Roger Smith Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 Here's my guess, 1.5-2 inches of rain overnight (Tues-Wed) with temps creeping up to about 57 F by early Wed (DCA, 52 IAD) dense fog and possible thunderstorm, temps falling through the 40s in the morning in showery rain, then a sleety mix afternoon in strong northwesterly winds some accumulations on grassy surfaces to 2" nw suburbs. All moisture then gone by about 0300 Thursday, icy roads a problem well outside the I-95 corridor. A few local 4" snowfalls in noVA and c MD but rather patchy coverage. Basically a bit of everything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 I suppose I'm out on my own island because I'll be surprised if DCA hits 57 and anyone in central md hits 4 inches of snow. Pleasantly surprised for the latter, if it were to happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 I suppose I'm out on my own island because I'll be surprised if DCA hits 57 and anyone in central md hits 4 inches of snow. Pleasantly surprised for the latter, if it were to happen. I assume he means in the NW portions right by the PA line, but even that is not going to happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 GFS precip not that impressive now http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=072ℑ=data%2Fgfs%2F18%2Fgfs_namer_072_precip_ptot.gif&model=gfs&area=namer¶m=precip_ptot&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 GFS precip not that impressive now http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=072ℑ=data%2Fgfs%2F18%2Fgfs_namer_072_precip_ptot.gif&model=gfs&area=namer¶m=precip_ptot&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M 1.5"+ is still a pretty big storm in the cold season... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 1.5"+ is still a pretty big storm in the cold season... yeah, but nothing like the 2.5-3.5"+ suggested over the last few days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 yeah, but nothing like the 2.5-3.5"+ suggested over the last few days Model chaos Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 18z gfs says we do it all again, more or less, in a week with the same result Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 18z gfs says we do it all again, more or less, in a week with the same result That period is sneaky. Probably not much of a chance for us. Maybe we get lucky and overrun something with some cold air in place. The sw is pretty weak but it tracks just under us.Unfortunate that there doesn't seem to be much of a cold air source to the N once the weekend lode moves out. At the very least it's worth paying attention to the period even if it's a longshot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 yeah, but nothing like the 2.5-3.5"+ suggested over the last few days 3.5"+ is probably a 1% of cold season storms type of deal. If that. Never say never but good to have logical bounds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 18z gfs says we do it all again, more or less, in a week with the same result Didn't December '09 have a big rain storm early before things went our way? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 That period is sneaky. Probably not much of a chance for us. Maybe we get lucky and overrun something with some cold air in place. The sw is pretty weak but it tracks just under us.Unfortunate that there doesn't seem to be much of a cold air source to the N once the weekend lode moves out. At the very least it's worth paying attention to the period even if it's a longshot. I'll say it for Matt.....NO BLOCKING! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 Didn't December '09 have a big rain storm early before things went our way? using big rainstorms as analogs to pending snow storms around here will not get you where you want to be me thinks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 1.5"+ is still a pretty big storm in the cold season... I thought I saw i.75 to 2.00. Now all the models are in the 1.75 to 2.60 range. My guess is little over 2 as that's the euro ensemble mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 I thought I saw i.75 to 2.00. Now all the models are in the 1.75 to 2.60 range. My guess is little over 2 as that's the euro ensemble mean.Yeah probably. Looking on my phone and just referenced the big purple area. 2" seems about right as a general idea locally with higher bullseyes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 I agree with Wes, 1.75 to 2.25 is a good ballpark. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 32 DP 13 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 I agree with Wes, 1.75 to 2.25 is a good ballpark. The euro ensemble mean is 2.5 so I'd up it a bit to 1.75 to 2.6 but that's nit picking and I only say that after looking closer at the ens mean from 12Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 Didn't December '09 have a big rain storm early before things went our way? I was looking at that storm earlier today. 12/8/2009. It tracked west of here, but managed to dump 2.3" of snow on the front end. Ended with 1.74" of precip, and still had snow cover when it was over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Skywalker03 Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 WWA for our rain storm. Montgomery Winter Weather Advisory in effect from 4AM EST TUE until 1PM EST TUE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TO 1 PM EST TUESDAY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON HAS ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TO 1 PM EST TUESDAY. PRECIPITATION TYPE PRECIPITATION WILL START AS A BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW AND SLEET LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY THEN IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE TO FREEZING RAIN BY MID MORNING TUESDAY AND CONTINUE AS FREEZING RAIN INTO EARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. ACCUMULATIONS UP TO AN INCH OF SNOW AND SLEET BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING FOLLOWED BY AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH OF FREEZING RAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON. TIMING BEGINNING BETWEEN 4 AM AND 6 AM AND CONTINUING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 20S TONIGHT MID 30S BY EARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS NORTHEAST 5 MPH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 36/10 at DCA and really not getting any dew increase. Becasue of the synoptics we will not get the 33% benefit between the dew and temp during onset but more like 20%. Even still that's 28/29 during precip so some frozen price is going to be paid. Cold air behind storm is pressing already and I think the ultimate move of this is not going to be far enough west to pop our temps to 50+. Eastern shore may be a different matter. Anyway, nothing to cry about with the cold surge and now storm and it's not even quite Thanksgiving. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 18z gfs says we do it all again, more or less, in a week with the same result Mitch you're right but there are a few differences. One is that the SLP is off the coast instead of inland and from hour 174 to 192 we are impacted by the storm since it only moves from the mid NC coast to New England. A total of 18 hours. Not exactly a fast mover (as it stands now). All we need is for the cold air to appear and be on our doorstep, not to much to ask. lol. But it bears watching. That period looked good a few days ago. Whose to say it can't come back around? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 Mitch you're right but there are a few differences. One is that the SLP is off the coast instead of inland and from hour 174 to 192 we are impacted by the storm since it only moves from the mid NC coast to New England. A total of 18 hours. Not exactly a fast mover (as it stands now). All we need is for the cold air to appear and be on our doorstep, not to much to ask. lol. But it bears watching. That period looked good a few days ago. Who's to say it can't come back around? Deb will. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 Serious question... There's a ton of dry air to overcome and I am wondering why LWX is putting our potential start time as early as 5AM, and then "likely" by 9AM? Seems like that is 4 or 5 hours early, which may make a big difference regarding p-type. What am I missing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 Single digit dew points should yield some IP / -SN burst at the start. The earlier the better for everyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 So when do we start breaking out the composite radar loops? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted November 26, 2013 Share Posted November 26, 2013 Looking better Location Min Likely Max 0" T-1" 1-2" 2-4" 4-8" 8-12" 12-18" >18" Aldie, VA 0 0-1 2 22% 56% 16% 6% 0% 0% 0% 0% Ashburn, VA 0 0-1 2 28% 50% 16% 6% 0% 0% 0% 0% Dulles Airport (IAD), VA 0 0-1 2 42% 39% 15% 4% 0% 0% 0% 0% Leesburg, VA 0 0-1 2 21% 51% 20% 8% 0% 0% 0% 0% Purcellville, VA 0 0-1 2 17% 46% 27% 10% 0% 0% 0% 0% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted November 26, 2013 Share Posted November 26, 2013 31/13 here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover33 Posted November 26, 2013 Share Posted November 26, 2013 So any thoughts on conditions at Dulles around 6 tomorrow morning? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted November 26, 2013 Share Posted November 26, 2013 31/9 Some reports of snow already in Southern VA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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