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November 26-28 Coastal Storm Discussion and Obs


DCAlexandria

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Just saying, IF the GFS is correct it may pull another coup. Didn't it beat every other model for another storm earlier this year? I can't remember what it was but I remember it beat the EURO and everyone sided with the EURO early on.

 

It was only the euro showing a storm. CMC and UKMET never did, they show one this time just like the euro. 

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Just saying, IF the GFS is correct it may pull another coup. Didn't it beat every other model for another storm earlier this year? I can't remember what it was but I remember it beat the EURO and everyone sided with the EURO early on.

 

The problem is, the GFS really has no support this time.  I was on the GFS wagon with the last fake threat, but I gotta think it's going to cave at some point.

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Just saying, IF the GFS is correct it may pull another coup. Didn't it beat every other model for another storm earlier this year? I can't remember what it was but I remember it beat the EURO and everyone sided with the EURO early on.

The problem is, the GFS really has no support this time.  I was on the GFS wagon with the last fake threat, but I gotta think it's going to cave at some point.

 

Really its been a long cat and mouse game. I think generally the gfs on the last one did little better with snow event as far as picking up the potential. Then they both waffled around trying to get the strength down. Euro tended to be too aggressive with the situation imo. 

 

Again the same leading up to now... 

 

This was the Euro yesterdays run.

f120.gif

 

cW0q9jI.png

 

Now look what the GFS is showing essentially the same thing. But more of a backend threat than front-end.

 

gfs_namer_099_700_rh_ht.gif

 

Now Im no pro....but.. with setup similar to this in the past.... the general longwave pattern(500mb) would support an EC snowstorm. I'm not talking about the nit picky details each individual placement of the s/w's on every model run.

 

While the models runs may show support here and there... Generally atm GFS has a good handling. I think a combo of the GGEM,NAM,Euro atm is way too amped in the upper levels.

 

But eventually should see Euro,Nam,GGEM,GFS and other models come to a more realistic outcome within the next few runs. Which honestly could be a backend snowstorm stretching from TX to GA  up the NE coast.

 

But maybe everyone can be more optimistic come the 0z runs since there is still alot of chaos.

 

Also climo wise 

Would argue against a blockbuster type of snow.

Alot of big snowstorms orginate out of the SW

And those that orginate out of the SW favor a southern snow track and eventually up the EC.

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