AvantHiatus Posted November 22, 2013 Share Posted November 22, 2013 Rather unusual situation for a double-low setup, would be surprised if the 12z Euro verified verbatim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted November 22, 2013 Share Posted November 22, 2013 still not sure on his snow maps. they seem off. but it does verbatim give us a bit and more like half a foot in se va. Those maps have to be off. From just taking a quick glance 850's don't crash until 18z when there is very little precip. left. Some flurries or snow showers are def. possible for a few hours but nothing like that map implies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted November 22, 2013 Share Posted November 22, 2013 wunderground euro snow is kinda similar... What's extremely discouraging is that the snow hole maps are continuing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted November 22, 2013 Share Posted November 22, 2013 How much for DT? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted November 22, 2013 Share Posted November 22, 2013 How much for DT? Let me go check FB Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted November 22, 2013 Share Posted November 22, 2013 From reading other threads... seems the GFS ensembles were further west. Cant post an image... guess its on Alan's site Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 22, 2013 Share Posted November 22, 2013 From reading other threads... seems the GFS ensembles were further west. Cant post an image... guess its on Alan's site They are, but there's MAJOR spread still. You can also see that several ensemble members have 2 lows actually, similar to what the Euro's doing I guess? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scuddz Posted November 22, 2013 Share Posted November 22, 2013 The WCM from Mt. Holly said he's bailing on his Thanksgiving plans due to the threat at our meeting yesterday, for whatever thats worth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 22, 2013 Share Posted November 22, 2013 How much for DT? a lot, I hope, because 5-day bullseye rule applies this time of year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted November 22, 2013 Share Posted November 22, 2013 They are, but there's MAJOR spread still. You can also see that several ensemble members have 2 lows actually, similar to what the Euro's doing I guess? its that second low that gives parts of southern VA the chance for snow, leaving us in the snow hole... again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 22, 2013 Share Posted November 22, 2013 its that second low that gives parts of southern VA the chance for snow, leaving us in the snow hole... again. Yeah I guess, but I wouldn't put too much stock into that yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted November 22, 2013 Share Posted November 22, 2013 Yeah I guess, but I wouldn't put too much stock into that yet. you mean I can't lock that in? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted November 22, 2013 Share Posted November 22, 2013 They are, but there's MAJOR spread still. You can also see that several ensemble members have 2 lows actually, similar to what the Euro's doing I guess? The spread, as far as I can tell, comes from timing. Looks to me, at a glance, that the members are almost all west and wetter, but there are some huge differences in when. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted November 22, 2013 Share Posted November 22, 2013 NAM will be in range soon, and we'll get our modeled 12"+ KU Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted November 22, 2013 Share Posted November 22, 2013 NAM will be in range soon, and we'll get our modeled 12"+ KU Like you said yesterday, it might be kinda nice if just one run at some point painted some flakes across our area...I would even take a pity NAM run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted November 22, 2013 Share Posted November 22, 2013 Driving rain storm again on the 18z GFS. Good bit west of 12z.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted November 22, 2013 Share Posted November 22, 2013 It's getting my interest some now. The cold air plunging is showing signs of creating activity along tx/la costline and points south. I like that. Let's see next if we can get an orgainized rain area moving thru northern georgia. The peak of the cold will be waning by later Monday but still would be good enough Monday night but going to be lot tougher on Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted November 22, 2013 Share Posted November 22, 2013 Driving rain storm again on the 18z GFS. Good bit west of 12z.. Most of the 12Z ens members were wetter than the 12Z GFS. It was not an extreme outlier but was quite a bit lighter than the median or mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted November 22, 2013 Share Posted November 22, 2013 Most of the 12Z ens members were wetter than the 12Z GFS. It was not an extreme outlier but was quite a bit lighter than the median or mean. Yes they were. I don't think it's an absolute that this is a driving rainstorm for the whole region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 22, 2013 Share Posted November 22, 2013 Like you said yesterday, it might be kinda nice if just one run at some point painted some flakes across our area...I would even take a pity NAM run. Most of the Op runs show us changing to snow at the end. That's never a guarantee in the real world, but it's there in model-land. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 22, 2013 Share Posted November 22, 2013 Most of the Op runs show us changing to snow at the end. That's never a guarantee in the real world, but it's there in model-land. It wouldn't surprise me if we end as snow falling from the sky and melting on contact. Heights and temps will crash as the storm moves away. Thermal profile isn't too far out of reach to have some mood flakes in the mid - upper 30's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted November 22, 2013 Share Posted November 22, 2013 Yes they were. I don't think it's an absolute that this is a driving rainstorm for the whole region. I don't either but think the odds are increasing for getting a good soaking rain for I95 east. How far west it spreads is more up in the air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted November 22, 2013 Share Posted November 22, 2013 Yes they were. I don't think it's an absolute that this is a driving rainstorm for the whole region. Doesn't mean much at this range, but the 18Z GFS has the 0 C line at the surface hugging I-81 for the duration of the precip. Thicknesses say rain with the bulk of the QPF, but if the model were to have the temps right, could the valleys to our west be in for some ice ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 22, 2013 Share Posted November 22, 2013 It wouldn't surprise me if we end as snow falling from the sky and melting on contact. Heights and temps will crash as the storm moves away. Thermal profile isn't too far out of reach to have some mood flakes in the mid - upper 30's. it really is a classic surface low track for us to get snow, that's really the only thing I find painful about it at this point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted November 22, 2013 Share Posted November 22, 2013 Leesberg could use the rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted November 22, 2013 Share Posted November 22, 2013 it really is a classic surface low track for us to get snow, that's really the only thing I find painful about it at this point Looking at BUFKIT for 18z two things standout...1 1. Onset is 4 hours earlier 2. Freezing Rain to begin for ~ 2hrs. Take 18z GFS Verbatim: Mapgirl would have a heck of an ice storm as she stays sub-32 the entire storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 22, 2013 Share Posted November 22, 2013 it really is a classic surface low track for us to get snow, that's really the only thing I find painful about it at this point Yea, nov climo is awful tough to overcome. Just not all the pieces in place. But it is what it is. I never once thought this storm would bring even a half inch of snow on the ground so it's not hurting my feelings much. ETA: the next one is ALL OURS though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted November 22, 2013 Share Posted November 22, 2013 Yes they were. I don't think it's an absolute that this is a driving rainstorm for the whole region. I agree. But I think south of us is better off at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 22, 2013 Share Posted November 22, 2013 Looking at BUFKIT for 18z two things standout...1 1. Onset is 4 hours earlier 2. Freezing Rain to begin for ~ 2hrs. Take 18z GFS Verbatim: Mapgirl would have a heck of an ice storm as she stays sub-32 the entire storm. after fighting the bl during the past 3 winters like I've never seen in my life, I'll take an ice storm if I can't have snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted November 22, 2013 Share Posted November 22, 2013 Looking at BUFKIT for 18z two things standout...1 1. Onset is 4 hours earlier 2. Freezing Rain to begin for ~ 2hrs. Take 18z GFS Verbatim: Mapgirl would have a heck of an ice storm as she stays sub-32 the entire storm. Oh really? What's the timing for my ice storm of doom? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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