WinterWxLuvr Posted November 23, 2013 Share Posted November 23, 2013 GFS stays the course Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted November 23, 2013 Share Posted November 23, 2013 0z GFS is gonna be huge Haha, nicely done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted November 23, 2013 Share Posted November 23, 2013 Second low causing some mischief again down in VA/NC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted November 23, 2013 Share Posted November 23, 2013 Still don't know which is right, the unsnowy GFS track or the unsnowy Euro track. Anyone who tells you they know is guessing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lsukev Posted November 23, 2013 Share Posted November 23, 2013 The difference at 500mb between the GFS and the more amped other models is huge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowdude Posted November 23, 2013 Share Posted November 23, 2013 Just saying, IF the GFS is correct it may pull another coup. Didn't it beat every other model for another storm earlier this year? I can't remember what it was but I remember it beat the EURO and everyone sided with the EURO early on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted November 23, 2013 Share Posted November 23, 2013 Just saying, IF the GFS is correct it may pull another coup. Didn't it beat every other model for another storm earlier this year? I can't remember what it was but I remember it beat the EURO and everyone sided with the EURO early on. It was only the euro showing a storm. CMC and UKMET never did, they show one this time just like the euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rdd9108 Posted November 23, 2013 Share Posted November 23, 2013 Gfs is the outlier here. I would be shocked if this went OTS the way the gfs is depicting it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 Just saying, IF the GFS is correct it may pull another coup. Didn't it beat every other model for another storm earlier this year? I can't remember what it was but I remember it beat the EURO and everyone sided with the EURO early on. The problem is, the GFS really has no support this time. I was on the GFS wagon with the last fake threat, but I gotta think it's going to cave at some point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 GFS is on it's own, so it's probably on crack. Looks like central and northern VA are in for a flooding deluge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 Just saying, IF the GFS is correct it may pull another coup. Didn't it beat every other model for another storm earlier this year? I can't remember what it was but I remember it beat the EURO and everyone sided with the EURO early on. The problem is, the GFS really has no support this time. I was on the GFS wagon with the last fake threat, but I gotta think it's going to cave at some point. Really its been a long cat and mouse game. I think generally the gfs on the last one did little better with snow event as far as picking up the potential. Then they both waffled around trying to get the strength down. Euro tended to be too aggressive with the situation imo. Again the same leading up to now... This was the Euro yesterdays run. Now look what the GFS is showing essentially the same thing. But more of a backend threat than front-end. Now Im no pro....but.. with setup similar to this in the past.... the general longwave pattern(500mb) would support an EC snowstorm. I'm not talking about the nit picky details each individual placement of the s/w's on every model run. While the models runs may show support here and there... Generally atm GFS has a good handling. I think a combo of the GGEM,NAM,Euro atm is way too amped in the upper levels. But eventually should see Euro,Nam,GGEM,GFS and other models come to a more realistic outcome within the next few runs. Which honestly could be a backend snowstorm stretching from TX to GA up the NE coast. But maybe everyone can be more optimistic come the 0z runs since there is still alot of chaos. Also climo wise Would argue against a blockbuster type of snow. Alot of big snowstorms orginate out of the SW And those that orginate out of the SW favor a southern snow track and eventually up the EC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 pretty https://twitter.com/StuOstro/status/404422846513836033 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 Weenie range... but the 21z SREFs have HUGE range of where the low could be at hr 87 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 thru 63 hrs on the 0Z NAM, I'm not convinced it's not that much further west than GFS I could be wrong and we'll know in a few minutes but it has a "bit" of a whiff look to it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 thru 63 hrs on the 0Z NAM, I'm not convinced it's not that much further west than GFS I could be wrong and we'll know in a few minutes but it has a "bit" of a whiff look to it ooops! predicting models is a dangerous game sometimes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 ooops! Heavy heavy rain incoming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 thru 63 hrs on the 0Z NAM, I'm not convinced it's not that much further west than GFS I could be wrong and we'll know in a few minutes but it has a "bit" of a whiff look to it Give this man a red tag Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 Heavy heavy rain incoming no snow of consequence any where near us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 Storms Wed morning? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 Give this man a red tag at least for having ballz! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 I would take a blend of the EURO/NAM and the faster infusion of cold air with the GFS. Not asking for too much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 Closing in on 3" of rain with a lot more coming after http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller/Image.php?fhr=084ℑ=data%2Fnam%2F00%2Fnam_namer_084_precip_ptot.gif&model=nam&area=namer¶m=precip_ptot&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 Closing in on 3" of rain with a lot more coming after http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller/Image.php?fhr=084ℑ=data%2Fnam%2F00%2Fnam_namer_084_precip_ptot.gif&model=nam&area=namer¶m=precip_ptot&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M strange, I've never seen an 84 hr qpf map like that on the NAM before Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 strange, I've never seen an 84 hr qpf map like that on the NAM before we're screwed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 we're screwed Looks like a chance for some isolated storms Wednesday morning? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 at least for having ballz! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 Looks like a chance for some isolated storms Wednesday morning? Woooo storms Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 Looks like a chance for some isolated storms Wednesday morning?The nam is like 2 frames from a phased neg tilt bomb. I think it's too amped up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 Well, to quote Ian, the 00Z GFS is going to be epic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 Well, to quote Ian, the 00Z GFS is going to be epic. Until it decides to go aimlessly out to sea... then the 00z EURO becomes biblical Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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