Thrasher Fan Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 I can't tell if that run of the GFS was good or bad from the posts. Trending towards a better possibility of winter precip. All our apples are now in the ULL basket. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 Soundings say it's a wrap in GA before it gets cold enough Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 I'm just not sure how anyone can say that one model caved to another when there is so much model flip flopping. Still a long ways out with many different possibilities left on the table. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sctvman Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 GFS surface on Meteostar has some ridiculously low highs for Thanksgiving. Not getting out of the mid and upper 30s in the daytime as far S as Charleston with other parts of SC struggling to get above freezing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CandymanColumbusGA Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 Check out this sounding from just southeast of Montgomery Wednesday afternoon off the new GFS.... YUMMY! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 Sounding shows a brief snow for as far south as KCAE from my data. Interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 Sounding shows a brief snow for as far south as KCAE from my data. Interesting. At what hour? The moisture only extends to the -7C layer at hour 96. That's probably only drizzle, freezing drizzle at best(still around 36 at the sfc though) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 Wasn't the Ukie a partial phase this afternoon? yeah rdu that looked quite similar to the 12z UKMet, but maybe slightly less phased Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 At what hour? The moisture only extends to the -7C layer at hour 96. That's probably only drizzle, freezing drizzle at best(still around 36 at the sfc though) I was looking to the west at my area in Lexington. It's barely.. and yes the surface air is enough to cause nothing to stick etc. The line was cutting through the middle of Lexington County.. and I'm on the northern end. Probably a bad idea to say "KCAE". Just used to it being so close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 yeah rdu that looked quite similar to the 12z UKMet, but maybe slightly less phased As others have mentioned, I believe that's a good middle of the road forecast at this time. Somewhere between the over phased bomb of the euro and a little more phasing than the 12z gfs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CandymanColumbusGA Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 Figured I would show this since it just updated on our weather computers. The deform band with the upper level energy hanging back sure does wonders for upstate SC and the rest of NC. I also enjoy the bulls-eye just northwest of Jackson, MS because that's where it gets going early Wednesday morning... Also, the sounding I showed just southeast of Montgomery shows there's the possibility of some frozen precip between the bulls-eye and north Georgia during the afternoon. Should be fantastic to watch unfold over the next few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 My 0Z Goofy clown map shows; Heaviest parts of SE MS and SW AL with 4-6" near AL/MS border. Also, 1-3" Augusta to just N of Columbia to just NE of Charlotte.(heaviest in the middle). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCsandhills Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 My 0Z Goofy clown map shows; Heaviest parts of SE MS and SW AL with 4-6" near AL/MS border. Also, 1-3" Augusta to just N of Columbia to just NE of Charlotte.(heaviest in the middle). what does it say for the NC sandhills? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCCatawba Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 Tuesday, Nov. 26 Few tornadoes in the FL panhandle, extreme south GA, south SC, (and possibly coastal MS and AL in the morning). TOR:CON - 4 FL panhandle; 3 rest of area. Wednesday, Nov. 27 The surface low moves across southern SC and its cold front pushes through FL by mid-afternoon. Isolated damaging gusts and a chance of a tornado from morning through mid-afternoon in the FL peninsula, coastal GA, coastal SC. TOR:CON - 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 what does it say for the NC sandhills? SW of Fayetteville just north of the SC border there is 1-2" in the Sandhills. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 How much for Waycross ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 Tuesday, Nov. 26 Few tornadoes in the FL panhandle, extreme south GA, south SC, (and possibly coastal MS and AL in the morning). TOR:CON - 4 FL panhandle; 3 rest of area. Wednesday, Nov. 27 The surface low moves across southern SC and its cold front pushes through FL by mid-afternoon. Isolated damaging gusts and a chance of a tornado from morning through mid-afternoon in the FL peninsula, coastal GA, coastal SC. TOR:CON - 3 I was thinking on another forum that the severe potential definitely existed based on low track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCCatawba Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 euro finally shaves off the rediculous snow totals. 2" mountains 1" foothills <1" piedmont Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 euro finally shaves off the rediculous snow totals. 2" mountains 1" foothills <1" piedmont GFS vs EURO bout #2. More logical what the Euro shows now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCCatawba Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 Maybe a little closer to 4" along the TN border. Earlier at hr54 euro picks up on some cold air trapped in the foothills...mixture initially then cold rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 Still time to get that ull to cross below Columbus. Please work on that Cman! Whatever the case I'm still looking at good rains so its a win/win. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 Still time to get that ull to cross below Columbus. Please work on that Cman! Whatever the case I'm still looking at good rains so its a win/win. If that happened, there would be a total board meltdown due to the "too far south" deal. I'd love it for CAE though for sure... just unlikely. May I add.. the 18z GEFS ensembles/plumes showed over 1 inch of sleet here (on the high end). Never experienced that amount of sleet or anything close to what you've spoken of. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 If that happened, there would be a total board meltdown due to the "too far south" deal. I'd love it for CAE though for sure... just unlikely. May I add.. the 18z GEFS ensembles/plumes showed over 1 inch of sleet here (on the high end). Never experienced that amount of sleet or anything close to what you've spoken of. Lol, your life holds great experiences for you. You love weather and it will reward your over and over, until you are about done, like Burns. My hopes spring a new this time, every year, because it's a crap shoot, no matter what the signs are, and the impossible has happened to me over and over Hell, I saw Larry predict snow for Savannah, and it happened T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCCatawba Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 NWS Greenville...A screaming S/southeast flow may provide a sufficient cooling mechanism to keep freezing temperatures locked in a bit longer than in other locations. Therefore...while most locations should see under .10 inch of ice...I would not be surprised to see some amounts nearing warning criteria cross the eastern Blue Ridge areas. Feb. 26, 2013 repeat? Need the NAM/EURO to start showing the cold air not leaving so quickly...and for the precip to start sooner on the GFS. Any trends in our favor could easily lead to a full fledge ice storm along the blue ridge Tuesday morning. This will likely be of low confidence until the last day. hr54 nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thrasher Fan Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 6z GFS pretty close to 0z out to hr66. Initial LP maybe a touch further south. ULL taking shape over Texas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCCatawba Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 6z GFS pretty close to 0z out to hr66. Initial LP maybe a touch further south. ULL taking shape over Texas. I'm out to 105. Still gives those in the piedmont a chance of wet snow Wednesday PM into Thursday. hr 90 is a good trend tho for those in the western sections... Goodnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thrasher Fan Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 I'm out to 105. Still gives those in the piedmont a chance of wet snow Wednesday. Goodnight. Indeed. ULL continues to show improvements in precip. Just need it stay consistent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thrasher Fan Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 Hr 90 and Hr93 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 06Z gfs still puts out "snow" on the precip maps for mby and kcae. i feel like it'd be mixed with rain and sleet though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 GSP is advertising some pretty impressive precip. totals! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.