mitchnick Posted November 23, 2013 Share Posted November 23, 2013 It's been so long that it's hard to believe we'll get a southern soaker until we actually get one. Can anyone chime in on what the euro overnight run suggests? 1-2" rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted November 23, 2013 Share Posted November 23, 2013 Should I oil up the shovel, break out the buckets and pumps, or stock up on sun screen for this monster nor'easter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted November 23, 2013 Share Posted November 23, 2013 Probably not wise to ignore the gfs OTS solution even if it is on its own for now....two runs in a row It's ENS Mean is even trying to ignore it... two runs in a row Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted November 23, 2013 Share Posted November 23, 2013 Today feels like one of those days where the long range guidance says hello August Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 23, 2013 Share Posted November 23, 2013 Today feels like one of those days where the long range guidance says hello August What does that mean? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 23, 2013 Share Posted November 23, 2013 What does that mean? don't mind him, he just needs rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 23, 2013 Share Posted November 23, 2013 What does that mean? I think subtropics hijacked leesburg's account. All guidance continues to beat the aleutian ridge drum with below normal temps for the entire modeled period post rainstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted November 23, 2013 Share Posted November 23, 2013 What does that mean? It just feels like one of those model flip flop days where warmth shows up...last two days have been about the positive signals so its time to put us in our place....probably banter...sorry...you can move Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted November 23, 2013 Share Posted November 23, 2013 1-2" rain Thanks. And, by the way, elevation envy is all relative. Whenever it snows I look northwest and get just a taste of bitterness. It's never enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 23, 2013 Share Posted November 23, 2013 Thanks. And, by the way, elevation envy is all relative. Whenever it snows I look northwest and get just a taste of bitterness. It's never enough. yup...enough is never enough (which goes for a whole lot of things actually) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted November 23, 2013 Share Posted November 23, 2013 NAM is bringing Tuesday's storm thru western part of NC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted November 23, 2013 Share Posted November 23, 2013 NAM is bringing Tuesday's storm thru western part of NC Yes, NAM is very warm & very wet. #nosurprises Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted November 23, 2013 Share Posted November 23, 2013 Yes, NAM is very warm & very wet. #nosurprises Overly wrapped up near the end of its run. Typical NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted November 23, 2013 Share Posted November 23, 2013 12z GFS operational--out to sea , again. MDstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted November 23, 2013 Share Posted November 23, 2013 12z GFS is mindblowing, it appears areas of Southern VA get a decent snowstorm from the second low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted November 23, 2013 Share Posted November 23, 2013 12z GFS operational--out to sea , again. MDstorm Looks like the cold air pushes it out but not before Southern VA gets some light accum. Wouldn't take much of a change to to affect the southern suburbs with some white stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted November 23, 2013 Share Posted November 23, 2013 Congrats RDU! Wouldn't that be a gut punch if that 12z gfs scenario played out. It likely won't though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted November 23, 2013 Share Posted November 23, 2013 It's possible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted November 23, 2013 Share Posted November 23, 2013 It's interesting that today's GFS really shears Wednesday's storm and is back to pretty much fringing the area. That's the 3rd run with that look. Most of the 06Z GEFS by contrast forecast over and inch with over 80% of the members predicting more than .50". The GGEM from 00Z was wet and the ukmet had a wet track so the GFS seems to be somewhat of an outlier. We really don't know that much more since I wrote my article 2 days ago. I suspect we'll get some rain and if the ensembles and last night's are right, it could be heavy. It will be interesting to see what today's euro does as it didn't look quite as wet on last night's run as it had on previous runs. Here's the GEFS plume for IAD from the 06Z run. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathervswife Posted November 23, 2013 Share Posted November 23, 2013 Hey, I'm back for another season. Things looking not unlike last season per latest GFS. However that's even a little too far south for me. BUT....a completely different solution but who cares at this point. NAM hasn't changed either I see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 23, 2013 Share Posted November 23, 2013 Remember the Sandy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lsukev Posted November 23, 2013 Share Posted November 23, 2013 Congrats RDU! Wouldn't that be a gut punch if that 12z gfs scenario played out. It likely won't though. They have been killing the DC Metro the last few years Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yorkpa25 Posted November 23, 2013 Share Posted November 23, 2013 Is it still true that the GFS always loses a storm in this range, within 3 or 4 days only to bring it back. Sometime tomorrow it will be back to the solution from 1.5-2 days ago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted November 23, 2013 Share Posted November 23, 2013 So NAM and 1/4 the SRef members are ready to dump 3" of rain in BUF and GFS is 200 miles to our south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted November 23, 2013 Share Posted November 23, 2013 Remember the Sandy If the euro shows only 1.75" of rain instead of the 1.76" it showed last night then that is a HUGE step towards the gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted November 23, 2013 Share Posted November 23, 2013 If the euro shows only 1.75" of rain instead of the 1.76" it showed last night then that is a HUGE step towards the gfs If the EURO disagrees, I'm flipping a coin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dtk Posted November 23, 2013 Share Posted November 23, 2013 Is it still true that the GFS always loses a storm in this range, within 3 or 4 days only to bring it back. Sometime tomorrow it will be back to the solution from 1.5-2 days ago Yes. Always! /sarcasm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted November 23, 2013 Share Posted November 23, 2013 Surprisingly, the GEFS shifted east.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted November 23, 2013 Share Posted November 23, 2013 Surprisingly, the GEFS shifted east.. Trend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted November 23, 2013 Share Posted November 23, 2013 It really is quite painful to see the cold and the storm track, only to have it happen in November. If only this were to happen about ten days later...we'd probably get even colder rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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