Potential Thanksgiving Event

[GaWx]

I'm still at a loss as to why the models are not showing more cooling at the surface via evaporational cooling. The nam/gfs have temps in the upper 30s and dewpoints below zero late tomorrow afternoon (which is pretty rare even during the strongest of wedges or winter time ahead of a system). The cold/dry air is also pretty deep, at least initially, and extends up to 925mb.

Yet despite no waa in the boundary layer (easterly flow) and extremely dry dewpoints, the models continue to show the dewpoints increasing before precip even starts and then barely having any response at all after precip starts.

For example, the gfs has surface temps around 35 with a dewpoint of around 6 or 7 degrees here at 0z tuesday with similar dry and cold temps up through 925mb. Gfs shows Precip starting around 03z tuesay but the temp only drops a fraction of a degree yet the dewpoints jump from 6 degrees to 21 degrees.

I am really having a hard time seeing this happening. If we had warm air advection and much warmer/moist dewpoints just above the surface, I would say it makes sense. But in this case, initially, the cold and dry air extends up pretty high..even up to 925mb or so before

warming drastically. Once this warming hits the 950mb level, I would expect temps to rise but until then I see no justification for the drastic increase in dewpoints at the surface before the precip arrives and the lack of temperatures dropping in response to precip starting.

It's hard to say they are wrong though since every model keeps showing essentially the same thing as far as surface temps/dewpoints...but I just can't figure out why there wouldn't be more of a temperature drop over north ga and the carolinas.

I can't find a single ZR event of significance in the Atl-Ahn area in the past with 850's anywhere close to that warm at onset and which continue to steadily warm from there. Also, there is no stable wedging of the colder, heavier air near the surface once precip. starts. Note that 925's are not colder than 850's from the start of the precip. Normally, the 925's are colder with wedging. I think the key is the lack of any wedging. That's the difference between this and other events with similarly low dewpoints in my opinion. That along with these too warm 850's from the start tell me not to get excited. Maybe I'll be wrong, but at least I'm giving reasons for my opinion.

[Lookout]

I can't find a single ZR event of significance in the Atl-Ahn area in the past with 850's anywhere close to that warm at onset and which continue to steadily warm from there. Also, there is no stable wedging of the colder, heavier air near the surface once precip. starts. Note that 925's are not colder than 850's from the start of the precip. Normally, the 925's are colder with wedging. I think the key is the lack of any wedging. That's the difference between this and other events with similarly low dewpoints in my opinion. That along with these too warm 850's from the start tell me not to get excited. Maybe I'll be wrong, but at least I'm giving reasons for my opinion.

850mb temps are around 4 or 5c to start with. There has been plenty of times where we have gotten freezing rain with temps like that. Second, I have gone back in the past many times and have noted the significance of 950mb temps with respect to freezing precip and have found they are much more important than 925mb temps in terms of the potential for a big temperature drop via evaporational cooling in the beginning.

 

That's not to say if the 925mb temps are warm it's a good thing but certainly not as important for 950 temps. Hell, at first even the 925mb temps/wetbulbs are pretty low anyway over a good portion of north ga and the carolinas when precip starts. .  Lastly I'm not arguing for no warming we will warm up pretty quick once waa kicks in in earnest between 950mb  and 900mb...i'm only talking about the initial lack of evaporational cooling the models are showing in the start before we warm up.  Based on my experience and studying these events countless times, what normally works and what doesn't, and including every factor, I think the models are wrong here and we get a least a few hours of freezing rain before going over to rain once the waa really kicks in at the 900 to 950mb level.

 

I would be utterly shocked if the temp only drops literally a fraction of a degree after precip starts with such a profile. i've NEVER seen it drop so little given such a huge temp/dewpoint spread. Even during events where the air was even shallower and warmer we still have gotten down to 33 before when the models would show temps 3 or 4 degrees warmer. 

 

12z gfs fwiw, has athens and other areas around 32.5 with a dp of 28 around hour 42. And before that the temp is 1.9c and only drops to 1.6c while the dp jumps from 6 to 21. That's almost laughable.

 

At any rate, It won't be a big deal even if it does though. 

[FLweather]

I'm still at a loss as to why the models are not showing more cooling at the surface via evaporational cooling. The nam/gfs have temps in the upper 30s and dewpoints below zero late tomorrow afternoon (which is pretty rare even during the strongest of wedges or winter time ahead of a system). The cold/dry air is also pretty deep, at least initially, and  extends up to 925mb. 

 

Yet despite no waa in the boundary layer (easterly flow) and extremely dry dewpoints, the models continue to show the dewpoints increasing  before precip even  starts and then barely having any response at all after precip starts.

For example, the gfs has surface temps around 35 with a dewpoint of around 6 or 7 degrees here at 0z tuesday with similar dry and cold temps up through 925mb. Gfs shows Precip starting around 03z tuesay but the temp only drops a fraction of a degree yet the dewpoints jump from 6 degrees to 21 degrees.

 

I am really having a hard time seeing this happening. If we had warm air advection and much warmer/moist dewpoints just above the surface, I would say it makes sense. But in this case, initially, the cold and dry air extends up pretty high..even up to 925mb or so before warming drastically. Once this warming hits the 950mb level, I would expect temps to rise but until then I see no justification for the drastic increase in dewpoints at the surface before the precip arrives and the lack of temperatures dropping in response to precip starting.

 

It's hard to say they are wrong though since every model keeps showing essentially the same thing as far as surface temps/dewpoints...but  I just can't figure out why there wouldn't be more of a temperature drop over north ga and the carolinas.

 

Thats a good point. Looks like to me with the temps and DPs a insitu cad would lock in. Even around here...  shows a good N flow prior than for some reason switch to S and dps go up. But then the winds shift to a NE direction. Logically would think once the winds start back NE so would colder dryer air.

[DopplerWx]

with the second low weds night i think it will be a matter of who gets under the heavy precip band as to who sees snow.  probably will be a small section of sc/nc who luck out.

[NEGa]

850mb temps are around 4 or 5c to start with. There has been plenty of times where we have gotten freezing rain with temps like that. Second, I have gone back in the past many times and have noted the significance of 950mb temps with respect to freezing precip and have found they are much more important than 925mb temps in terms of how likely hood there is the potential for a big temperature drop via evaporational cooling in the beginning.

 

That's not to say if the 925mb temps are warm it's a good thing but certainly not as important for 950 temps. Hell, at first even the 925mb temps/wetbulbs are pretty low anyway over a good portion of north ga and the carolinas when precip starts. .  Lastly I'm not arguing for no warming we will warm up pretty quick once waa kicks in in earnest between 950mb  and 900mb...i'm only talking about the initial lack of evaporational cooling the models are showing in the start before we warm up.  Based on my experience and studying these events countless times, what normally works and what doesn't, and including every factor, I think the models are wrong here and we get a least a few hours of freezing rain before going over to rain once the waa really kicks in at the 900 to 950mb level.

 

I would be utterly shocked if the temp only drops literally a fraction of a degree after precip starts with such a profile. i've NEVER seen it drop so little given such a huge temp/dewpoint spread. Even during events where the air was even shallower and warmer we still have gotten down to 33 before when the models would show temps 3 or 4 degrees warmer. 

 

12z gfs fwiw, has athens around 32.5 with a dp of 28 around hour 42. But just north of here, it shows the temp going from 1.7c to 1.6c after precip starts. That's almost laughable.

 

At any rate, It won't be a big deal even if it does though. 

 

i have been looking at the dewpoints and temps and it does seem a bit odd - maybe this is one of the times where the cooling will happen and models finally catch up LOLOLOL

 

even without a reinforcing ne wind to lock in the CAD you would think in-situ would give at least a little frozen precip.  i guess anything in november is good, esp after the last couple of years.  everything points to a pretty rapid warm up, but a little zr at the onset would be nice to see.  fortunately we dont have too much longer to find out i guess

 

edited to add: i can think of at least a couple of times where there was a quite dramatic temp drop as the precip started falling from the upper 30s to below freezing.  fingers crossed the models are not picking it up this time lol

[WeatherNC]

12z Canadian would indicate a 6hr+ ZR event for the foothills and western piedmont. Colorful map on the front side, central TN does well on the backside, nice band. The model hints a secondary wave, but too much interaction and everything colsidates quickly off the NE coast.

http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html

[dsaur]

i have been looking at the dewpoints and temps and it does seem a bit odd - maybe this is one of the times where the cooling will happen and models finally catch up LOLOLOL

 

even without a reinforcing ne wind to lock in the CAD you would think in-situ would give at least a little frozen precip.  i guess anything in november is good, esp after the last couple of years.  everything points to a pretty rapid warm up, but a little zr at the onset would be nice to see.  fortunately we dont have too much longer to find out i guess

 

edited to add: i can think of at least a couple of times where there was a quite dramatic temp drop as the precip started falling from the upper 30s to below freezing.  fingers crossed the models are not picking it up this time lol

I have trouble with cad producing way down the cad trail thru Atl and here, when the reinforcing isn't there big time.  It takes a good one to push all the way in here, and into Ala.  Sure we can get the winds, but the temps step down gradually from you to me, even with a good secondary push.  I can see a lot of us in Ga seeing some onset sleet, that's almost a given with this kind of deal, but I'd only bet on that, and maybe some nuisance zrain for you and around Athens.  I don't know how many times I've hovered at 32.7 or something, while you guys were getting the zrain ( which actually doesn't bother me at all, lol)  Getting it to push all the way into Atl is really hard most times.  Easier to predict than to produce.  Don't know how many times I've seen cad zrain stop around Eatonton.  It's like there's a wall.  Athens, Eatonton, up your way, ok,  everyone else.... Not for you!!   It makes it so much simpler when the cold air gets fully established out ahead, and we are just waiting on the precip.  And when the waa comes to knock the walls down, the back up cold rides in like the cavalry....but that's usually winter stuff, not late fall, lol.  T

[GaWx]

850mb temps are around 4 or 5c to start with. There has been plenty of times where we have gotten freezing rain with temps like that. Second, I have gone back in the past many times and have noted the significance of 950mb temps with respect to freezing precip and have found they are much more important than 925mb temps in terms of the potential for a big temperature drop via evaporational cooling in the beginning.

That's not to say if the 925mb temps are warm it's a good thing but certainly not as important for 950 temps. Hell, at first even the 925mb temps/wetbulbs are pretty low anyway over a good portion of north ga and the carolinas when precip starts. . Lastly I'm not arguing for no warming we will warm up pretty quick once waa kicks in in earnest between 950mb and 900mb...i'm only talking about the initial lack of evaporational cooling the models are showing in the start before we warm up. Based on my experience and studying these events countless times, what normally works and what doesn't, and including every factor, I think the models are wrong here and we get a least a few hours of freezing rain before going over to rain once the waa really kicks in at the 900 to 950mb level.

I would be utterly shocked if the temp only drops literally a fraction of a degree after precip starts with such a profile. i've NEVER seen it drop so little given such a huge temp/dewpoint spread. Even during events where the air was even shallower and warmer we still have gotten down to 33 before when the models would show temps 3 or 4 degrees warmer.

12z gfs fwiw, has athens and other areas around 32.5 with a dp of 28 around hour 42. And before that the temp is 1.9c and only drops to 1.6c while the dp jumps from 6 to 21. That's almost laughable.

At any rate, It won't be a big deal even if it does though.

Lookout,

After further close examination this last 30 minutes, I now may be coming more to your side. Here's why: 1. My earlier comments about the 925's not being colder than the 850's were based on the 6z gfs. However, the 12z gfs actually does have cooler 925's than 850's at the start of precip. in virtually all N GA locations and that even lasts into at least a few hours of the precip! So, that's indicative of in situ wedging and a possible stable cold layer near the sfc. 2. I was wrong about the 850's at the start of the precip. I had thought they were in the 6-7C range. Well, they do get to 6-7C pretty quickly but they do, as you said, start mainly at 4-5C. So, that is actually near historical parameters for sig. ZR. Moreover, even though they rise pretty quickly, they largely level off in the 7-8 C range with much (and we're talking significant amounts like near an inch) of the precip. having already fallen. Historically, major ZR has been maintained as long as 850's stayed below about 8C in our area. 3. Wetbulbs are near 31F at the start of precip. So, that does say zr is possible if there's no waa or warm air dragged down from above.

So, for these reasons, I have suddenly changed my position totally from very doubtful of any ice at Atl-Ahn and with only a little sleet near the start to thinking some ZR is a realistic possibility and with an outside shot at something significant. So, I'm now in the watching carefully mode of FFC and yourself/others as long as gfs runs continue to look like today's 12z.

Edit: That being said, the overall setup is really lousy looking vs. most history as Tony implies. So, I don't know. Some lousy looking situations as Lookout implied still had sig. ZR.

Edit #2: 1. I forgot to mention that another historical parameter for sig. ZR that night/the next day, highs the day before not getting above 45 would be met IF the 12 z gfs is not showing a cold bias. It has highs of 43-45.

2. The 12z Euro is coming in colder and with more wedging than the 0z gfs. The 2 meter temp.'s are still too warm (high 30's), but the Euro has a very pronounced warm bias at 2 meters. It is often too warm by 5-10 F during the winter when there is precip. falling in our area. The important thing is that the 12z trend on the Euro is definitely colder and more wedgey.

[DopplerWx]

thru 54 lp is further sw and precip is further west towards la on the euro.

 

EDIT: lp is much slower through 72, right over florence, sc.  precip stretching back to central ga.  compared to 00z where the lp was over richmond and ga was dry. and at 78 the lp seems to be transferring to the coast off the outer banks. not sure on temps but my snowfall maps show a dusting over the eastern carolinas.

[Shawn]

Where exactly do you live? I'm guessing up near Newberry Co on the other side of Lake Murray? I could only hope for an inch of sleet  One thing the models do agree on is the moisture and it sure is needed around here.

BTW.....sleet is perfect for throwing on the catchers gear and riding the sled down the street. (Yes, catchers gear as I'm old and do not appreciate battle wounds as much as I did when I was younger )

 

Indeed it would 

 

That is a perfect day for fire, football, friends/family

 

 

I'm up here on the South side of Lake Murray.  Not far from the town of Lexington proper.

[GaWx]

thru 54 lp is further sw and precip is further west towards la on the euro.

The 12z Euro is coming in colder at the sfc and at 850 along with more wedging. I think this is somewhat of a signal of caution regarding zr possibilities in the main cad areas of N GA to W NC. The Euro has a pronounced warm bias at 2 meters in the Se US when there is sig. precip. falling into dry air during winter. It is often 5-10 degrees. So, where it shows high 30's, it can easily be zr in this case. Also, as noted, these high 30's were low 40's on the 0z Euro (colder trend).

[superjames1992]

If the GGEM verified, it's going to be ugly here and in most of the northwestern Piedmont and foothills.

[NCCatawba]

Sounding via Panovich...for Charlotte. 

 

[Shawn]

If the GGEM verified, it's going to be ugly here and in most of the northwestern Piedmont and foothills.

 

The GGEM has been pretty consistent for days showing an ice/mess in a lot of areas.  Kind of hard to totally discount a model that's been stuck on it this long now.  If it still shows the same situation @ 00z, these other models might be playing catchup to it to an extent.

 

06z had a lot of members saying snow as far south as KCAE (with some showing extreme ice) but the 12z (havent seen the ensembles yet etc) showed a lot less of a chance.  Currently, the Euro actually dropped a track of snow across North Central SC into NC (being more further North).  So, with that said, if I had to take a model of choice right now, it would be a blend of the Canadian and GFS.  GFS is coming to a much more realistic solution (but you cant predict weather based on climo alone), and the Canadian is just utterly consistent and set in it's ways.

[Shawn]

Sounding via Panovich...for Charlotte. 

 

 

If you enable "Bourgouin Precip Type" is removes the sleet and snow from that image.  The precip-type algorithm is pretty good.  The 0.17" of ice is still there at the onset after a brief period of rain to cool it down.

 

Bufkit shows freezeing rain from 4am-7am for CLT Tuesday morning.

[DopplerWx]

robert just mentioned on fb that the euro caved to the gfs just now at 12z.  i still think the gfs has the right idea and there will be a small band of snow under the heavy precip band that forms weds afternoon/night.

[WeatherNC]

robert just mentioned on fb that the euro caved to the gfs just now at 12z. i still think the gfs has the right idea and there will be a small band of snow under the heavy precip band that forms weds afternoon/night.

I don't know if it caved, more like they are meeting somewhere in the middle. Not complete separation of the streams like the GFS was showing over the past couple days, but not a full on phase cutting a single slp well inland. With the late hit, the Euro has two areas of low pressure along the frontal boundary, similar to the GFS but not quite separated as much. Keep on eye on this, we would want greater separation between the two which is indicative of less interaction, with more potential of a backside snow event.

[Shawn]

Here is the GEFS plumes for KCAE from 06z:

 

Here is the GEFS plumes for KCAE from 12z:

 

Sorry, the CLT ones aren't loading.   either way, big difference and much more realistic.

[NCCatawba]

 

The 0.17" of ice is still there at the onset after a brief period of rain to cool it down.

 

Bufkit shows freezeing rain from 4am-7am for CLT.

 

That would surely make warning criteria for the north-west Piedmont, foothills and mountains if Charlotte saw that much. Doubtful, but possible I suppose. I would think .17" would be closer to the blue ridge. 

 

WPC now off the chart with a 95% chance in the foothills.

 

[Shawn]

 

 

 

That would surely make warning criteria for the north-west Piedmont, foothills and mountains if Charlotte saw that much. Doubtful, but possible I suppose. I would think .17" would be closer to the blue ridge. 

 

WPC now off the chart with a 95% chance in the foothills.

 

 

 

 

Yeah, one thing in CLTs favor (if it does ice up a bit) is that it will warm and start to go to rain pretty fast to make it less of a hassle if the Bufkit application itself is to be believed for the 12z GFS.  May I add that the SREF members are slowly showing some frozen precip for areas of SC and lots of NC. 

[calculus1]

 

 

 

That would surely make warning criteria for the north-west Piedmont, foothills and mountains if Charlotte saw that much. Doubtful, but possible I suppose. I would think .17" would be closer to the blue ridge. 

 

WPC now off the chart with a 95% chance in the foothills.

 

 

In interest of full disclosure, that's a 95% chance of greater than 0.01 inch.  If you increase the amounts to 0.10 or 0.25 (ice storm criteria); they're much lower.  However, all that said, the Hickory/Lenoir/Morganton area does have the greatest chance (~10%) according to the WPC for ice storm levels of freezing rain.

[BlizzardWarning]

robert just mentioned on fb that the euro caved to the gfs just now at 12z.  i still think the gfs has the right idea and there will be a small band of snow under the heavy precip band that forms weds afternoon/night.

 

No way... The EURO turned out to have a better idea than the GFS, which completely emphasized the wrong shortwave in the northern stream.  The UKIE turned out to be the most right model yesterday.  

[Bevo]

No way... The EURO turned out to have a better idea than the GFS, which completely emphasized the wrong shortwave in the northern stream.  The UKIE turned out to be the most right model yesterday.  

 

Nothing has turned out to be right - it hasn't happened yet. 

 

***EDIT***

 

And to just be clear, Robert is talking primarily about the phasing that's been advertised on the Euro:

 

(From Facebook)

 

"Today's European Model has switched toward the GFS idea all along , of no phase. Both models have a double, strung out low on the Coastal Plain on Wednesday. Quite a switch for the European run which has been showing a more consolidated, phased system, sometimes west, sometimes east, of the Apps..."

 

"The new EUROPEAN run now also has that small relative humidity secondary axis (weak def. band) after the main batch of rain on Wednesday, matching something like what GFS has been showing for days now. Not sure I buy that, but now the European is showing this, so this is another case where European could be falling in line with smaller details that could have an interesting effect on real weather at the surface. Look at the European's new secondary deformation, a function of NOT phasing, and it could be real, or could be overdone.

Just something for parts of Alabama, Georgia the Carolinas and Virginia to watch evolve on Wednesday...if the air is cold enough to support snow, and if this secondary is real. Don't think it would be much, but it could be a little surprising, dusting or a quick burst of snow as this feature moves over your location."

[NCCatawba]

NWS thinks a winter weather advisory may be needed for the Piedmont. No word if it will be advisory or Winter Storm Watch for the blue ridge yet. GSP, Raleigh and Blacksburg all think sleet/snow may mix in initially with the freezing rain. 

[mackerel_sky]

TWC going with a low of 36 tomorrow night, and RAIN for my backyard, no mention of ice at all!

[GaWx]

Edit #2: 1. I forgot to mention that another historical parameter for sig. ZR the next day, highs the day before not getting above 45 would be met IF the 12 z gfs is not showing a cold bias. It has highs of 43-45.

 

The above quote was referring to tomorrow's highs. Regarding today, it has already hit 47 at ATL and AHN at 2 PM today as compared to the 12Z gfs' forecast highs of only 45. So, its cold bias is already showing for today and raises caution flags that tomorrow's GFS forecasted highs of 44-45 may be a few degrees too cold. If so, it would get into the high 40's tomorrow instead of mid 40's. Based on history, that would make it quite a bit more difficult to get ZR of any significance into the main CAD areas of N GA the following night/day (Mon. night- Tuesday) due to more cooling needed to get to 32. We'll see. Mon. night/Tuesday's precip. type forecast is admittedly a very tough one with this rather unique setup. that makes for fun in forecasting and following how forecasts verify.

[NCCatawba]

The above quote was referring to tomorrow's highs. Regarding today, it has already hit 47 at ATL and AHN at 2 PM today as compared to the 12Z gfs' forecast highs of only 45. So, its cold bias is already showing for today and raises caution flags that tomorrow's GFS forecasted highs of 44-45 may be a few degrees too cold. If so, it would get into the high 40's tomorrow instead of mid 40's. Based on history, that would make it quite a bit more difficult to get ZR of any significance into the main CAD areas of N GA the following night/day (Mon. night- Tuesday) due to more cooling needed to get to 32. We'll see. Mon. night/Tuesday's precip. type forecast is admittedly a very tough one with this rather unique setup. that makes for fun in forecasting and following how forecasts verify.

 

I won't be too stressed out on the highs tomorrow...a lot is dependant on cloud cover. All it takes is a slight break in the late evening over the CAD regions to negate the afternoon temp. My backyard dp is -3! 

[DaculaWeather]

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA

246 PM EST SUN NOV 24 2013

 

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>021-030-031-041-250730-

DADE-WALKER-CATOOSA-WHITFIELD-MURRAY-FANNIN-GILMER-UNION-TOWNS-

CHATTOOGA-GORDON-PICKENS-DAWSON-LUMPKIN-WHITE-FLOYD-BARTOW-

CHEROKEE-POLK-PAULDING-HARALSON-

246 PM EST SUN NOV 24 2013

 

...TWO ROUNDS OF WINTER WEATHER POSSIBLE IN NORTH GEORGIA THIS

WEEK...

 

A GULF LOW WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE AREA STARTING MONDAY NIGHT AND

INTO WEDNESDAY. AT THIS TIME COMPUTER MODELS SUGGEST THAT NORTH

GEORGIA COULD SEE FROZEN PRECIPITATION AT THE BEGINNING AND AGAIN

AT THE END OF THE EVENT. THERE ARE STILL DISCREPANCIES IN THE

COMPUTER MODEL SOLUTIONS AT THIS TIME. THE FORECAST IS SUBJECT TO

CHANGE AND FINE TUNING AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE EVENT. BETWEEN THE

TWO EVENTS...RAIN IS EXPECTED AREA-WIDE.

 

EVENT 1...MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...

 

* LOCATIONS...ELEVATIONS ABOVE 2500 FEET IN MURRAY...FANNIN...

  GILMER...UNION...TOWNS...PICKENS...DAWSON...UNION AND WHITE

  COUNTIES.

 

* TIMING...7 PM MONDAY THROUGH 7 AM TUESDAY.

 

* IMPACTS...FREEZING RAIN AND ICE ACCUMULATIONS RANGING FROM A

  TRACE TO 0.15 INCHES...HIGHEST AMOUNTS SHOULD BE AT THE HIGHEST

  ELEVATIONS.

 

* DISCUSSION...COLD AIR CURRENTLY IN PLACE WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE

  OUT AS THE GULF LOW APPROACHES THE AREA. AS A RESULT A SHALLOW

  COLD LAYER WILL EXIST ACROSS THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS IN NORTH

  GEORGIA. RAIN FALLING INTO THIS AIRMASS SHOULD FREEZE AS IT

  MAKES CONTACT WITH THE GROUND. WARM GROUND TEMPERATURES SHOULD

  HELP TO KEEP ACCUMULATIONS LOW. AS THE NIGHT PROCEEDS THE AIR

  TEMPERATURE SHOULD WARM AND THE ICE SHOULD MELT BEFORE OR JUST

  NEAR SUNRISE ON TUESDAY MORNING.

 

* UNCERTAINTIES...COMPUTER MODELS ARE PREDICTING AROUND AN INCH

  OF RAIN TO FALL DURING THIS TIME. THE SPEED AT WHICH THE WARM

  MOVES INTO THE AREA WILL MAKE THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN LIGHT ICE

  ACCUMULATIONS AND POSSIBLY HIGHER THAN FORECAST ACCUMULATIONS.

 

EVENT 2...WEDNESDAY...

 

* LOCATIONS...NORTH OF A BUCHANAN TO CANTON TO CLEVELAND LINE.

 

* TIMING...FROM 3AM WEDNESDAY TO 9AM WEDNESDAY ACROSS WESTERN

  PORTIONS OF NORTH GEORGIA. 7AM TO 7PM ACROSS THE NORTHEAST

  GEORGIA MOUNTAIN COUNTIES. PRECIPITATION WILL BE ENDING FROM

  WEST TO EAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

 

* IMPACTS...SNOWFALL TOTALS UP TO 1.5 INCHES...AND ICE

  ACCUMULATIONS UP TO 0.05 INCHES AT ELEVATIONS ABOVE 2500 FEET IN

  THE NORTHEAST GEORGIA MOUNTAINS.

 

* DISCUSSION...PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE OUT OF THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY

  AS COLD AIR FILTERS IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM. THE MOISTURE AND COLD

  AIR WILL BRIEFLY ALIGN LATE TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY TO ALLOW

  RAIN TO CHANGE OVER TO A SNOW/SLEET MIX ACROSS NORTHWEST

  GEORGIA...PUSHING EAST WEDNESDAY MORNING INTO THE NORTHEAST

  GEORGIA MOUNTAINS. THE EVENT WILL END AS BRIEF FREEZING RAIN OR

  FREEZING DRIZZLE IN THE MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

 

* UNCERTAINTIES...IF WEDNESDAY MORNING LOWS ARE COOLER THAN

  FORECAST...ACCUMULATIONS MAY BE HIGHER. ADDITIONALLY...THE AMOUNT

  OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON HOW QUICKLY

  THE MOISTURE MOVES OUT.

 

STAY TUNED FOR CHANGES IN THE FORECAST AND POSSIBLE

STATEMENTS...ADVISORIES...WATCHES OR WARNINGS FROM YOUR NATIONAL

WEATHER SERVICE IN PEACHTREE CITY.

[DaculaWeather]

New AFD fro FFC issued at 2:58pm: http://www.daculaweather.com/4_afd_ffc.php

The word scary is used... :-)

[NEGa]

New AFD fro FFC issued at 2:58pm: http://www.daculaweather.com/4_afd_ffc.php

The word scary is used... :-)

i just read that lol.  even "scarier" is that we have been discussing the winter wx possibilities this upcoming week and no one has mentioned anything other than nuisance, novelty amounts etc.  they have gone from one extreme to the other with possible CAD events lol.