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Potential Record Breaking Cold Sunday/Sunday Night---Late Nov Discussion

ORH_wxman

By ORH_wxman,
in New England

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CT Rain

CT Rain

Posted
Posted

So can you please quote it here. What thread is it in?

 

Here are the 2 posts from Thursday AM:

 

Posted 21 November 2013 - 09:00 AM
Sort of a bummer the Wednesday threat appears to be going away - would have been nice to finally track something. Maybe a Miller B threat over the weekend?
 
Posted 21 November 2013 - 09:58 AM 
Damage In Tolland, on 21 Nov 2013 - 09:36 AM, said:
Not sure why comments are being made about losing the midweek system when the overnight runs and the ens brought it back. It seems the bigger worry is ptype vs OTS to be sure
 
Seems like the 2 most likely scenarios are out to sea or too warm for snow. The least likely scenario would be a good winter storm. Seems like everything remains sort of strung out a bit and regardless of where it tracks it's not terribly organized. Would need the bomb in the right place for snow here. 
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CT Rain

CT Rain

Posted
Posted

IMO - considering many (including Kevin) were jumping up and down about a snow threat - that call from Thursday wasn't bad. Ensembles seemed to become more confident in a storm solution by late Thursday and Friday AM and that has continued. 

 

The first post implied winter/snow threat going away as I clarified in the follow up post. Seems like that was a pretty good call considering we're debating 40F and rain vs 55F and rain right now. 

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weathafella

weathafella

Posted
Posted

Travel day issues cancel.  BOX all on board with the rain now. 

 

Low pops of snow on Tuesday

SN/RN Tuesday night,

Rain Wed

SN Wed night

 

At least they have it pegged as a 40* rain on Wed;  I was expecting a 35* one.  :)

 

14.4/9

Driving in or flying in a driving rainstorm is a travel issue.

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N. OF PIKE

N. OF PIKE

Posted
Posted

That's what I said yesterday, but then was accused of being crabby. :(

Lol you were extremely crabby.

Bob u are a good poster w some very good wx knowledge -perhaps u should go for ur met degree, but you do live in an absolute torch spot wrt rain/snow lines and warm sectors. So since this thread isn't sne centric or se mass centric , nobody needs a met degree to see you would be all rain and be likely to torch. Same for most of CP.

But WSNE could have a damn cold rain and esp western cne/nne could see a viable wintery threat, all im sayin is let this play out another 36 hrs , why lock in rain and warmth to FVE-SLK at this juncture?

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CT Rain

CT Rain

Posted
Posted

Driving in or flying in a driving rainstorm is a travel issue.

 

The only benefit is that winds don't look bad until the storm moves by so at least it won't be super windy. Low ceilings will suck for air travel but winds remaining in control will help. 

 

Driving should be pretty ugly if we manage to get the amount of rain the Euro is showing.

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powderfreak

powderfreak

Posted
Posted

Dendrite laying the smack down. It's not going to

Snow much anywhere outside of upslope regions post storm. Maybe PF pulls a David Tyree, but most areas aren't looking snowy.

It's going to be a long winter, lol. I'm right there with you guys. Never had hopes for this one just based on how small the sliver of meaningful snow will be with this system. Maybe we get lucky and the GFS pulls it out, but I'm not going to bank on what is essentially a 25-50 mile wide band of meaningful snow on the far west edge of a massive system. The track would have to be absolutely perfect.

There's plenty of man-made snow on the ground, the natural snow trails aren't open and really only have today's 4-6" on them. Not a biggie to lose that if it happens and the man made snow will be fine.

It's early. Do folks remember last year? We had bare picnic tables at 4kft on December 10th or so...then it snowed like 7 feet in the last two weeks of the month.

I also love how "4kft picnic tables" has just become the phrase for saying "northern VT" lol.

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CT Rain

CT Rain

Posted
Posted

12Z NAM brings a lot of rain to the Hudson Valley and the Greens/Berks.

 

NAM setup is almost like one of those late September/October deals with energy riding up a stalled front. Monster low level convergence in a relatively small area. NAM has shifted that threat zone NW into NY/NJ - 6z was more over CT. That's a setup for a ton of rain though. 

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted

Lol you were extremely crabby.

Bob u are a good poster w some very good wx knowledge -perhaps u should go for ur met degree, but you do live in an absolute torch spot wrt rain/snow lines and warm sectors. So since this thread isn't sne centric or se mass centric , nobody needs a met degree to see you would be all rain and be likely to torch. Same for most of CP.

But WSNE could have a damn cold rain and esp western cne/nne could see a viable wintery threat, all im sayin is let this play out another 36 hrs , why lock in rain and warmth to FVE-SLK at this juncture?

I really wasn't, but you guys were going insane with storm track which for 95% of us did not mean a thing, that's all.

I love snow as much as anyone, but I'm realistic too.

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N. OF PIKE

N. OF PIKE

Posted
Posted

It's going to be a long winter, lol. I'm right there with you guys. Never had hopes for this one just based on how small the sliver of meaningful snow will be with this system. Maybe we get lucky and the GFS pulls it out, but I'm not going to bank on what is essentially a 25-50 mile wide band of meaningful snow on the far west edge of a massive system. The track would have to be absolutely perfect.

There's plenty of man-made snow on the ground, the natural snow trails aren't open and really only have today's 4-6" on them. Not a biggie to lose that if it happens and the man made snow will be fine.

It's early. Do folks remember last year? We had bare picnic tables at 4kft on December 10th or so...then it snowed like 7 feet in the last two weeks of the month.

I also love how "4kft picnic tables" has just become the phrase for saying "northern VT" lol.

I would think there would be a bit more damage to your snow pack if the warmer/wetter models verify. I would love to sit in on one of your mountain ops afternoon meetings. I imagine they are not pleased w the warmer wet scenario if it happens. The 12z nam would be an "issue".
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powderfreak

powderfreak

Posted
Posted

I would think there would be a bit more damage to your snow pack if the warmer/wetter models verify. I would love to sit in on one of your mountain ops afternoon meetings. I imagine they are not pleased w the warmer wet scenario if it happens. The 12z nam would be an "issue".

 

Of course no one would be pleased, lol.  But this is what we do.  We've had thaws and cutters in New England before.  We'll figure it out if it happens.  It tends to be operational based and not emotionally based.  Get back to me if this scenario occurs on December 24th.

 

For now I'm riding the NMM model... ;)

 

f81.gif

 

 

Or the ARW run... another snowy solution ;)

 

f75.gif

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Tropopause_Fold

Tropopause_Fold

Posted
Posted

nam look horrible, maybe start as snow but not end at least fo rme.  I think you should return when we have the next threat, makes things easier to read.

other than a few stray flurries...i don't see much of a snow threat at the end of this. upslope into the berks / greens / whites as usual but that's about all i think. 

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Damage In Tolland

Damage In Tolland

Posted
Posted

nam look horrible, maybe start as snow but not end at least fo rme.  I think you should return when we have the next threat, makes things easier to read.

Why would anyone be looking at the NAM? Or maybe you had the monitor upside down?

 

At any rate many options including ending as snow or 2nd wave still on the table

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