November 27th Storm (snow, sleet, rain - something maybe for everyone)

[ChescoWx]

Latest Wxsim module run for NW Chester County PA shows a real battle on precip types N and W of the City. It has a mix of Snow, IP and Rain arriving around 2am on Wednesday with the mix continuing heavy at times temps will remain between 32.3 and 34.8 for the duration of the storm. Would not be surprised to see some accumulations in the higher spots both at the start and end of this event. Also of note is the fact that Sunday temps should stay in the 20's all day. 

[Quakertown needs snow]

GFS has come around towards Euro.

Mountain areas central PA. and north could do well.

[chubbs]

GFS has come around towards Euro.

Mountain areas central PA. and north could do well.

12z gfs shifted back east - narrow strip of snow in east coast metros.. Still bouncing around but in a narrowing envelop.

[NJ_Ken]

_{Unless there is something happening here that is very definitive and very different than we are used to seeing, I prefer sticking with climo when considering storms like this so early in the season.  That, of course, means a cold rain in the coastal plain with perhaps a few wet flakes or sleet pellets at the beginning and/or end.  I think locations as close as the Poconos could really get a good dump from this, but I just don't see it happening near... and definitely not east of... I-95.  Of course, I also hope I am very wrong.}     

[Ralph Wiggum]

GFS has come around towards Euro.

Mountain areas central PA. and north could do well.

12z gfs shifted back east - narrow strip of snow in east coast metros.. Still bouncing around but in a narrowing envelop.

Seems the gfs is up to its old tricks...not buying the eastern shift.

[Fields27]

It would be naive to buy into it after all the flopping. Naive to buy into anything at this point.

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[Harbourton]

Problem is there is no real 50/50 low on the map - one of the main ingredients for an east coast storm as Dave Tolleris used to preach.

 

[ChescoWx]

Seems the gfs is up to its old tricks...not buying the eastern shift.

Words of wisdom Ralph - not saying it will happen but the GFS almost always shows a storm to the east for all the major events in the northeast. I would expect it to flip at least 3 more times between now and Monday evening before it locks onto a solution

[Boch23]

I would rather have it cold an dry on Thanksgiving morning for football than cold and wet. So if not getting snow, then no thanks.

[ChescoWx]

Of course operational is west.....

[Ralph Wiggum]

18 z is a washout for phl

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[Animal]

picked of a 6 pack of ice melt on the way home tonight. Wife heard from the lady next door that we are getting 6 + inches Tuesday night!!

Mt Holly  NWS indicates that my local area may get some snow possibly as early as Tuesday next week.

 

 

Looks to be a decent cold snap starting tomorrow though next week too!

[Harbourton]

06z GFS ensembles suite is very interesting. Two of them are showing a major nor'easter. 

[LVblizzard]

I don't see how some people think a major snow will happen - there may be some snow at the start, but it'll be too warm for an all-snow event for all of this region except for some higher elevations of the Poconos.

[Animal]

I don't see how some people think a major snow will happen - there may be some snow at the start, but it'll be too warm for an all-snow event for all of this region except for some higher elevations of the Poconos.

 

 

I don't think most people are expecting an all snow event or a "big dog" event.

This is the first possible event in some time & a few locations may get some snow.

Odds don't favor snow this time of the year, but anything can happen.

I would gladly take a slushy inch or 2.

[RedSky]

12z gfs dry as a bone for "storm boreas" ots track this time

[famartin]

Using their name only makes them look good.  Stop.  For the love of god

[RedSky]

Using their name only makes them look good.  Stop.  For the love of god

all fixed Ray

[famartin]

all fixed Ray

[IsentropicLift]

GGEM still super amped, rain to Canada

[Rainshadow]

12z gfs dry as a bone for "storm boreas" ots track this time

 

This is the flip side of the 2 foot snow solutions that the Euro had in Mid November.  This though is even closer in to event time than when the EC capitulated.  I would have thought by this run the split between the GFS and others would have narrowed because all of the players are I believe in better sampling range.

[IsentropicLift]

The 12z Euro looks like the GGEM, maybe a hair east. 2-3" of rain + for the area. Then a cold Thanksgiving as this really drags in the cold air on the backside.

[Sophisticated Skeptic]

We all know NAM is mostly for 0 to 48 hours..

 

But still, huge differences: 84 hour NAM vs. 84 hour GFS.

[ChescoWx]

JB just tweeted that this is either the greatest coup in GFS history or yet another epic failure taking this out to sea

[Ian]

I95 special (special offer)

 

[usedtobe]

I95 special (special offer)

 

ecmwf_tprecip_harrisburg_21.png

Wow,  the GFS is gonna look real bad or real good.  The Euro seems to have most of the operational models in its corner. 

[Animal]

I95 special (special offer)

 

ecmwf_tprecip_harrisburg_21.png

 

 

Shows 3+ inches over my house. We need rain, but that is a little too much.

[Violentweatherfan]

I95 special (special offer)

ecmwf_tprecip_harrisburg_21.png

Thanks Ian.

[Sophisticated Skeptic]

Another reason why we need to merge the 2 sections....

 

It's a complete snooze-fest here, while a beast of a storm is incoming Tuesday to Thursday.   

 

The strongest nor'easter of the year. 

[pasnownut]

Another reason why we need to merge the 2 sections....

 

It's a complete snooze-fest here, while a beast of a storm is incoming Tuesday to Thursday.   

 

The strongest nor'easter of the year. 

After viewing the last week, I'm thinking your right.  I hope if it happens we are welcome.  

 

Nut