Potential Record Breaking Cold Sunday/Sunday Night---Late Nov Discussion

[dendrite]

Let us pray.

And i know you were probably jokin but the tryptophan talk is old wives tale. Its the overabundance of simple carbs that cause the crash. Tryptophan levels in turkey are nothing significantly differerent then any other meat.

lol...yeah. Just making a jokingly Thanksgiving reference.

[CT Rain]

heavy, heavy convergence

 

 

[CT Rain]

That's what I said yesterday, but then was accused of being crabby.

 

lol

[HoarfrostHubb]

That's what I said yesterday, but then was accused of being crabby.

What levels are considered the mid levels? h5 or thereabouts?

[CoastalWx]

Dendrite laying the smack down. It's not going to

Snow much anywhere outside of upslope regions post storm. Maybe PF pulls a David Tyree, but most areas aren't looking snowy.

[HoarfrostHubb]

And I thought even the GFS ensembles kept flip flopping up until the last 24 hours?

[moneypitmike]

That's what I said yesterday, but then was accused of being crabby.

 

I don't think there was anyone on the board at that time who didn't think you were being crabby. 

[CoastalWx]

What levels are considered the mid levels? h5 or thereabouts?

Well technically we mean like 850-700 or so, but 850 isn't considered mid level.

[Baroclinic Zone]

Can one of you weenies explain to me what is better about 35 and rain vs 55 and rain this time of year? A cold rain is more miserable to me so I don't see the fascination.

[CT Rain]

And I thought even the GFS ensembles kept flip flopping up until the last 24 hours?

 

I think you were getting the GEFS play by play from Kevin.

 

They were always more amped than the op GFS and showed a storm while the op GFS couldn't figure out what to do. 

[Baroclinic Zone]

That's what I said yesterday, but then was accused of being crabby.

LOL and I must be a MET now. Thanks Pickles!

[CT Rain]

Can one of you weenies explain to me what is better about 35 and rain vs 55 and rain this time of year? A cold rain is more miserable to me so I don't see the fascination.

 

seasons in seasons of course!

[CoastalWx]

I don't think there was anyone on the board at that time who didn't think you were being crabby.

I tend to tell it how it is sometimes.

[moneypitmike]

LOL--right after I post temps are struggling, I jump .7* to 13.8/5.

[moneypitmike]

Can one of you weenies explain to me what is better about 35 and rain vs 55 and rain this time of year? A cold rain is more miserable to me so I don't see the fascination.

 

One is seasonable, one is not.

[HoarfrostHubb]

I think you were getting the GEFS play by play from Kevin.

They were always more amped than the op GFS and showed a storm while the op GFS couldn't figure out what to do.

Lol. Not Blizz. DT. I will go back and try to learn

[CoastalWx]

Will Kevin be using is thermo that runs too cold to

claim teens?

[dendrite]

What levels are considered the mid levels? h5 or thereabouts?

What Scott said. When we refer to upper level lows, generally that's your H5. H85 is sorta that mid/low level cut-off.

[CT Rain]

Lol. Not Blizz. DT. I will go back and try to learn

 

It almost seems to me people want too much from a day 5 forecast. I thought both the GEFS and Euro Ensembles did pretty well. 

[Damage In Tolland]

Will Kevin be using is thermo that runs too cold to

claim teens?

Keep an eye of folluw up wave or it ending as snow. That seems to be gaining a bit more traction.

[HoarfrostHubb]

It almost seems to me people want too much from a day 5 forecast. I thought both the GEFS and Euro Ensembles did pretty well.

I am guessing I read too much into the op.

[CT Rain]

Keep an eye of folluw up wave or it ending as snow. That seems to be gaining a bit more traction.

 

Maybe by the Kevin Fantasy Model. The KFM has had a really tough stretch. 

[CT Rain]

I am guessing I read too much into the op.

 

We all look at them - but I'm not really surprised (and don't think the model is garbage) when a 120 hour forecast changes from one run to the next. The ensembles kept the threat alive and were pretty steadfast in there being a storm of some sort but fairly low confidence in track/intensity.

 

The other thing is that the pattern just sort of sucks for a SNE snow event. Sure the Berkshires at 2000 feet could thread the needle but for most of us it was game over a week ago. 

[Damage In Tolland]

Maybe by the Kevin Fantasy Model. The KFM has had a really tough stretch. 

I can't find it..but you might want to to stop patting yourself on the back. You had that post one morning this past week,,,where you said it was a shame that we've lost the storm OTS or something to that effect and that it appeared we'd have to wait for a storm until early December. I replied "huh" the overight runs brought the storm back and you disagreed..but those posts mysteriously have disappeared..I know other posters remember those posts

[CT Rain]

I can't find it..but you might want to to stop patting yourself on the back. You had that post one morning this past week,,,where you said it was a shame that we've lost the storm OTS or something to that effect and that it appeared we'd have to wait for a storm until early December. I replied "huh" the overight runs brought the storm back and you disagreed..but those posts mysteriously have disappeared..I know other posters remember those posts

 

I did post that but it's not deleted. 

[Damage In Tolland]

I did post that but it's not deleted. 

So can you please quote it here. What thread is it in?

[Baroclinic Zone]

seasons in seasons of course!

I guess a 55F rainer is not seasonal anymore.

[CoastalWx]

I am guessing I read too much into the op.[/quote

Check out the PSU ewall site. It really allows you to see how the ensemble members are behaving.

[HoarfrostHubb]

I am assuming Ryan was saying what the model depicted. Not a forecast?

[CoastalWx]

Kevin it's also important to distinguish when we are talking about what models are showing vs what we think. I know I'm guilty of not being clear on that because I don't always agree, but I'll discuss why they show.