Potential Thanksgiving Event

[JoshM]

Loving the GFS trend on this... if the Euro comes on board (which I think it will), this board will explode for the 0z runs. No where near a 02 redux for my area, but definitely something to screw up holiday travel.

[franklin NCwx]

Anyone want to lay out the Euro ensembles from 12z? Support of the OP or further south and east like the GFS?

its not as wrapped up as the op but not like the gfs either.

[Brick Tamland]

It's also funny that the Raleigh discussion says that the GFS has been consistent...which I tend to agree...both models have been fairly consistent...Euro phased and north, GFS non-phased and south...right?  I don't remember every run.

 

GFS remains consistent with the latest run again. And WxSouth is saying the difference between the GFS and Euro really isn't that much, and that he has never seen it this close to call before, but that difference means a whole lot in what we actually get.

 

This is the hardest call between phase and non-phase I think I've ever seen. The ramifications between what GFS shows in that detached upper low, versus full phasing European, are enormous on who gets what. 

 

[dsaur]

Very possible and should be expected. But only looking at the GFS is would continue to funnel in colder/dryer air as the precip moves through.

Well, that's the key because there is a lot of hot air coming up, dead set on making people go over the cliff   You need some "not in my house reinforcement" or it's tears with the rain.  Burns knows, because I bet he has cried like I have...though I'm man enough to admit it Tony

[FallsLake]

GFS remains consistent with the latest run again. And WxSouth is saying the difference between the GFS and Euro really isn't that much, and that he has never seen it this close to call before, but that difference means a whole lot in what we actually get.

Brick, Robert summed it up great. We're hoping for this thing not to phase.

Funny we were actually hoping for a phase with the last system. The euro was wrong with its phase then let's hope it's wrong now.

[jburns]

Well, that's the key because there is a lot of hot air coming up, dead set on making people go over the cliff   You need some "not in my house reinforcement" or it's tears with the rain.  Burns knows, because I bet he has cried like I have...though I'm man enough to admit it Tony

 

Nope, can't say that I have.  At least not since I was in 6th grade.  I know where I live.

[FallsLake]

Well, that's the key because there is a lot of hot air coming up, dead set on making people go over the cliff   You need some "not in my house reinforcement" or it's tears with the rain.  Burns knows, because I bet he has cried like I have...though I'm man enough to admit it Tony

So true. We need this cold/dry air to stay close, so when it does start pushing back in it doesn't have far to travel. GFS would do that..

[Brick Tamland]

Brick, Robert summed it up great. We're hoping for this thing not to phase.

Funny we were actually hoping for a phase with the last system. The euro was wrong with its phase then let's hope it's wrong now.

 

 Maybe the Euro just isn't good with handling the phases and wants to overdo it. That's what happened last time.

[griteater]

On the 12z, 10 of the 12 GFS members showed the non-phase / separate stream solution.  By my count, 8 of the 12 show the non-phase on the 18z members.  So, not as convincing as the 12z, but still favoring the non-phased solution.

[WeatherNC]

One other thing I will add as this has been a very noticeable trend in recent years - the ECMWF has had a major tendency to overphase over the past few years. We just saw an example with the Arctic front that brought some snow behind it, and I think we could be seeing the same thing again. The fact that the GFS - arguably the strongest model over the past 6-8 months - is beginning to lock into a solution and has ensemble support, actually makes me lean towards it vs. the ECMWF. I will be very curious to see if the Euro starts to lean away from the phase at 00z, because even that may be all the indication we need to see which direction this is headed.

 

Could not agree more, the EC underwent more upgrades over the past year or two, think there were two major, and it's almost like the enhanced resolution is a double edged sword.  The model clearly suffers from an over-amplification bias at this range with volatile setups.  The GGEM used to be the major player juicing up every system, now the Euro seems to do it.  I like the middle of the road, split the difference, some interaction but limited, more than what the GFS shows, but less then most other guidance.  The GFS has pretty good ens support, unsure about the EC indv as I do not have access.  That gives weight in my opinion, not saying it will not trend towards more interaction because I think it will, just not as much as the EC/GGEM.  Verification somewhere in the middle, two waves, crapshoot at this point which one is stronger, second is clearly more favorable for p-type issues.  If the first wave is primary, indicative of more interaction but still late, precip amounts with the secondary are lower as best UL forcing is already well to the NNE.  If the first wave is more fleeting and primary development is in response to the southern stream, more QPF, but with marginal temps.  As I mentioned yesterday, a damned if it does, damned if it does not setup, in order to not be damned we need something in the middle.

[griteater]

Good summary again WeatherNC.  If, if, we get the separate stream solution, you still need to see that southern piece to be strong in order to induce enough cooling

[Cold Rain]

Good summary again WeatherNC. If, if, we get the separate stream solution, you still need to see that southern piece to be strong in order to induce enough cooling

I would suppose that this is not quite as tenuous a situation as we often find ourselves in with these ULLs, in that often times, the ULL itself is the only mechanism to generate air cold enough for frozen. In this case, if we do get a totally separate solution, and the northern stream system outruns the southern stream one enough, HP will be building in, funneling in air from an Arctic source. It's not the strongest HP in the world, but it's not one of those 1020 ones either.

IF, IF, IF, that southern stream system is slower than modeled, and IF, IF, IF it is stronger than modeled, then we'll have both dynamic cooling and fairly legitimate cold air transport to work with...better than many marginal events we tend to chase throughout the winter months. That's a lot of IFs, but that's the way it goes down here.

[griteater]

In this case, if we do get a totally separate solution, and the northern stream system outruns the southern stream one enough, HP will be building in, funneling in air from an Arctic source. It's not the strongest HP in the world, but it's not one of those 1020 ones either.

 

I had been looking for this all along and had pretty much given up on it...the 18z GFS was the first run to achieve it

[WxJordan]

I posted a video update on the website tonight. There are basically two solutions, and both have a chance of occurring. Regardless, there looks to be a chance of freezing rain Tuesday Morning. The worst part is it would occur in the morning hours and would be light, which would cause just a very thin layer of ice on the area roads. This would not be good. After this, there is questions on whether the low moves up the Apps or stays surpressed and moves off the coast. Regardless, it looks hard for it to snow in some locations of the Carolinas. I was looking at the GFS skew t in Lincolnton, and the upper level temperatures may be too warm above 850 mb to support snow. As I moved to Lenoir, the temperatures were still slightly above freezing aloft; however, it would be possible for it to snow further north as the warm nose would be less. These details are something we can handle once we get the track down. No doubt, a very interesting storm to watch and track over the next few days.

Something else to note will be the cool temperatures. Many areas in western North Carolina will not have the chance to hit 50° over the next week, which does not happen very often in November.

[kvegas-wx]

News 14 carolina dropping some snowflakes into their Tuesday forecast and also overnight Wed. This system will quickly have everyones attention. Especially with the damage out west and the bone chilling cold.

Looking forward to some late night PBP the next couple of evenings. Burger....you delivering the good newz?

[Shawn]

Just got around to checking the 18z GFS.. man it's real close for mby to see a period of ZR.. and that's pretty darn South as that second band of precip pulls through.

 

Looking at the GEFS Plumes, more members are on board with one maxing out at .46 ice here (way too much I think).  The reason I'm paying attention to this is the models have been pretty gung ho on Columbia being pure rain, and this image is going the total opposite way.

 

[Cold Rain]

I had been looking for this all along and had pretty much given up on it...the 18z GFS was the first run to achieve it

HP this year is the real deal. I mean, when is the last time we had a 1050 HP rolling into the US? If we can get enough time between the northern and southern systems, it should help out.

[burgertime]

News 14 carolina dropping some snowflakes into their Tuesday forecast and also overnight Wed. This system will quickly have everyones attention. Especially with the damage out west and the bone chilling cold.

Looking forward to some late night PBP the next couple of evenings. Burger....you delivering the good newz?

 

Probably tonight I'll be up for the Euro...however this week I have some very important meetings for work so I have to get my sleep in. I will be around for the normal runs though at least on Monday.

[BIG FROSTY]

Probably tonight I'll be up for the Euro...however this week I have some very important meetings for work so I have to get my sleep in. I will be around for the normal runs though at least on Monday.

Come on man, you can sleep come spring!

[jburns]

Probably tonight I'll be up for the Euro...however this week I have some very important meetings for work so I have to get my sleep in. I will be around for the normal runs though at least on Monday.

 

if you're not going to be here, I doubt they will even bother to run the Euro.

[burgertime]

Come on man, you can sleep come spring!

 

Without a job I can't pay for those fancy SV maps lol. 

Looks like the NAM might be falling back on it's more Euro look. That energy up north looks to be faster compared to it's 18z run and the southern energy is hanging back a tad. Who knows where it ends up though just my guess we get a little different solution.

[burgertime]

if you're not going to be here, I doubt they will even bother to run the Euro.

 

 

You mean they've been running this entire summer? 

[Wow]

NAM trending to the GFS.  More separation between the streams

 

http://www.americanwx.com/models/index.html?&model=nam&run_time=00z&param=500mbHGHT&map=NA&run_hour=60&loop=trend

[packbacker]

NAM definitely has more seperation between northern/southern energy than 12z run. Definitely more GFS like.

[lilj4425]

NAM trending to the GFS. More separation between the streams

http://www.americanwx.com/models/index.html?&model=nam&run_time=00z&param=500mbHGHT&map=NA&run_hour=60&loop=trend

It's like Ghostbusters: "don't cross the streams." Bloo Q Kazoo will never die.

[Wow]

NAM definitely has more seperation between northern/southern energy than 12z run. Definitely more GFS like.

 

Still phases it and draws the low up the piedmont but it is trending.. and that is what's important here.

[franklin NCwx]

Seems like the southern wave has slowed. Its also a few hundred miles east of me this run instead of over head

[griteater]

Looks like nearly all rain on the front end precip on the NAM in the NC foothills...prominent warm nose with sfc wet bulbing not cold enough for frz rain.

[CAD_Wedge_NC]

Looks like nearly all rain on the front end precip on the NAM in the NC foothills...prominent warm nose with sfc wet bulbing not cold enough for frz rain.

 

NAM will find the correct solution about 24 hours before game time. Until then, you should ignore it (even if it shows a blizzard)

[Blue_Ridge_Escarpment]

NAM will find the correct solution about 24 hours before game time. Until then, you should ignore it (even if it shows a blizzard)

 

Yes, main thing to look for at this stage is trends.  And the trend is that the NAM trended closer to GFS.  Shifted a few hundred miles.