Potential Record Breaking Cold Sunday/Sunday Night---Late Nov Discussion

[ORH_wxman]

the nam tends to be too cold at this range and the gfs and euro are in good agreement

 

 

I'd still bet the under on MAV guidance easily.

 

 

I agree on the NAM though, I think the 850mb temps are too cold right now. I'd go about 1-2C warmer than them.

[CoastalWx]

GEFS bring the low over the Cape .

[Tornadomachine]

Still like the 1st week of Dec for a siggy event, 5th is my favorite date............

Hey, who wants a piece of the 288hr GFS?  Weenie land, but could we be entering a more coastal-favorable pattern?

[Tornadomachine]

Euro keeps the snowy trend.  I'm a little surprised to see how close the -10C line gets to the freezing line, that would be a crazy gradient there.  IMHO, someone gets it good next week.

[dryslot]

GEFS bring the low over the Cape .

 

Yes

[Baroclinic Zone]

GEFS bring the low over the Cape .

How does that compare with the 00z run?  Slower/Faster?  E/W?

[CoastalWx]

How does that compare with the 00z run? Slower/Faster? E/W?

I can't compare being on phone, but def west I think.

[Baroclinic Zone]

I can't compare being on phone, but def west I think.

Don't sweat it.  I'll wait till the members come out on E-Wall

[ORH_wxman]

GGEM is a Hudson Valley runner that rains all the way to Montreal. Once again...fruitless in trying to pin this down for another 24-48 hours.

[dryslot]

Don't sweat it.  I'll wait till the members come out on E-Wall

 

It was west bob of 0z

[CT Rain]

GGEM is a Hudson Valley runner that rains all the way to Montreal. Once again...fruitless in trying to pin this down for another 24-48 hours.

 

Yup... I posted that this was 5 days out and it was impossible to pin down any possible impacts.

 

DT attacked me on Twitter saying that it was a huge travel day and any impacts would begin Tuesday night lol. 

[CoastalWx]

Yup... I posted that this was 5 days out and it was impossible to pin down any possible impacts.

DT attacked me on Twitter saying that it was a huge travel day and any impacts would begin Tuesday night lol.

That's such a dumb point by him. So what's hyping a possible rainstorm

Going to do 5 days out?

[weathafella]

People are idiots to lock in plans now . I'm driving to Princeton planned for wednesday. I have an important meeting Tuesday night that I'll wait until late Monday or Tuesday AM to postpone. Even a rainstorm is no picnic for driving that distance.

[ORH_wxman]

That's such a dumb point by him. So what's hyping a possible rainstorm

Going to do 5 days out?

 

 

I think all you can really do at this range is tell people to be aware that a storm is possible next Wednesday...but nothing is certain and to check back in on the forecasts later this weekend.

 

Hyping it up as a huge impact right now could just cause more trouble than help.

[N. OF PIKE]

I think all you can really do at this range is tell people to be aware that a storm is possible next Wednesday...but nothing is certain and to check back in on the forecasts later this weekend.

 

Hyping it up as a huge impact right now could just cause more trouble than help.

no reason to hide that.....if someone can travel Tuesday they should know now to monitor forecasts and make alternate plans and make the decision monday

[CT Rain]

I think all you can really do at this range is tell people to be aware that a storm is possible next Wednesday...but nothing is certain and to check back in on the forecasts later this weekend.

 

Hyping it up as a huge impact right now could just cause more trouble than help.

 

Not sure what else there is to say about this

[Damage In Tolland]

GGEM is a Hudson Valley runner that rains all the way to Montreal. Once again...fruitless in trying to pin this down for another 24-48 hours.

Where was last nite's run?

[Damage In Tolland]

Not sure what else there is to say about this

the only change needed there is rain or rain changing to heavy wet snow and high winds

[CT Rain]

the only change needed there is rain or rain changing to heavy wet snow and high winds

 

Huh? 

[dendrite]

Still huge spread in those GEFS members.

[Bostonseminole]

Huh?

 

are high winds a threat with this one?  maybe 40mph gusts on the coast?  nothing that exciting.

[powderfreak]

GGEM is a Hudson Valley runner that rains all the way to Montreal. Once again...fruitless in trying to pin this down for another 24-48 hours.

The always accurate DGEX had the storm up the HV with windy rain here, and a BUF snowstorm, lol. It had eastern SNE at 60-70F on Thanksgiving. It's laughable.

[Clinch Leatherwood]

GGEM is a Hudson Valley runner that rains all the way to Montreal. Once again...fruitless in trying to pin this down for another 24-48 hours.

Will such a familiar situation. The thread the needle track is probably least likely with an inside runner or one scraper/ots about an even split. Given this season I would still lean right

[It's Always Sunny]

Still huge spread in those GEFS members.

Well yeah it's 5 days out.

[It's Always Sunny]

are high winds a threat with this one?  maybe 40mph gusts on the coast?  nothing that exciting.

Seems about that.

[Bostonseminole]

where is our halifax poster? forgot his name, maybe NS or NB will do well, looks like NB will get 6"+ based on the GFS

[CT Rain]

Still huge spread in those GEFS members.

 

There's a lot of amped up members... most of which are very very warm. 

[CT Rain]

Well yeah it's 5 days out.

 

More spread than we sometimes see for a 5 day forecast - that's what Brian was saying. 

[CoastalWx]

Well yeah it's 5 days out.

He means even for a five day forecast.

[Weathergun]

There's a lot of amped up members... most of which are very very warm. 

GEFS control member has 985mb low east DE then a 976mb low over the Gulf of Maine. Likely why we see so many amped members.