NCCatawba Posted November 23, 2013 Share Posted November 23, 2013 Up to a 30% chance of Ice Storm Warning Criteria from near Hickory, Lenoir and North Wilkesboro. Over a 70% chance of just seeing a little ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted November 23, 2013 Share Posted November 23, 2013 low is slower thru 75 and a tad further south than 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted November 23, 2013 Share Posted November 23, 2013 almost identical to 12z at 90hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted November 23, 2013 Share Posted November 23, 2013 18z and 12z GFS are pretty much the same the low is a little south and east and slower. Out to 105 now and something wintery is falling along I-40. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted November 23, 2013 Share Posted November 23, 2013 I believe this is the third run in a row the GFS has been fairly consistent. Maybe it's on to something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted November 23, 2013 Share Posted November 23, 2013 @111 snow is breaking out around the I-85 corridor in upstate SC and points north.; Thickness is sketchy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCCatawba Posted November 23, 2013 Share Posted November 23, 2013 Instant weather maps suggest large area of ice pellets in NC (several hours)...with freezing rain in the surrounding areas (not shown here). Then to freezing rain to cold rain and ending. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted November 23, 2013 Share Posted November 23, 2013 If 18z is correct with our 850 temps then this is just going to be a sloppy mess on Thanksgiving. Looks like it starts as ZR moves to snow then IP then back to ZR for many in NC and the upstate of SC. IF that low comes trekking through the SE though I'll bet it stays strong to the coast. 18z weakens it once it makes it into SC. Typically on these bowling ball lows they stay stronger than the models usually show. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted November 23, 2013 Share Posted November 23, 2013 gfs remains really consistent on the 2nd lp placement, only issue is temps. low just slides off the coast and never really gets going. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted November 23, 2013 Share Posted November 23, 2013 Tony's pretty close. Back to 1879, it is about 3 years in 10 for singles or colder. Below 0 is ~1 in 20 years. KATL: Period/# yrs. singles or lower/# yrs. subzero 1879-1900: 12/3 1901-1920:: 7/0 1921-1940: 8/0 1941-1960: 4/0 (1950, 51, 58, 59) 1961-1980: 8/2 (62, 63, 66, 67, 70, 72, 76, 77) 1981-2000: 8/2 (81-3, 85-6, 89, 94, 96) 2001-2012: 1/0 (2003) So, about one every three years since 1879 has had a single or lower. Average coldest of year is in the low to middle teens. Decade with most years with singles or colder: 1980's with 6 (actually 6 in 9 years). However, 9 year period with most was 1893-1901 with 7. Most years in a row with singles or colder: 4 (1884-7). No singles or lower: 1/29/1940-11/24/1950: 10 years, 9 months, 27 days 2/3/1951-2/16/1958: 7 years, 14 days ***1/25/2003-present: 10 yrs., 10 months...new record long (since 1879) just beating 1940-50 but still counting. But the general idea is that we're in the midst of a relatively warm period not unlike 1941-57. However, snowwise, it has been much snowier recently since 1941-57 had only 12.1". 1996-2013 has had 31.7" since the singles lows in 2/96! I remember one of those in the 80's...might have been 85 when it bottomed out at Christmas, below 0, I think, but I don't think that was the 9 below record year, was it? I remember the 80's as the.... lying on my back in standing water under the house working on pipes when it was below freezing years, lol. I'll never, ever have copper piping again. Rip that stuff out and sell it. Tony Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted November 23, 2013 Share Posted November 23, 2013 I remember one of those in the 80's...might have been 85 when it bottomed out at Christmas, below 0, I think, but I don't think that was the 9 below record year, was it? I remember the 80's as the.... lying on my back in standing water under the house working on pipes when it was below freezing years, lol. I'll never, ever have copper piping again. Rip that stuff out and sell it. Tony January 1985 had the so-called "Coldest Day" where many areas in the Southeast experienced below-0F temperatures. Highs/Lows on 1/21/85: For NC only: +6F at Cape Hatteras is pretty phenomenal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted November 23, 2013 Share Posted November 23, 2013 well the NAM shows snow for Baton Rouge, LA. so we know we can throw it out the window lol. well if Austin, tx is going to get ice I don't see why Baton Rouge can't get snow ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted November 23, 2013 Share Posted November 23, 2013 wow, 12z tgiving day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted November 23, 2013 Share Posted November 23, 2013 Lot of heat coming up with two lows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted November 23, 2013 Share Posted November 23, 2013 January 1985 had the so-called "Coldest Day" where many areas in the Southeast experienced below-0F temperatures. Highs/Lows on 1/21/85: For NC only: +6F at Cape Hatteras is pretty phenomenal. Thanks for this! The spell I'm recounting was right at Christmas day. That whole week was way fridged, and that looks like out record here at the airport you are showing in Jan. I think if is 9 below officially, but I suppose that could have been a different outbreak Man, I love days and nights like that. Snot freezing weather rules!! T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted November 23, 2013 Share Posted November 23, 2013 Thanks for this! The spell I'm recounting was right at Christmas day. That whole week was way fridged, and that looks like out record here at the airport you are showing in Jan. I think if is 9 below officially, but I suppose that could have been a different outbreak Man, I love days and nights like that. Snot freezing weather rules!! T T, You're thinking of 12/1983, when it hit 0 at ATL.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted November 23, 2013 Share Posted November 23, 2013 Thanks for this! The spell I'm recounting was right at Christmas day. That whole week was way fridged, and that looks like out record here at the airport you are showing in Jan. I think if is 9 below officially, but I suppose that could have been a different outbreak Man, I love days and nights like that. Snot freezing weather rules!! T Yeah, that was Christmas 1983......frigid Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted November 23, 2013 Share Posted November 23, 2013 WPC didn't seem to like any model runs as of their afternoon update and went with yesterday's runs. Below average WPC confidence in their forecast: http://www.daculaweather.com/4_hpc_model_diag_disco.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted November 23, 2013 Share Posted November 23, 2013 Looks like 18z GFS stayed with it's solution. I think a lot of us will be up for the 0z runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCCatawba Posted November 23, 2013 Share Posted November 23, 2013 This storm system is responsible for hundreds of crashes. Death toll now at 4. Looks like the WPC and National Weather Services are going with the euro/nam. Those two will be good to watch over the next 24 hours. If it starts Monday night it might be possible to have a Winter Storm Watch out by tomorrow night along the blue ridge before holiday travel starts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1300m Posted November 23, 2013 Share Posted November 23, 2013 Just getting caught up with latest model guidance but as others have said the 18z actually goes even further with it's 12z solution, allowing the northern stream to out run the southern. It also keeps surface temps on Thanksgiving day below freezing all day for most of central NC! Looks like at RDU on this run is predominantly sleet and goes from around 06z through 18z the next day. Paints quite the wintry mess for much of central NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted November 23, 2013 Share Posted November 23, 2013 Anyone want to lay out the Euro ensembles from 12z? Support of the OP or further south and east like the GFS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted November 23, 2013 Share Posted November 23, 2013 18z GFS looks like it would give a lot of people some ice. RDU looks to have the dew point drop to near 32 at hour 96 and then get over .5 liquid(sleet, freezing rain, snow; basically a mess. Dew point may be very close to actual temp if precip is already falling (wet bulb will be very close). But we need a couple of more days and for the Euro to join the fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted November 23, 2013 Share Posted November 23, 2013 18z GFS looks like it would give a lot of people some ice. RDU looks to have the dew point drop to near 32 at hour 96 and then get over .5 liquid(sleet, freezing rain, snow; basically a mess. Dew point may be very close to actual temp if precip is already falling (wet bulb will be very close). But we need a couple of more days and for the Euro to join the fun. That is a standard recipe for a classic NC Piedmont 33º and rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY18 Posted November 23, 2013 Share Posted November 23, 2013 The GFS idea has no support by any of the other models. It's ensembles support it though. And I think the northern stream out running the southern s/w makes sense given the progressive nature of the current pattern. Should be an interesting few days of model watching. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted November 23, 2013 Share Posted November 23, 2013 That is a standard recipe for a classic NC Piedmont 33º and rain.Very possible and should be expected. But only looking at the GFS is would continue to funnel in colder/dryer air as the precip moves through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCCatawba Posted November 23, 2013 Share Posted November 23, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1300m Posted November 23, 2013 Share Posted November 23, 2013 One other thing I will add as this has been a very noticeable trend in recent years - the ECMWF has had a major tendency to overphase over the past few years. We just saw an example with the Arctic front that brought some snow behind it, and I think we could be seeing the same thing again. The fact that the GFS - arguably the strongest model over the past 6-8 months - is beginning to lock into a solution and has ensemble support, actually makes me lean towards it vs. the ECMWF. I will be very curious to see if the Euro starts to lean away from the phase at 00z, because even that may be all the indication we need to see which direction this is headed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted November 23, 2013 Share Posted November 23, 2013 18z GFS looks like it would give a lot of people some ice. RDU looks to have the dew point drop to near 32 at hour 96 and then get over .5 liquid(sleet, freezing rain, snow; basically a mess. Dew point may be very close to actual temp if precip is already falling (wet bulb will be very close). But we need a couple of more days and for the Euro to join the fun. It did... Its just awol on a binge right now. But yeah it should be level headed in the next couple of runs. http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/41767-potential-thanksgiving-event/?p=2485060 http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/41767-potential-thanksgiving-event/?p=2485024 From what the euro was showing and what the gfs is showing now is pretty much identical what is ultimately going to happen with this storm. I find hard to believe that this turns into an app cutter. Not with a ULL tracking in from the SW. So... in all likely hood the models should start coming around to a more uniform solution. That is front end rain with snow assoicated with ULL. So I'd say a good probability that with this type of setup-- SW orginated low there could be a swath of snow from N TX,LA,AR,MS,AL,TN,GA,SC,NC,VA and eventually up the coast to the NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted November 23, 2013 Share Posted November 23, 2013 Up to a 30% chance of Ice Storm Warning Criteria from near Hickory, Lenoir and North Wilkesboro. Over a 70% chance of just seeing a little ice. i am really liking these new maps from gsp and have been using them today as well. hoping they can get a lot of use and a good work out this winter while not sure how they will pan out during an event, but from recollection (been a long time coming) they are pretty accurate with the wedging areas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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