usedtobe Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 Don't laugh too hard. We do well with that stuff. The srefs you mentioned earlier also have it to an extent. Of course timing of precip is critical. You do well, dca and points east don't. I think the NAM is giving us 4" of liquid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 It appears the h5 s/w goes over us at hr 75, but by the time it does, the precip has shut off Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 BTW, looks like the NAM turns us over to wet snow by hr 66? Looks like a quick 4-6 hr burst of wet snow then shut off... that sound about right Ian or Matt? Yes its weenie NAM range, but this looks like the best "chance" of maybe a lil something something of accumulating snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 BTW, looks like the NAM turns us over to wet snow by hr 66? Looks like a quick 4-6 hr burst of wet snow then shut off Eh judging by things I'd say those along 95 may not be over to snow yet at that time. The 850's crash, but they have not advanced far enough east yet. I'd say an hour or two later may be more likely for some big conglomerates to start falling. There is the chance for some accumulation as the rates could be impressive in a "burst" like fashion. That looks to last 2-3 hours. If anything, those looking for trends, even though its the nam, its one in the right direction. What you want to continue that trend to me would be the northern stream to phase into the backside of the s/w like it does in some form on the 0z nam. Also, you want the northern vort to be just a bit weaker, but the phased vort to pass right overhead. The h85 wave does not take an optimal track, however a quick burst in a mesoscale form to what some saw in 1/2011 isn't completely out of the realm of possibility. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 silly nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 it's got a euro gradient but further east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 it's got a euro gradient but further east hires_t2m_max_washdc_17.png runs right along the fall line Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 Eh judging by things I'd say those along 95 may not be over to snow yet at that time. The 850's crash, but they have not advanced far enough east yet. I'd say an hour or two later may be more likely for some big conglomerates to start falling. There is the chance for some accumulation as the rates could be impressive in a "burst" like fashion. That looks to last 2-3 hours. If anything, those looking for trends, even though its the nam, its one in the right direction. What you want to continue that trend to me would be the northern stream to phase into the backside of the s/w like it does in some form on the 0z nam. Also, you want the northern vort to be just a bit weaker, but the phased vort to pass right overhead. The h85 wave does not take an optimal track, however a quick burst in a mesoscale form to what some saw in 1/2011 isn't completely out of the realm of possibility. Thanks for the disco. Yeah, def looked like that to me in which there is a burst before the vort passes through overhead. Just enough to whiten the ground would be nice, and thats pretty much all I am looking for on the back end of this system. Large wet snowflakes are also pretty picturesque as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 It appears the h5 s/w goes over us at hr 75, but by the time it does, the precip has shut off Here is NAM's depiction for 10 pm Wednesday evening. Maybe flurries, maybe a crusting on windshields. The atmosphere dries out rapidly at 700 mb. The idea that this week is a pattern of very cold to flurries at the beginning for a few areas to a ton of rain to a hint of snow at the end looks sound except to the foothills. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 it's got a euro gradient but further east hires_t2m_max_washdc_17.png Of course it's 2f too warm on the back side of the gradient. It can't drop 2 more degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 gfs looks like it's gonna be wet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 gfs looks like it's gonna be wet Looks on par with the silly NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 Looks on par with the silly NAM a bit more reasonable precipwise Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 kaching Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 Hope models keep making that backend stuff better. If the vort can round the base a little deeper we'd be in good shape. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 Another big time cold blast behind the storm on Thanksgiving. Could be colder than today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 Hope models keep making that backend stuff better. If the vort can round the base a little deeper we'd be in good shape. when you compare even the 0Z NAM to the 12Z you can see a huge difference with the 0Z run as it heads toward the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 GFS is toasty with the first LP. But the second is snow west of DC. Interesting solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lsukev Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 I see the back-end snow rug got pulled out from under the DC folks overnight. The Euro takes the first low west of DC now and it, the NAM and GFS have backed off nearly completely for back-end snow. Blah. If I see a couple flakes fly now, I'll consider it a win. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 On my phone, so can't see details well. Commute problems tomorrow morning? I'm seeing ptype as ice on the NAM and GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 On my phone, so can't see details well. Commute problems tomorrow morning? I'm seeing ptype as ice on the NAM and GFS. Per LWX, yes and WWAs could be introduced later today. NOTE THAT WITH STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT...OVERRUNNING PRECIP OFTEN COMES IN A FEW HOURS EARLIER THAN MODELS INDICATE...BUT PRECIP WILL ALSO HAVE TO OVERCOME A VERY DRY BOUNDARY LAYER INITIALLY. DESPITE ABOVE- FREEZING THERMAL PROFILES IN THE LLVLS...WET-BULB COOLING SHOULD PRODUCE A WINTRY MIX OF SN/IP AT THE ONSET BEFORE WARMER AIR INEVITABLY CAUSES PRECIP TO CHANGE OVER TO MORE OF A RA OR ZR DEPENDING ON SFC TEMPS. GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR ICING...FUTURE SHIFTS WILL CONSIDER WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES STARTING ERY TUE MRNG. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 On my phone, so can't see details well. Commute problems tomorrow morning? I'm seeing ptype as ice on the NAM and GFS. ugh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lsukev Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 On my phone, so can't see details well. Commute problems tomorrow morning? I'm seeing ptype as ice on the NAM and GFS. Judging by the snowfall accumulation graphic on the Euro, it has snow/ice to start as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smokeybandit Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 Travel week + ice + the everyday drama that is the Maryland Driver = bad commute Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 12z NAM .1 QPF SW part of the LWX zones before the changeover to rain... and the snow chances Wed afternoon are about zilch this run... still 3" QPF of rain LWX considering FW's for east of BR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 NAM has DPs still in the teens right up until the onset of precipitation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 Last 6 runs of the NAM QPF 3.98" 4.10" 3.82" 3.85" 3.34" 12z is back close to 4" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 NAM has DPs still in the teens right up until the onset of precipitation. I guess it will all depend on how fast we can get the precip to overcome the dry air and dry BL... hope isentropic lift can work its magic and we can get a few hours of PL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 If DCA gets over 3" I'll never let Yoda post here again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 Last 6 runs of the NAM QPF 3.98" 4.10" 3.82" 3.85" 3.34" 12z is back close to 4" This is just for fun, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.