Potential Record Breaking Cold Sunday/Sunday Night---Late Nov Discussion

[MarkO]

At least we got something to track.

[Damage In Tolland]

It seems like the main theme model wise has been to have rain changing to snow from NW to SE. That would appear to be the best idea at this early juncture based on all the 12z guidance. A way west wound up system makes the least sense based on progressive pattern and the OTS solution also seems less likely . We wait

[HIPPYVALLEY]

At least we got something to track.

Even if wet not white still nice to see a coastal on the models.

[HoarfrostHubb]

It seems like the main theme model wise has been to have rain changing to snow from NW to SE. That would appear to be the best idea at this early juncture based on all the 12z guidance. A way west wound up system makes the least sense based on progressive pattern and the OTS solution also seems less likely . We wait

Why would the OTS solution seem less likely?  I actually think that is what might occur... the flow and the inhospitable Atlantic got me leaning that way for now.  I really hope that I am missing something

[radarman]

It seems like the main theme model wise has been to have rain changing to snow from NW to SE. That would appear to be the best idea at this early juncture based on all the 12z guidance. A way west wound up system makes the least sense based on progressive pattern and the OTS solution also seems less likely . We wait

 

Tend to agree.  Not sure I buy a closed 550 low south of Mobile AL.  Likely too deep and too slow in the southern stream... typical euro bias really.   Split the GFS/Euro track, maybe similar to the ukie track, but weaker than the ukie.  Normal lp, not a deep bomb.  Seems reasonable to me.

[Tropopause_Fold]

It seems like the main theme model wise has been to have rain changing to snow from NW to SE. That would appear to be the best idea at this early juncture based on all the 12z guidance. A way west wound up system makes the least sense based on progressive pattern and the OTS solution also seems less likely . We wait

Lol. Why is OTS or west less likely?? That makes no sense

[Baroclinic Zone]

Lol. Why is OTS or west less likely?? That makes no sense

All solutions are on the table.  I'm curious to see how the northern stream comes into play with this system right now.  We already have the cutoff low sitting out in the SW and it's sampled pretty good right now.  It looks like we may have a rather strong s/w coming out of Canada and timing/location of that is key.  Obviously not saying the cutoff in the SW is not important, I just feel for those who want a "wintry appeal" should look N.

[Ginx snewx]

Why would the OTS solution seem less likely?  I actually think that is what might occur... the flow and the inhospitable Atlantic got me leaning that way for now.  I really hope that I am missing something

What the hell, you are a Hoar now? fun times to model watch, its all on the table. 

[forkyfork]

Lol. Why is OTS or west less likely?? That makes no sense

because snow

[HoarfrostHubb]

What the hell, you are a Hoar now? fun times to model watch, its all on the table. 

I am a Hoar now... I will be for 30000 days

 

Got to dust off some web pages... and get a new refresh button

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

if the streams phase below our lat, ur gonna get an amped up west solution whether u like it or not. the solution is still likely.

[ORH_wxman]

I can see a phased bomb being difficult to achieve in this pattern...a strung out solution is definitely viable.

 

Regardless though, no solutions within the envelope established the last 2 days should be discounted...it is going to be difficult to get a lot of wintry precip out of this in general unless you are on picnic tables in the northern mountains.

[jamesnichols1989]

What are people's thoughts with the Sunday clipper?  EURO showing signs of the clipper and inverted trough again, after dropping it previous three runs.  Caution flag thrown.

[dryslot]

lol At all the name changes, We are establishing the goal post, About all that can be said right now

[Damage In Tolland]

Lol. Why is OTS or west less likely?? That makes no sense

Recall when today was supposed to be sunny and 50 and torch and 60 tomorrow? Everything sped up a day. Same caveats apply for this. You speed it up you don't phase inland

[N. OF PIKE]

I can see a phased bomb being difficult to achieve in this pattern...a strung out solution is definitely viable.

 

Regardless though, no solutions within the envelope established the last 2 days should be discounted...it is going to be difficult to get a lot of wintry precip out of this in general unless you are on picnic tables in the northern mountains.

Hopefully Central Vt at 1420' has potential as well. I was up there last year ( post xmas storm for about 14 inch storm and i'm hoping this baby is a QPF bomb, that deepens as it goes over SNE

[powderfreak]

I can see a phased bomb being difficult to achieve in this pattern...a strung out solution is definitely viable.

Regardless though, no solutions within the envelope established the last 2 days should be discounted...it is going to be difficult to get a lot of wintry precip out of this in general unless you are on picnic tables in the northern mountains.

And even then it might be difficult if it ends up too far west.

The region for all snow on this would be very, very narrow. No way to pin that down till probably 24 hours out. No matter where you are, the higher probs are likely absolutely nothing, or a rain storm...with a snowstorm being the lesser chance.

[dryslot]

Nice clipper out in la la land on the euro, Fun times heading into December

[CoastalWx]

What are people's thoughts with the Sunday clipper?  EURO showing signs of the clipper and inverted trough again, after dropping it previous three runs.  Caution flag thrown.

 

Flurries for Cape Cod, MA.

[wxeyeNH]

Does the 12Z Euro keep us frozen up here in C/NNE or does it run the low up the Hudson valley flooding us with warm air too before the cold air rushes back in?

[Baroclinic Zone]

What are people's thoughts with the Sunday clipper?  EURO showing signs of the clipper and inverted trough again, after dropping it previous three runs.  Caution flag thrown.

Zip, Zilch. Zero.

[Ginx snewx]

I would point to Sunday early morning when the secondary Arctic push comes flying through as the time frame for some squalls and wild times with wind and cold.

[Tropopause_Fold]

Lol. Why is OTS or west less likely?? That makes no senseRecall when today was supposed to be sunny and 50 and torch and 60 tomorrow? Everything sped up a day. Same caveats apply for this. You speed it up you don't phase inland

Well not having it "phase" and be a bomb doesn't necessarily mean we can't have a system run inland. It's all just timing.

[CoastalWx]

Recall when today was supposed to be sunny and 50 and torch and 60 tomorrow? Everything sped up a day. Same caveats apply for this. You speed it up you don't phase inland

 

I could see it wound up like the GFS ensembles too,.  Too early to say either way.

 

On the euro, the nrn stream energy really stretches and shears out leaving it more srn stream driven and more disorganized.

[N. OF PIKE]

I would point to Sunday early morning when the secondary Arctic push comes flying through as the time frame for some squalls and wild times with wind and cold.

 

when does the initial Cold front swing by

[CoastalWx]

Well not having it "phase" and be a bomb doesn't necessarily mean we can't have a system run inland. It's all just timing.

 

Yeah exactly, ala euro.

[Ginx snewx]

Does the 12Z Euro keep us frozen up here in C/NNE or does it run the low up the Hudson valley flooding us with warm air too before the cold air rushes back in?

Looks good for you Gene as of this run

[powderfreak]

when does the initial Cold front swing by

Tonight up here...then secondary blast late tomorrow or Saturday night. Both should get a decent snow shower/squall response.

[Ginx snewx]

when does the initial Cold front swing by

tomorrow AM

[Ginx snewx]

LOL Euro 26 degrees at 3PM winds 30 gusting to 40 plus. NCP, "not cheap cold"