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Potential Record Breaking Cold Sunday/Sunday Night---Late Nov Discussion

ORH_wxman

By ORH_wxman,
in New England

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Damage In Tolland

Damage In Tolland

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With the ensembles over the last day being west of a lot of the op runs that is a flag, But like you said, We are an eternity away from the event, The more realistic time frame i feel is to wait until Sunday at the earliest, But with all the public hype out there, Besides it being a major holiday, It almost makes it impossible to hold back folks excitement when you have professionals in the business putting the hype wheel in motion

Last night the ens were either matching or even a bit east of the op runs from what we read on here. Hopefully that theme continues today.
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tamarack

tamarack

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With the ensembles over the last day being west of a lot of the op runs that is a flag, But like you said, We are an eternity away from the event, The more realistic time frame i feel is to wait until Sunday at the earliest, But with all the public hype out there, Besides it being a major holiday, It almost makes it impossible to hold back folks excitement when you have professionals in the business putting the hype wheel in motion

 

I'm figuring it will be a big event, but just because we'll be in Illinois next week, and our only thoughts will be about whether the neighbor can get to our house and check on the cats.  ;) 

I've got a long history of being in the wrong place for large November snowfalls.  Why not one more?

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dryslot

dryslot

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I'm figuring it will be a big event, but just because we'll be in Illinois next week, and our only thoughts will be about whether the neighbor can get to our house and check on the cats.  ;)

I've got a long history of being in the wrong place for large November snowfalls.  Why not one more?

 

I hope your streak continues

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

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Last night the ens were either matching or even a bit east of the op runs from what we read on here. Hopefully that theme continues today.

Ensembles will always limit the spread and allow you to see how and why models are doing what they are doing. I only discussed the GFS op because it had an iteresting thermo profile and was just digging into why it was showing it, but it was just another one of a plethora of solutions.

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

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Back to the arctic outbreak....12z NAM gets a bit colder than the 12z GFS...both at 850mb and the surface. However, even the "warmer" GFS is getting 850mb temps between -17C and -18C on Sunday for most of SNE.

 

It still looks like a close call on the front coming in soon enough to break record low maxes on Sunday...esp for eastern areas. Interestingly, the 12z MET MOS is going very cold for Sunday night. Colder than I would have expected. Its near or at record lows for all stations. We'll have to see if that is a harbingor or just a fluke.

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Bostonseminole

Bostonseminole

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Back to the arctic outbreak....12z NAM gets a bit colder than the 12z GFS...both at 850mb and the surface. However, even the "warmer" GFS is getting 850mb temps between -17C and -18C on Sunday for most of SNE.

 

It still looks like a close call on the front coming in soon enough to break record low maxes on Sunday...esp for eastern areas. Interestingly, the 12z MET MOS is going very cold for Sunday night. Colder than I would have expected. Its near or at record lows for all stations. We'll have to see if that is a harbingor or just a fluke.

 

can you get a tabular output of the MET MOS by station?

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CT Rain

CT Rain

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Back to the arctic outbreak....12z NAM gets a bit colder than the 12z GFS...both at 850mb and the surface. However, even the "warmer" GFS is getting 850mb temps between -17C and -18C on Sunday for most of SNE.

 

It still looks like a close call on the front coming in soon enough to break record low maxes on Sunday...esp for eastern areas. Interestingly, the 12z MET MOS is going very cold for Sunday night. Colder than I would have expected. Its near or at record lows for all stations. We'll have to see if that is a harbingor or just a fluke.

 

12z NAM is like -19C at 850 for OKX which is pretty close to a record for the time of year.

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Bostonseminole

Bostonseminole

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interesting that my old hometown in McKinney has a WSW before here.. hopefully a good sign for next week.

 

Winter Storm Watch in effect from Sunday morning through
Monday morning...

The National Weather Service in Fort Worth has issued a Winter
Storm Watch... which is in effect from Sunday morning through
Monday morning.

* Timing... Sunday morning through midday Monday.

* Main impact... sleet and ice accumulations on Sunday into Monday
may severely impact travel on all area roads and bridges and
disrupt air travel into Monday.

 

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Clinch Leatherwood

Clinch Leatherwood

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Lol. Either way GFS is still pretty snowy for eastern areas given the date.

Said it a few hours ago...I'm not buying the big wrapped up west solutions.  Doesn't fit with this pattern which has shown almost every event to dwindle as we approach and a total lack of major coastals.

 

I'm not saying THIS run of the GFS is right but I'd favor a scraper or OTS over anything more robust but who knows...I'm speaking mainly off of the last few weeks/months than staring at every model run.

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

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12z NAM continued the 32F isotherm march right through the waters SE of the Cape. You know it's dam cold when it does that in late November during the day.

 

 

I'm thinking the MAV guidance of 34F on Sunday afternoon for BOS is a safe Vegas play to bet the under. :lol:

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weathafella

weathafella

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12z NAM continued the 32F isotherm march right through the waters SE of the Cape. You know it's dam cold when it does that in late November during the day.

I'm thinking the MAV guidance of 34F on Sunday afternoon for BOS is a safe Vegas play to bet the under. :lol:

Same for the 20 overnight low Sunday to Monday.

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