run has a whopping 1.04" of qpf to fall by sunrise accompanied by stronger ENE winds. The GFS has gotten much earlier with the sig. qpf over the last few days.

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WxJordan

WxJordan

Posted
Posted

Shots fired in western NC. Winter Storm Watches for 0.25". Rest of area will probably be advisory criteria come Monday.

 

I absolutely agree with this. Those areas are in the favored upslope areas and they could see isolated higher amounts of freezing rain before the change over to rain occurred. I believe the foothills and mountain locations, such as Asheville, Hickory, Wilkesboro, Boone, Rutherfordton, etc. will be placed in a freezing rain or winter weather advisory. This could cause havoc for Tuesday morning travel.

 

Rain will be extremely heavy with this storm regardless. Some areas could see 2-3 inches of rain, with isolated higher amounts possible. This would give Asheville the all time record for most rain in one year. They only need .04 of an inch to reach this mark.

 

Slide4.GIF

 

Slide5.GIF

 

This system has been very difficult to track because of the northern stream; however, I believe any snow will be limited to flurries on the backside of the storm. It depends on a couple of factors, but the best moisture will be leaving quickly. We have to hope that the cold air comes in quickly, and I do not see this happening. The mountains may see some snow showers and light accumulations.

 

18z NAM is trending better!

 

After looking at the 18z NAM though, it does show a good amount of moisture left over and some snow over locations in North and South Carolina, with a few flakes possible in Georgia.

 

I have an update on the website; however, I covered most of the information in this post. I still believe that most areas will not see much more than a few flurries from this system. http://www.wxjordan.com/weather/discussions/216-thanksgiving-week-storm-all-access-coverage

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NEGa

NEGa

Posted
Posted

For KATL, 0Z Sun GFS prediction for 10PM Mon night had the 850 at 5 C but the 925 at 6 C. However, on today's 12Z run, it still has the 850 at 5 C but it now has the 925 down to only 2 C indicative of wedging/colder, denser air nearer to the surface which is harder to warm. Also, whereas the 0Z had 0.58" of qpf to fall by sunrise Tue., the 12Z run has a whopping 1.04" of qpf to fall by sunrise accompanied by stronger ENE winds. The GFS has gotten much earlier with the sig. qpf over the last few days.

with our luck watch the heavier rains move in quickly after we just drop to or just below freezing and then bam out comes the latent heat release with the heavier rains lol

 

edited to add: thankfully we are just about in the "nowcast" zone where we can just watch radar, temps, dewpoints etc tomorrow.  and even better its not days away and looking worse each day. this is at least sort of like i remember the cads we used to have lol

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NCCatawba

NCCatawba

Posted
Posted

I see that this is through hour 42 do you have a map showing hours after that. I'm seeing .16" of freezing rain for Greensboro on this run. I would say Surry Wilkes and Yadkin will need to be under a warning. Also the nam for Gso is spitting out over 5" of rain

 

hr 45 shows the potential for the north-west Piedmont but that's it.

 

I'm reading all the AFD's...Greenville/Blacksburg are waiting 1-2 more runs before issuing a larger Winter Storm Watch with a Winter Weather Advisory on both sides of it. 

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DopplerWx

DopplerWx

Posted
Posted

DT has been wishcasting this thing since the start.  just trashing the gfs every run it didn't show a monster nor'easter and saying it is trash outside 90hrs, now he is saying it is worthless outside 72hrs.  then again he is pandering to his audience.  

 

I'm eager to see the 18z run of the gfs as the euro and nam both came a little closer to the gfs solution.  lets see if it holds serve,

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NCCatawba

NCCatawba

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I would say Surry Wilkes and Yadkin will need to be under a warning. Also the nam for Gso is spitting out over 5" of rain

 

Those counties look a bit too cold to be able to meet the criteria. Greenville thinks all snow or snow/sleet mix initially the further north you go would cut down on the ice total. This leaves areas like Henderson the best chance of damaging ice. They could be wrong about this tho, it's a very delicate situation with the timing, wet bulbing, etc.

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NEGa

NEGa

Posted
Posted

granted i may be out of practice with two winters of not much to watch on the models, but it looks like the latest run of the RAP (20 utc) has precip moving into n ga by hours 17 and 18.  soundings show the temps and dewpoints lower, and more in line with a lot of our discussions here.  even has the temp below freezing by then

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FLweather

FLweather

Posted
Posted

gfs comin in with more moisture on the backend. gives western thru central nc/sc snow thru 78 hrs, trend is quickly becoming our friend.

 

gfs_6hr_snow_acc_nc_29.png

 

 

18z GFS, hr 72:

 

mr14.png

 

 

If the UL in the SW can maintain itself by staying closed the whole trek across the S/SE then very good possibility that the secondary low becomes the primary low.

 

But really energizes the ull over the gulf stream.

gfs_namer_069_700_rh_ht.gif

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