Potential Record Breaking Cold Sunday/Sunday Night---Late Nov Discussion

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Past next weeks event how does the long range look on the euro and gfs?

[powderfreak]

LOL Euro 26 degrees at 3PM winds 30 gusting to 40 plus. NCP, "not cheap cold"

What is cheap cold? I've seen this referenced lately...new term on here?

[CoastalWx]

Meanwhile the GEFS have an awesome pattern with a more true -EPO. Big ridge right over the Canadian west coast and AK, much further east than the EC ensembles. Betcha tropical forcing is a big reason.

[N. OF PIKE]

What is cheap cold? I've seen this referenced lately...new term on here?

lol that's what scott and I think phil were saying of the cold the other morning....when radiators were in teens in SNE. cheap in the sense that it would warm up into 40's in pm sunshine

[Ginx snewx]

What is cheap cold? I've seen this referenced lately...new term on here?

Joke with Phil along with WWM, what we mean. New terminology introduced for a new season. Scooter mentioned this earlier, getting back to the euro run, some ULL magic rounding the base of the trough could lead to some bonus surprise snow. Its so far out but, with all the cold around, all the temp contrasts around its going to be wild. Analog dates rolled forward continue this theme at least until the second week of Dec. Excellent news for ski areas for sure.

[CoastalWx]

lol that's what scott and I think phil were saying of the cold the other morning....when radiators were in teens in SNE. cheap in the sense that it would warm up into 40's in pm sunshine

 

Bootleg would be the more appropriate word.

[ackwaves]

http://www.nws.noaa.gov/mdl/forecast/text/state/MA.NAM.htm

Am I reading right? 22f at 12Z on Monday? We're not allowed to scallop unless the temp hits 28f by 10am. I need to fill a bunch of T-day scallop orders and need to fish every day before Thurs. Dang!! That's cold for here.

[CoastalWx]

We should be moving through phase 5 of the MJO and heading around into the west pac.

[CoastalWx]

Nothing like sleet in one of the nation's most busiest hubs. DFW FTL Sunday.

[HoarfrostHubb]

Am I reading right? 22f at 12Z on Monday? We're not allowed to scallop unless the temp hits 28f by 10am. I need to fill a bunch of T-day scallop orders and need to fish every day before Thurs. Dang!! That's cold for here.

Really? Where do they use for the 28F reading? A thermo on the dock? The airport?

[toronto blizzard]

We should be moving through phase 5 of the MJO and heading around into the west pac.

Which means? Cold, Stormy?

[ackwaves]

Really? Where do they use for the 28F reading? A thermo on the dock? The airport?

Thermometer at the town dock.

[CT Rain]

RPM manages to develop some Sound Effect snow over the twin forks of Long Island late Sunday. 

[Ginx snewx]

RPM manages to develop some Sound Effect snow over the twin forks of Long Island late Sunday. 

Arctic sea smoke could be prevalent Mon morning

[CoastalWx]

Which means? Cold, Stormy?

 

It doesn't mean much if it's a weak signal which it might be. P5 isn't cold for us, but it's a weak signal. It may go weakly around P6-8-1 again. Those phases will help out with the Pacific, but it won't be a strong signal if the models are right. Paul Roundy's stat models for the MJO try to hang convection just west of the dateline and near Indonesia which would probably promote the Aleutian ridge -PNA look, but MJO forecasting is not all the accurate when you go out near 2 weeks.

[CT Rain]

Arctic sea smoke could be prevalent Mon morning

 

Yeah - though I feel we get that more with lighter winds?

[CoastalWx]

Yeah - though I feel we get that more with lighter winds?

 

You'll sometimes see it with ripping winds, but the smoke will disperse and evaporate quickly. Slower is better.

[weathafella]

Nothing like sleet in one of the nation's most busiest hubs. DFW FTL Sunday.

Leon Lett.

[Ginx snewx]

Yeah - though I feel we get that more with lighter winds?

Definitely, hoping they die off  in time, some of the most spectacular sunrises with sea smoke

[Ginx snewx]

Leon Lett.

LOL first thing I thought of when I saw his post.

[Ginx snewx]

Hey what the heck, they changed the Thread Ex site back, damn

[jamesnichols1989]

Where is the EPO region?

[CoastalWx]

Euro ensembles are very warm for the storm next week. Brings the low right overhead as a frontal wave.

[HoarfrostHubb]

Euro ensembles are very warm for the storm next week. Brings the low right overhead as a frontal wave.

Qpf?

[CoastalWx]

Euro ensembles are very warm for the storm next week. Brings the low right overhead as a frontal wave.

 

Some members look like they want to hang back some moisture like the op run showed as it cools off.

[CoastalWx]

Qpf?

 

Looks like a lot, don't have the raw numbers.

[ravensrule]

Leon Lett.

I will never forget when he kicked that ball into the end zone on that Thanksgiving day game.

[moneypitmike]

Qpf worry's diminishing

 

 

My worry's lessened, but this could still easily be a miss.  In the spirit of 'dry begets dry', one might say consistency may win out.

 

Of course, then there's the option of snow.  I choose that one,

 

Meanwhile, we can to enjoy today's gross temps.  Bleh.  BTW--what the hell's up with Dave's new name??

 

40.5/39

 

 

[ROOSTA]

Where is the EPO region?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pacific_decadal_oscillation

[CoastalWx]

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pacific_decadal_oscillation

That's PDO. EPO is more the area from the beaches of western Canada through the Aleutians..especially east of the dateline I believe.