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November 26-28 Coastal Storm Discussion and Obs


DCAlexandria

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12z GFS graphics on WxBell has back-end snow for NOVA tomorrow night between 18z and 00z Thursday.  Looks like it might be ripping a bit back out toward the north and west of DC, out toward Leesburg.

 

I am following an h5 vort piece that looks like it passes just to the south and east of DCA between 18z and 21z... I suspect that could give us a boost for some snow

 

GFS h5 at 30 hrs -- http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller/data/gfs/12/gfs_namer_030_500_vort_ht.gif

 

Thats a pretty nice vort and its moving NE.  Another one, a bit weaker, moves through between hrs 36 and 39, prob producing some light snow showers maybe. 

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12z GFS graphic on WxBell has back-end snow for NOVA tomorrow night between 18z and 00z Thursday.  Looks like it might be ripping a bit back out toward the north and west of DC, out toward Leesburg.

 

It doesn't show much after 18z....based on the model, most would fall between 15z and 18z, and it could be mostly sleet...after 18z things dry quickly to flurries...

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What was so bad about model performance up to now?

Extent of frozen, timing, and, now snow says GFS is a torch this evening. Not sure what to expect. Yesterday the kids and teachers were buzzing about possible delays. Well, we know how that panned out. I have always tempered expectations around here regarding winter forecasts.

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