lsukev Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 114hrs Euro shows 3.7" of accumulated snow (10:1 used) at IAD as well. Snow along 95 down to Fredericksburg north and west. Edit: sharp cutoff I-95 and east (as always) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 114hrs Euro shows 3.7" of accumulated snow (10:1 used) at IAD as well. Snow along 95 down to Fredericksburg north and west. Edit: sharp cutoff I-95 and east (as always) From HI RES euro map, matches the 850line and 32 line better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 Euro has an odd day 10 snow to rain event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 SREFs getting on board for high QPF storm... 2" in 24 hrs starting to show up on the 03z SREF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lsukev Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 I wonder about winds in this thing. Got to be breezy if we're just west of the center. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 06z NAM is 4" of rain and still falling... and its in the process of phasing the h5 energy back in E KY and W NC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DiehardFF Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 06z NAM is 4" of rain and still falling... and its in the process of phasing the h5 energy back in E KY and W NC Hey Yoda, I saw that too on the 6z NAM. If it completed the phase, would it "bomb out" some? I would think so, but not sure. Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 This is gonna be your classic 33 and rain for someone....travel and shopping look to be hideous Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 This is gonna be your classic 33 and rain for someone....travel and shopping look to be hideous I was thinking the same thing but it's a pretty quick mover so hopefully the bulk of it falls overnight and it gets out of here by mid-morning Wednesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dtk Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 Seeing how it is beating the GFS as of late. I'd say it is. Not at 72 hour lead time: http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_HGT_P500_G2NHX.png Especially over the PNA sector: http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_HGT_P500_G2PNA.png And just for fun, 72h SLP over the PNA region: http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2PNA.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 Not at 72 hour lead time: http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_HGT_P500_G2NHX.png Especially over the PNA sector: http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_HGT_P500_G2PNA.png And just for fun, 72h SLP over the PNA region: http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2PNA.png Looks like the euro is ahead in every category, and every other one I click on....unless I am reading it wrong...nonetheless it is close, and I don't really think we need the track outside of 3 days anyway....the threat is there....it is mostly just for us...both models are fine in terms of informing the public....there are times the euro catches on late..I agree with you....this "argument" is getting tired...they are both good models.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 Both models are good models. I've now written for the CWG for two storms. The GFS clearly was better with the 1st and it looks like the euro is going to be better for this one as it never got that sheared look of the GFS. If so, the ensembles gave some good advice generally having most members wetter than the sheared versions of the GFS. The 06Z GFS still is sheared but now has plenty of rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 The euro finally came back around last night. Which is major improvements from where it was. But still improvements can be made. But realistically... a good combo right now would be a blend of Euro/GFS--lol I know. The ukmet is still too far west imo. Maybe the euro slightly. The LP is and should ultimately track right along the coast or just off the coast. There is a decent Lee side trough in the SE already which as this storm evolves and the HP moves should create a greater pressure gradient along the Coast. Which would and should be the track of the SLP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 the problem with this storm is that the Great Lakes low has become sooooo much stronger than modeled a few days ago that the southern stream is being overpowered by the northern stream we're all pretty use to this scenario but it's still disheartening to see aaaagain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 Sorry Wes, the GFS is dog vomit. You're trying too hard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 12z NAM has the same general idea as previous runs. Wet and cold, but not cold enough, on Tues/Wed. Mid-30s and heavy rain is right up there with 100 and humid as the worst kind of weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 Hope everyone has their boats ready. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 12z NAM has the same general idea as previous runs. Wet and cold, but not cold enough, on Tues/Wed. Mid-30s and heavy rain is right up there with 100 and humid as the worst kind of weather. Worse. Far, far worse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 4" stripe right up 95. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 Sorry Wes, the GFS is dog vomit. Obviously, you've been drinking too much of DT's coolaid. The scores aren't that different. The Euro wins but not by that much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 If this storm could track just 40-50 miles east of Euro solution. Those of us out west are going to see some snow. As far the GFS goes. My issue is that sometimes Its solution is so different from its ensembles that it cant possibly be right. This was one of those times. The Ensemble Mean was very similar to the Euro over the last couple of days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 If this storm could track just 40-50 miles east of Euro solution. Those of us out west are going to see some snow. As far the GFS goes. My issue is that sometimes Its solution is so different from its ensembles that it cant possibly be right. This was one of those times. The Ensemble Mean was very similar to the Euro over the last couple of days. Yes, but the last storm or non storm the euro had a solution that was way different than it's ensembles or the GEFS ensembles. Heck I wrote a CWG piece on it. That happens to all models. I will say that the GFS does have phasing issues at times and seems to be too flat with waves more than too amped and that seems to be especially true with really strong systems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 GFS folding up like a cheap lawn chair. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 GFS folding up like a cheap lawn chair. It had already started folding on the 06Z run. By last night most here knew it was in serious trouble. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 we need to hope for the trailing southern vort to spawn a 2nd area of precip in the cold air as it filters back in 12z GFS continues to look better in that regard Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 we need to hope for the trailing southern vort to spawn a 2nd area of precip in the cold air as it filters back in 12z GFS continues to look better in that regard Still playing catch up to full phase the other models are showing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lsukev Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 Almost the whole country is in the freezer after the storm passes. Wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 we need to hope for the trailing southern vort to spawn a 2nd area of precip in the cold air as it filters back in 12z GFS continues to look better in that regard Big difference between 6z and 12z with the placement of the second storm. 6z had it going off the coast of GA. and 12z now has it going off NC coast with some colder temps and a little precip in NOVA. Maybe a trend to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 we need to hope for the trailing southern vort to spawn a 2nd area of precip in the cold air as it filters back in 12z GFS continues to look better in thatregard Im on the create its own cold air train. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 Im on the create its own cold air train. Models are clearly not accounting for conductive cooling from the frozen ground Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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