aldie 22 Posted November 22, 2013 Share Posted November 22, 2013 Is this your final answer Mr gfs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted November 22, 2013 Share Posted November 22, 2013 As long as you set your top goal to see some flurries, then you all will be set for this storm More or less, yeah. At this point I'm not counting on real accumulating snow, but won't be surprised if we actually manage a coating (car topper, if you will??) in the metro area. Perhaps better chances farther west, depending on the precip amounts. What impresses me more almost is how cold it is behind the system during the day on Thanksgiving. Taking the 12Z GFS verbatim, we stay at or just below freezing the entire day. I also like how the overall long wave pattern looks heading into the end of November and first part of December; could be encouraging. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted November 22, 2013 Share Posted November 22, 2013 Until it folds like the GFS Like a cheap tent? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted November 22, 2013 Share Posted November 22, 2013 Is this your final answer Mr gfs? Last time I was sure when it strayed that it was right. The support all around wasn't there. This time, not so much. I think the GFS is waggling (is that even a word?). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted November 22, 2013 Share Posted November 22, 2013 GFS ftw. Precip (what little there is) cuts off E and S of here. Ding. Ding. Ding. Winner by knock-out and still champion...... GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 22, 2013 Share Posted November 22, 2013 Until it folds like the GFS who really cares if we miss a cold rainstorm right? well maybe leesburg. as long as it doesn't f up the historic motherlode of cold that will keep me indoors for a week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted November 22, 2013 Share Posted November 22, 2013 who really cares if we miss a cold rainstorm right? well maybe leesburg. as long as it doesn't f up the historic motherlode of cold that will keep me indoors for a week. Not a huge fan of a muddy T-day, but it sure would be nice to know that 1) it can precipitate here and 2) a low can take a good track for us once in a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted November 22, 2013 Share Posted November 22, 2013 who really cares if we miss a cold rainstorm right? well maybe leesburg. as long as it doesn't f up the historic motherlode of cold that will keep me indoors for a week. I'm not vested in the cold or potential storm since I'll be in the tropics (SC) next week. Well, I actually do wanna see some record cold up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted November 22, 2013 Share Posted November 22, 2013 I'm not vested in the cold or potential storm since I'll be in the tropics (SC) next week. Well, I actually do wanna see some record cold up here. Enjoy your 2.8" of rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 22, 2013 Share Posted November 22, 2013 day 3 on the Euro sure seems colder at 850 maybe some who have pd. service already know its outcome? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 22, 2013 Share Posted November 22, 2013 day 3 on the Euro sure seems colder at 850 maybe some who have pd. service already know its outcome? looks like it should still be rather wet. mainly mtn snow probably. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 22, 2013 Share Posted November 22, 2013 looks like it should still be rather wet. mainly mtn snow probably. Ryan in the NE forum says big rain bomb maybe our being further west (than NE) will help w/possible changeover at the end idk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted November 22, 2013 Share Posted November 22, 2013 Anybody see the GFS ensemble members? The PSU site has hit the skids for a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 22, 2013 Share Posted November 22, 2013 rain or snow, that's a pretty decent 850 map for progged date of 11/26 http://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen_grbcalc2.cgi?re=namer&id=&zoom=.6&ti=0≥=1280x1024&mo=ecmwf≤=850&va=temp&in=5&pl=cf&ft=h96&cu=latest&overlay=yes&mo=ecmwf≤=850&va=strm&in=5&pl=ln&ft=h96&cu=latest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted November 22, 2013 Share Posted November 22, 2013 Anybody see the GFS ensemble members? The PSU site has hit the skids for a while. appears to be working fine for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 22, 2013 Share Posted November 22, 2013 Ryan in the NE forum says big rain bomb maybe our being further west (than NE) will help w/possible changeover at the end idk looks like 1.5-2" east of the mtns... 998 off s nj at 120 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 22, 2013 Share Posted November 22, 2013 decent snow potential up the eastern spine of the mtns from western nc up through new england. should have kept plans to go to nw ct for t-giving maybe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 22, 2013 Share Posted November 22, 2013 decent snow potential up the eastern spine of the mtns from western nc up through new england. should have kept plans to go to nw ct for t-giving maybe. day 5 5H map looks odd with the u/l still down south http://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen_grbcalc2.cgi?re=us&id=&zoom=.6&ti=0≥=1280x1024&mo=ecmwf≤=500&va=hght&in=60&pl=cf&ft=h120&cu=latest&overlay=no&mo=ecmwf≤=850&va=strm&in=5&pl=ln&ft=h120&cu=latest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted November 22, 2013 Share Posted November 22, 2013 appears to be working fine for me. Are you sure? I can't get them on that site for 12z. 6z yes, not 12z or last nights 0z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 22, 2013 Share Posted November 22, 2013 day 5 5H map looks odd with the u/l still down south http://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen_grbcalc2.cgi?re=us&id=&zoom=.6&ti=0≥=1280x1024&mo=ecmwf≤=500&va=hght&in=60&pl=cf&ft=h120&cu=latest&overlay=no&mo=ecmwf≤=850&va=strm&in=5&pl=ln&ft=h120&cu=latest looks like it wants to try to finish as snow around here tho not sure about that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted November 22, 2013 Share Posted November 22, 2013 It lags the ULL down south, the main front clears and then it brings the secondary low up, not sure of QPF though, don't have those maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted November 22, 2013 Share Posted November 22, 2013 If we got more separation it'd remind me of 3/1/09 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 22, 2013 Share Posted November 22, 2013 It lags the ULL down south, the main front clears and then it brings the secondary low up, not sure of QPF though, don't have those maps. looks like it mainly slows the end of the precip a bit. there may be some sort of a late pivot of light precip but nothing major. vast majority is rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 22, 2013 Share Posted November 22, 2013 Ryan Maue posted a Euro weenie snow map on Twitter. Does show us getting some snow FWIW. Also some snow in the Florida panhandle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCAlexandria Posted November 22, 2013 Author Share Posted November 22, 2013 looks like it mainly slows the end of the precip a bit. there may be some sort of a late pivot of light precip but nothing major. vast majority is rain. Nope, wrong. http://forums.accuweather.com/uploads/post-16-1385145225_thumb.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 22, 2013 Share Posted November 22, 2013 Ryan Maue posted a Euro weenie snow map on Twitter. Does show us getting some snow FWIW. Also some snow in the Florida panhandle still not sure on his snow maps. they seem off. but it does verbatim give us a bit and more like half a foot in se va. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 22, 2013 Share Posted November 22, 2013 Nope, wrong. http://forums.accuweather.com/uploads/post-16-1385145225_thumb.png good luck with that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted November 22, 2013 Share Posted November 22, 2013 DC snowhole so Ian is right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted November 22, 2013 Share Posted November 22, 2013 wunderground euro snow is kinda similar... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 22, 2013 Share Posted November 22, 2013 I don't know if the snow maps come out from the source as is but wxbells are always snowier than they should be from what I've seen. All their other maps are awesome but snow maps kinda suck on the whole so whatever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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