usedtobe Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 On 11/25/2013 at 2:45 PM, Ian said: If DCA gets over 3" I'll never let Yoda post here again I thought that was what the euro did with its ens mean at about 2.25 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 On 11/25/2013 at 2:45 PM, Ian said: If DCA gets over 3" I'll never let Yoda post here again Rain or snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 On 11/25/2013 at 2:49 PM, usedtobe said: I thought that was what the euro did with its ens mean at about 2.25Haven't looked at last nights yet. There is a tropics connection but 3" would be pretty big for time of yr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 On 11/25/2013 at 2:51 PM, Ian said: Haven't looked at last nights yet. There is a tropics connection but 3" would be pretty big for time of yr. 09-10!!! just ban me for saying that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 On 11/25/2013 at 2:48 PM, snow. said: This is just for fun, right? When has the NAM ever failed us by shooting too high in winter precip events? I'm mostly just stunned by the consistency. Usually there is a run in there that will be significantly different. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 On 11/25/2013 at 2:54 PM, MN Transplant said: When has the NAM ever failed us by shooting too high in winter precip events? I'm mostly just stunned by the consistency. Usually there is a run in there that will be significantly different. Yeah, usually there is an oddball thrown in somewhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 On 11/25/2013 at 2:51 PM, Ian said: Haven't looked at last nights yet. There is a tropics connection but 3" would be pretty big for time of yr. It would be really big time for this time of year but not completely unheard of. Right now I'd certainly go for more than 2 inches and probably would make a 2 to 3 inch forecast. It's gonna be wet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 On 11/25/2013 at 2:54 PM, MN Transplant said: When has the NAM ever failed us by shooting too high in winter precip events? I'm mostly just stunned by the consistency. Usually there is a run in there that will be significantly different. Last night's Euro was over 3 at dca and it's qpf is usually pretty good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 On 11/25/2013 at 2:54 PM, H2O said: 09-10!!! just ban me for saying that might have to skip straight to public square execution for that one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 On 11/25/2013 at 2:56 PM, usedtobe said: It would be really big time for this time of year but not completely unheard of. Right now I'd certainly go for more than 2 inches and probably would make a 2 to 3 inch forecast. It's gonna be wet. Yeah, hard to disagree with that much. But I'd still have to take the under 3" at any one point locally. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 FYI...probably another round coming after the noon guidance: Quote MDZ003-501-502-VAZ025>031-503-504-WVZ050>053-055-501>506-252300-/O.NEW.KLWX.WW.Y.0031.131126T0800Z-131126T2100Z/WASHINGTON-EXTREME WESTERN ALLEGANY-CENTRAL AND EASTERN ALLEGANY-AUGUSTA-ROCKINGHAM-SHENANDOAH-FREDERICK VA-PAGE-WARREN-CLARKE-WESTERN HIGHLAND-EASTERN HIGHLAND-HAMPSHIRE-MORGAN-BERKELEY-JEFFERSON-HARDY-WESTERN GRANT-EASTERN GRANT-WESTERN MINERAL-EASTERN MINERAL-WESTERN PENDLETON-EASTERN PENDLETON-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...HAGERSTOWN...FROSTBURG...CUMBERLAND...STAUNTON...WAYNESBORO...HARRISONBURG...WINCHESTER...FRONT ROYAL...HIGHTOWN...MONTEREY...MARTINSBURG...CHARLES TOWN...MOOREFIELD...BAYARD...MOUNT STORM...PETERSBURG...ELK GARDEN...KEYSER...FORT ASHBY...CIRCLEVILLE...FRANKLIN958 AM EST MON NOV 25 2013 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TO 4 PM ESTTUESDAY...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON HASISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW...SLEET AND FREEZINGRAIN...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TO 4 PM EST TUESDAY.* PRECIPITATION TYPE...PRECIPITATION WILL START AS A PERIOD OFSNOW AND SLEET LATE TONIGHT THEN WILL LIKELY CHANGE TO FREEZINGRAIN TUESDAY MORNING.* ACCUMULATIONS...UP TO AN INCH OF SNOW AND SLEET BY TUESDAYMORNING FOLLOWED BY AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH OF FREEZING RAINTUESDAY AFTERNOON.* TIMING...BEGINNING BETWEEN 3 AM AND 6 AM AND CONTINUING THROUGHLATE AFTERNOON TUESDAY.* TEMPERATURES...IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S TONIGHT AND LOWER 30STUESDAY.* WINDS...BECOMING NORTHEAST 5 MPH.* IMPACTS...THE COMBINATION OF SNOW...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN WILLPRODUCE SLIPPERY CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAYAFTERNOON.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW...SLEET...ORFREEZING RAIN WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FORSLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILEDRIVING. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 Al Roker had a band of 5" into DC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 On 11/25/2013 at 2:59 PM, Ian said: Al Roker had a band of 5" into DC Wow, he should be talking flooding then even if we've been dry. I wonder where he got that number. Maybe talking to H20? I could see some local 3 inch amounts though like you I'd probably take the under for any one point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 On 11/25/2013 at 2:59 PM, Ian said: Al Roker had a band of 5" into DC two days ago TWC had 95 west mixing the entire event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 On 11/25/2013 at 2:59 PM, Ian said: Al Roker had a band of 5" into DC Now if THAT happened it would be something..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bari Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 On 11/25/2013 at 3:02 PM, mapgirl said: two days ago TWC had 95 west mixing the entire event well.... that could mean anything, and i think that's their game Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 Based on recent history after this big rain event we should expect two months of dry then another 3-7" event? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 This is pretty anomalous event. v-component 850 wind anomalies are forecast to be over 4 standard deviations above normal and the 850 moisture flux just to our south is of similar magnitude. Both are really impressive. It will be fun to watch how much rainfall we get. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 I think Wes is right. I would be really surprised if we got over 3 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 On 11/25/2013 at 3:07 PM, leesburg 04 said: Based on recent history after this big rain event we should expect two months of dry then another 3-7" event?Atmospheric memory Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 On 11/25/2013 at 3:07 PM, leesburg 04 said: Based on recent history after this big rain event we should expect two months of dry then another 3-7" event? Go away you sooth sayer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 On 11/25/2013 at 3:08 PM, Clueless said: I think Wes is right. I would be really surprised if we got over 3 inches. I would take the under but wouldn't be surprised if someone got more. Such high moisture flux on the SREF ens mean suggests this is not a run of the mill rainfall event but a higher end one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 6z GFS for IAD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 On 11/25/2013 at 3:10 PM, usedtobe said: I would take the under but wouldn't be surprised if someone got more. Such high moisture flux on the SREF ens mean suggests this is not a run of the mill rainfall event but a higher end one. I think 3 inches is pretty significant. It we go beyond, then it is one for the books. We have been so dry, I am on the welcome train here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 On 11/25/2013 at 3:07 PM, leesburg 04 said: Based on recent history after this big rain event we should expect two months of dry then another 3-7" event? Yep, right after our climo-window for snow shuts, we can expect another juicy storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 On 11/25/2013 at 3:15 PM, EastCoast NPZ said: Yep, right after our climo-window for snow shuts, we can expect another juicy storm.It's the end of November right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 The NAM sim radar is really something. It is just dumping rain for 42 straight hours. I hope this is a sign of the storm tracks to come throughout the winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 sure looks line the NAM gives us some snow at the end on this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 On 11/25/2013 at 3:15 PM, Ian said: It's the end of November right now. I called it first!! Presidents' Day III Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 On 11/25/2013 at 3:16 PM, clskinsfan said: The NAM sim radar is really something. It is just dumping rain for 42 straight hours. I hope this is a sign of the storm tracks to come throughout the winter. Yes, if we could get this track to happen AND the cold to hold....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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