NCCatawba Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 NAM takes the widespread ice pellets and freezing rain away. Mostly cold rain from the instant weather maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 The exact depiction shown by the NAM is irrelevant. Follow the trends, as has been said. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 The trend is our friend right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 Folks, I think that we need to see how low the dews are with this current CAO and how much of that dry air is left behind before the storm arrives. Right now the track and timing is in question. I still believe that freezing rain will not be the predominant p-type in November with a miller A storm. My guess is a mix changing to rain..... possibly ending as some snow. I have seen the HPC freezing rain percentages and it would be quite abnormal if that were to occur. However, stranger things have happened. With all that being said, I would love to see a colder outcome than the GFS is showing. 0z runs should give us a better idea of whether the Euro is out to lunch or not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 Gotta love AccuWx's typical interpretation of any potential storm: the I-95 cities of the NE are the ones most likely to be affected! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 Gotta love AccuWx's typical interpretation of any potential storm: the I-95 cities of the NE are the ones most likely to be affected! Basically if there's one model out there that shows it threatening the NE cities, that's the one their maps will emulate. Even if it's the JMA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oconeexman Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 What worries me the most is Nws is harping on the warm nose and so have a few others. That's usually a sign that the upstate is out of the game for sure...not that we were ever in the line up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thrasher Fan Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 Early on in the 0z GFS and things are trending colder vs 18z **Edit** Out to hr 45 and now warmer. Precip further east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 @60 it is a two contoured low north of 18z...it looks like it's taking a southern angle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 GFS is trending to the Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 the southern UL trended NE a bit... more northern jet interaction? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 As always great disco by the SE crew. Everything has been covered well. Only thing I would ad which is imho.The typical CAD areas in wnc, may get a little snotty with a early onset. GSP has a eyebrow raised about this in the already posted AFD. The deform band the GFS has been showing will be critical for the Mnt areas of WNC, E TN, & extreme SW VA getting a clip of laying snow on the back side. Again as has been posted......if only it was 6 weeks from now. Good early start for the board to hone the forecasting skills. Keep up the good work crew! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 Looks closest to the 6z run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 Big phase bomb coming, DT is going to have a field day with this... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 Big phase bomb coming, DT is going to have a field day with this... Don't know about all that but there is a little more interaction. That northern stream held back a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 Well, it was fun while it lasted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 ULL looks stronger @84 compared to 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 Figures the GFS would now start trending to the Euro. It seems it really doesn't matter what model it is, the GFS and Euro have both been wrong and right at times. It if they are showing different things when it comes to sow around here, the one that is right is usually the one that shows less or no snow. Doesn't matter which one it is, that is the one that ends up getting it right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thrasher Fan Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 Wow we might be on to something here with the upper level low. Hanging back a lot at hr69 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 Euro to the GFS: Ice up son Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 Spoke to soon, partial phase but it trended towards a phased solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 That little bit of northern jet interaction juiced up the UL quite a bit. Def band really putting down the precip at 90. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 Possible snow in NC @99...not much moisture to work with Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 Possible snow in NC @99...not much moisture to work with It'll squeeze out as much precip as it can. Won't take much QPF. Temps and dewpts are crashing hard by then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 much colder run and throws snow in nc and sc at 99-102hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 It'll squeeze out as much precip as it can. Won't take much QPF. Temps and dewpts are crashing hard by then. If the GFS is right I would be willing to bet that ULL holds a little longer than the NAM is showing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 Wasn't the Ukie a partial phase this afternoon? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 this is why you let the run finish before jumping off the cliff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thrasher Fan Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 much colder run and throws snow in nc and sc at 99-102hrs. Also Atlanta eastward towards Athens Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 I can't tell if that run of the GFS was good or bad from the posts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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