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Potential Record Breaking Cold Sunday/Sunday Night---Late Nov Discussion

ORH_wxman

By ORH_wxman,
in New England

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dendrite

dendrite

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Lows were still a little disappointing though. MOS kept the winds up here all night and had single digits for most sites including the relatively warm LCI. 2m temps on most models seemed to be too cold for most areas. NBD I guess, but I wanted to tickle some single digits in November for the first time since 2000.

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

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Lows were still a little disappointing though. MOS kept the winds up here all night and had single digits for most sites including the relatively warm LCI. 2m temps on most models seemed to be too cold for most areas. NBD I guess, but I wanted to tickle some single digits in November for the first time since 2000.

 

 

It looked like the NAM was a little too agressive in keeping the core of the cold in the area for as long as it did. The Euro 2m temps were much better for last night. MOS can be too cold sometimes on low temps during CAA and/or windy nights. Esp for the rad spots. It was an interesting performance by MOS...they were too warm with the highs yesterday and too cold with the lows last night.

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OceanStWx

OceanStWx

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It looked like the NAM was a little too agressive in keeping the core of the cold in the area for as long as it did. The Euro 2m temps were much better for last night. MOS can be too cold sometimes on low temps during CAA and/or windy nights. Esp for the rad spots. It was an interesting performance by MOS...they were too warm with the highs yesterday and too cold with the lows last night.

 

Very disappointed with my forecast last night. I should have known better, MOS loves to rush the overnight cold temps on CAA. All of the WFOs fell for it too.

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CT Rain

CT Rain

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Very disappointed with my forecast last night. I should have known better, MOS loves to rush the overnight cold temps on CAA. All of the WFOs fell for it too.

 

Me too - I seem to fall into the trap every year in the beginning of the cold season. Daytime highs fall well short of MOS during CAA as expected and then you have to go above MOS that night by several degrees. Oh well. 

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

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Would be nice to get a few SWFE's this year. That takes a -PNA,-NAO typically?

 

Well in theory that would give you the big snow amounts potentially, but the normal recipe is -PNA +NAO. It gets tricky where you are because the warmer air aloft is lurking close by with a SE ridge. However, if the vortex in Canada is far enough south, that potentially can give you a much colder solution and higher monthly or seasonal snow amounts. Essentially it squashes the SE ridge.

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

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I hope to never see the word "DEW" unless it is associated Wetbulbing and saturation of the column before the snow starts!

 

I pull my climo records from BED yesterday -1°F in 1989

MBY today

 

Hi:  34.7°F and Lo: 17.6°F not even close. Still was a shock to feel without acclimating to.

 

 

That 1989 low temp was with warmer 850 temps...but we had fresh snow cover from Thanksgiving storm and perfect radiational cooling conditions with the surface ridge cresting over us overnight early the 25th.

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