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November 26-28 Coastal Storm Discussion and Obs


DCAlexandria

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looking at the 12z NAM you can see how it's going to be a race as to how fast any of the reinforcing shot of cold air can get to us before the southern stream vort heads our way (assuming, of course, it does)

the 84 hrs. 850 map isn't bad at all all things considered

and I post this more for discussion and not that I am expecting the NAM to be of great weight at this time

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.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

ARCTIC HIPRES WILL SHIFT INTO THE SRN MID-ATLANTIC STATES ON MON.

MAX TEMPS ARE ONLY IN THE 30S DESPITE THE SUNSHINE.

A SRN STREAM TROUGH WILL TRACK EWD FROM THE FOUR-CORNERS REGION ON

MON TO THE GULF COAST STATES TUE. SFC LOPRES IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP

IN THE GULF AND TRACK NEWD UP THE SERN COAST TUE AND OFF THE

MID-ATLANTIC COAST ON ED. THE TRACK OF THE LOW FROM THE 00Z GFS HAS

TRENDED CLOSER TO COAST...WHICH IS MORE IN LINE WITH THE

ECMWF/CANADIAN...BUT THERE IS A LARGE SPREAD IN BOTH THE ECMWF AND

GEFS ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE. WITH UNCERTAINTIES IN THE TRACK OF THE

LOW...CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP TYPE AND AMOUNTS ARE VERY LOW ATTM.

CHANCES FOR SEEING A WINTRY PRECIP FOR AT LEAST PART OF THE EVENT

WOULD BE IN THE MTS.

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