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Potential Record Breaking Cold Sunday/Sunday Night---Late Nov Discussion

ORH_wxman

By ORH_wxman,
in New England

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N. OF PIKE

N. OF PIKE

Posted
Posted

OK, I'm still learning so I need to go back and look at that.

Thanks.

Lol , it seems we cant discuss track anymore , i guess its difficult to decipher some have an interest in skiing. As long as euro is warm lock we can lock it up, if its cold we better not get hopes up bc its hype. Seems like honestly that is where some mods/mets are on this and its bothersome. Many here care about skiing/ resorts and some posters are in c my or n vt /nne seems odd the responses to quell discussion. Nobody thinks its snowing in Boston.
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dendrite

dendrite

Posted
Posted

I prefer 37 and rain to 60 and rain....as do the Catskills and ADKs ski areas I'm sure.

Well I'm talking New England outside of the slopes.It's not like we're trying to preserve much snowpack. The euro easily wipes it all out in this region. The op has +10C 850s into C VT.

If we had 6" of snow otg then maybe I'd be more concerned about it, but the net result is bare ground unless the GFS pulls a shocker.

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dendrite

dendrite

Posted
Posted

Lol , it seems we cant discuss track anymore , i guess its difficult to decipher some have an interest in skiing. As long as euro is warm lock we can lock it up, if its cold we better not get hopes up bc its hype. Seems like honestly that is where some mods/mets are on this and its bothersome. Many here care about skiing/ resorts and some posters are in c my or n vt /nne seems odd the responses to quell discussion. Nobody thinks its snowing in Boston.

And it's probably not going to snow much in NNE either. The high terrain of VT isn't exactly CAD country.
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dendrite

dendrite

Posted
Posted

And it's probably not going to snow much in NNE either. The high terrain of VT isn't exactly CAD country.

They will probably rack up 6-12" of upslope on the picnic tables on the back end of the system so ski weenies full of tryptophan will be able to hit the slopes anyways.
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N. OF PIKE

N. OF PIKE

Posted
Posted

They will probably rack up 6-12" of upslope on the picnic tables on the back end of the system so ski weenies full of tryptophan will be able to hit the slopes anyways.

Let us pray.

And i know you were probably jokin but the tryptophan talk is old wives tale. Its the overabundance of simple carbs that cause the crash. Tryptophan levels in turkey are nothing significantly differerent then any other meat.

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CT Rain

CT Rain

Posted
Posted

It's amazing the amount of posts/tweets/on air forecasts that I've seen talking about how the models are all over the place and Wednesday's storm has been a mess for the models.

 

I actually think just the opposite. This is one of the storms that proves the worth of ensemble modeling. While the op runs flip flopped (and the op GFS mainly flopped) the ensembles (both GFS and Euro) were consistent on the same type of storm and impact for SNE. Even Euro runs that were all rain had many TV mets jumping up and down about snow because the "snow total map" from several vendors of the Euro is totally bogus. Seems like getting back to basics - looking at the pattern, leaning on ensemble modeling in medium range, and trying knocked the get sucked into :weenie: fever over each operational run is once again the best bet for a good forecast.

Friday night I went on air an was pretty confident that the storm would hit and that it would likely be rain but I couldn't rule out a rain/snow mix. Seemed like a good bet at the time and looks like that will verify. 

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Tropopause_Fold

Tropopause_Fold

Posted
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It your' 65 degree torching rainstorm track happens watch for big dryslot and far less qpf than what's being talked about near and east of track

i don't see a big dry-slot taking shape until the system is north of us. someone is going to make out with a ton of rain along the low track i think. might be less to the east of the low, like you say, but that might be more in my neck of the woods than yours. still...regionwide 1"+ seems pretty likely right now.  

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CapturedNature

CapturedNature

Posted
Posted

Currently 15.5 here. Teens all day is  nice with gusts 50-60 mph adding to the festive feel

 

Different story 300' lower and higher - looks like 19° here on the digital sensor with 20mph+ wind gusts and 14° up in Union.  Not sure of the gusts there.  I wish it was whiter though but I love this kind of air mass.  This is definitely a standout cold wave for November.

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moneypitmike

moneypitmike

Posted
Posted

Yeah I got a couple inches also. Nice to see white outside.

 

Looks like most models start us as snow anyway....and probably end as snow (at least in central NY). So we can start from there and see what transpires.

 

I was just looking at the place I used to go on the Tug during my first marriage.  Outside of tonight where they only have flurries listed, snow chances every day through the forecast.  So envious.

 

I prefer 37 and rain to 60 and rain....as do the Catskills and ADKs ski areas I'm sure.

 

100% agree.

 

Ensemble mean for precip at BDL is 2.5" it's going to be a soaker. 

 

Great time of year to put a fork in a dry spell.

 

Temp really struggling here.

 

13.1/4

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