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Potential Record Breaking Cold Sunday/Sunday Night---Late Nov Discussion

ORH_wxman

By ORH_wxman,
in New England

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Bostonseminole

Bostonseminole

Posted
Posted

nam look horrible, maybe start as snow but not end at least fo rme. I think you should return when we have the next threat, makes things easier to read.

Why would anyone be looking at the NAM? Or maybe you had the monitor upside down?

At any rate many options including ending as snow or 2nd wave still on the table

Lots of discussion about the nam here, you should read more and post less.

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk - now Free

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Clinch Leatherwood

Clinch Leatherwood

Posted
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It almost seems to me people want too much from a day 5 forecast. I thought both the GEFS and Euro Ensembles did pretty well.

They were fine. This was going to be one or the other...inside and awful or outside and a potential scraper. We may fight this battle quite a bit this early winter.

It is weird to see a track over mount Washington on the nam. Can't say you see that too often!

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powderfreak

powderfreak

Posted
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NAM says reindeer sweaters floating down the streams draining Mt Mansfield.

lol, people get a kick when it rains in the mountains. I take most of the thaw jokes ;)

Really though the SREFS were a bit east of the NAM's past op runs. Some of those ARW and NMM ones are way SE though. The SREFS from 9z I think had the mean 0C at H85 just SE of here.

It sucks because it's just enough to keep me watching the models even though we've seen this movie before when the ECM is so consistent.

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Logan11

Logan11

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I'm not holding my breath on that track. LOL   But if in the end it tracks over  BOS instead of Pittsfield I'd still say the Euro nailed it big time. You cant ask a model 5 days out to do better than within 100 miles of a given point.

 

 

They were fine. This was going to be one or the other...inside and awful or outside and a potential scraper. We may fight this battle quite a bit this early winter.

It is weird to see a track over mount Washington on the nam. Can't say you see that too often!

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N. OF PIKE

N. OF PIKE

Posted
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lol. I don't meltdown much...that's why you keep emotions out of it and look at it from a conservative and worst case scenario. Then you get happy and surprised like today when you wake up to 4-6" :)

lol there are better options then thinking worse case wx scenario's to keep emotions out of it.

I really hope you get buried thou, or i mean lol has there ever been a SITU u recall where jay peak was a wet snow bomb and stowe was rain, that could be a meltdown if we wanna think of least good scenario's for your mtn.

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Tropopause_Fold

Tropopause_Fold

Posted
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Air is so cold generating some oes flurries out by wellfleet

yeah if there was a bit more of a northerly component...even just a few degrees...there'd probably be a "decent" band running from BOS harbor to the inside elbow. just a bit too westerly right now. flow does come around a bit later on but speeds increase too much. 

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CT Rain

CT Rain

Posted
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impressive, really not hoping for power outages on Wed/Thur, but it's the nam, not sure why anyone looks at it.

 

I look at it - just another tool in the toolbox.

 

Damaging winds are very unlikely from this storm BUT if that 80 knot LLJ develops and crashes into the front like that you're going to get some mega convergence and really, really impressive rain totals along that front.

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Tropopause_Fold

Tropopause_Fold

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I look at it - just another tool in the toolbox.

 

Damaging winds are very unlikely from this storm BUT if that 80 knot LLJ develops and crashes into the front like that you're going to get some mega convergence and really, really impressive rain totals along that front.

yeah likely a big part of what is driving the monster qpf totals...that plus southern origins of the low. 

 

do think with the slightly east of due south component to the wind that coastal areas could rip for several hours. 

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CT Rain

CT Rain

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yeah likely a big part of what is driving the monster qpf totals...that plus southern origins of the low. 

 

do think with the slightly east of due south component to the wind that coastal areas could rip for several hours. 

 

Oh I think if the NAM is right we do get some very strong winds. I have a feeling that the storm will be a bit more strung out at this latitude - definitely worth watching though. NAM is really gung ho on the wind threat - it also drops 7" of rain in the Catskills with a large swath of 4"+ west of I-91 all the way through VT. 

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

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While I just spent 10 minutes reading argument over a 138 hour forecast from a couple days ago.....meanwhile this cold shot is absolutely impressive. Record low maxes are already a lock at BDL/BDR/ORH....it appears PVD will tie based on their midnight temp but we'll know for sure later and BOS was screwed by the midnight high of 31F. We figured BOS was the toughest given the timing, and it proved to "cost" them a record.

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CT Rain

CT Rain

Posted
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While I just spent 10 minutes reading argument over a 138 hour forecast from a couple days ago.....meanwhile this cold shot is absolutely impressive. Record low maxes are already a lock at BDL/BDR/ORH....it appears PVD will tie based on their midnight temp but we'll know for sure later and BOS was screwed by the midnight high of 31F. We figured BOS was the toughest given the timing, and it proved to "cost" them a record.

 

Hope  you had fun reading about that 138 hour forecast disaster! Seriously though you're right about today - we're stuck at 23 here. Very impressive for the time of year.

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CapturedNature

CapturedNature

Posted
Posted

While I just spent 10 minutes reading argument over a 138 hour forecast from a couple days ago.....meanwhile this cold shot is absolutely impressive. Record low maxes are already a lock at BDL/BDR/ORH....it appears PVD will tie based on their midnight temp but we'll know for sure later and BOS was screwed by the midnight high of 31F. We figured BOS was the toughest given the timing, and it proved to "cost" them a record.

 

I was looking back at some data and late November 1989 had some good cold with my only November min below 0° but even those daytime maxes were higher.  Even though my digital thermometer is reading 20, I checked the box a little while ago and it was still 18°.  If those temps hold within a couple of degrees, we should "blow away" the coldest max temp I've had in the last 29 Novembers of 25°.

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Brian5671

Brian5671

Posted
Posted

While I just spent 10 minutes reading argument over a 138 hour forecast from a couple days ago.....meanwhile this cold shot is absolutely impressive. Record low maxes are already a lock at BDL/BDR/ORH....it appears PVD will tie based on their midnight temp but we'll know for sure later and BOS was screwed by the midnight high of 31F. We figured BOS was the toughest given the timing, and it proved to "cost" them a record.

Sure is.  Midwinter cold.   Sitting at 29 here and going nowhere.

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