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November 26-28 Coastal Storm Discussion and Obs


DCAlexandria

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still not sure on his snow maps. they seem off.  but it does verbatim give us a bit and more like half a foot in se va. 

Those maps have to be off. From just taking a quick glance 850's don't crash until 18z when there is very little precip. left. Some flurries or snow showers are def. possible for a few hours but nothing like that map implies.

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From reading other threads... seems the GFS ensembles were further west. Cant post an image... guess its on Alan's site

They are, but there's MAJOR spread still.  You can also see that several ensemble members have 2 lows actually, similar to what the Euro's doing I guess?  

gefs-mnsprd_namer_120_mslp.gif

 

gefs-mnsprd_namer_132_mslp.gif

 

gefs-mnsprd_namer_150_mslp.gif

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They are, but there's MAJOR spread still.  You can also see that several ensemble members have 2 lows actually, similar to what the Euro's doing I guess?  

 

its that second low that gives parts of southern VA the chance for snow, leaving us in the snow hole... again.

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They are, but there's MAJOR spread still.  You can also see that several ensemble members have 2 lows actually, similar to what the Euro's doing I guess?  

gefs-mnsprd_namer_120_mslp.gif

 

gefs-mnsprd_namer_132_mslp.gif

 

gefs-mnsprd_namer_150_mslp.gif

The spread, as far as I can tell, comes from timing.  Looks to me, at a glance, that the members are almost all west and wetter, but there are some huge differences in when.

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It's getting my interest some now. The cold air plunging is showing signs of creating activity along tx/la costline and points south. I like that. Let's see next if we can get an orgainized rain area moving thru northern georgia.  The peak of the cold will be waning by later Monday but still would be good enough Monday night  but going to be lot tougher on Tuesday.

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Like you said yesterday, it might be kinda nice if just one run at some point painted some flakes across our area...I would even take a pity NAM run.

Most of the Op runs show us changing to snow at the end.  That's never a guarantee in the real world, but it's there in model-land. 

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Most of the Op runs show us changing to snow at the end.  That's never a guarantee in the real world, but it's there in model-land. 

 

It wouldn't surprise me if we end as snow falling from the sky and melting on contact. Heights and temps will crash as the storm moves away. Thermal profile isn't too far out of reach to have some mood flakes in the mid - upper 30's. 

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Yes they were.

I don't think it's an absolute that this is a driving rainstorm for the whole region.

Doesn't mean much at this range, but the 18Z GFS has the 0 C line at the surface hugging I-81 for the duration of the precip.  Thicknesses say rain with the bulk of the QPF, but if the model were to have the temps right, could the valleys to our west be in for some ice ?

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It wouldn't surprise me if we end as snow falling from the sky and melting on contact. Heights and temps will crash as the storm moves away. Thermal profile isn't too far out of reach to have some mood flakes in the mid - upper 30's. 

it really is a classic surface low track for us to get snow, that's really the only thing I find painful about it at this point

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it really is a classic surface low track for us to get snow, that's really the only thing I find painful about it at this point

 

Looking at BUFKIT for 18z two things standout...1

1. Onset is 4 hours earlier

2. Freezing Rain to begin for ~ 2hrs.

 

Take 18z GFS Verbatim: Mapgirl would have a heck of an ice storm as she stays sub-32 the entire storm.

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it really is a classic surface low track for us to get snow, that's really the only thing I find painful about it at this point

 

Yea, nov climo is awful tough to overcome. Just not all the pieces in place. But it is what it is. I never once thought this storm would bring even a half inch of snow on the ground so it's not hurting my feelings much. 

 

ETA: the next one is ALL OURS though

 

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Looking at BUFKIT for 18z two things standout...1

1. Onset is 4 hours earlier

2. Freezing Rain to begin for ~ 2hrs.

 

Take 18z GFS Verbatim: Mapgirl would have a heck of an ice storm as she stays sub-32 the entire storm.

after fighting the bl during the past 3 winters like I've never seen in my life, I'll take an ice storm if I can't have snow

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Looking at BUFKIT for 18z two things standout...1

1. Onset is 4 hours earlier

2. Freezing Rain to begin for ~ 2hrs.

Take 18z GFS Verbatim: Mapgirl would have a heck of an ice storm as she stays sub-32 the entire storm.

Oh really? What's the timing for my ice storm of doom?

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