Potential Record Breaking Cold Sunday/Sunday Night---Late Nov Discussion

[HoarfrostHubb]

Thanks Brian. I have to read thru yesterday to find the convo between Scoots (who is very crabby btw) and Ocean

[moneypitmike]

Thanks Brian. I have to read thru yesterday to find the convo between Scoots (who is very crabby btw) and Ocean

 

LOL.  Uncharacteristically so.

 

A couple cold-looking calves in yard.  At least they're not trying to destroy my young apple trees like they do in the warm months.

 

It is a little nipply out there.

 

13.4/4

[moneypitmike]

Do 6z gefs agree w 6z op. 6z seems east like 0z op

 

I think we're pretty much at the point of wondering "how warm or cold do you like your rain".

[CoastalWx]

Thanks Brian. I have to read thru yesterday to find the convo between Scoots (who is very crabby btw) and Ocean

LOL I'm fine, it's just a funny convo you guys are having. It looked like they based it on MOS? I know it looked that way for BOS on their zone forecast but I did not see the P&C. What's your temp now? Kevin will probably eek lower 20s.

[Bostonseminole]

24.5 cold

[CoastalWx]

Still 22.4 here.

[CoastalWx]

It's a tough forecast based on how the grids work. High temps are between 12 and 01z, while lows are 00-13z. So there isn't really room in the grids to make a forecast of a midnight high temp with just max and min T. You have to manually work the hourly temps to show that trends. I just went and massaged our grids with the NAM12 2 m temps. That way my "high" and "low" for the day both occur right around 12z based on how our grids work.

 

At least in this way the P&C will show "highs" in the mid 20s during the day.

Bump.

[N. OF PIKE]

6z gefs have 2 members that look like euro

[CapturedNature]

16.2  and winds cranking. As deep a winter day as we ever see. Looks like we stay in the teens today..which is probably a first for Nov

 

If it does, it would be the first time on my records.  The current record is 25° in 2008.  It's currently 18° here off a low of 14°.

[CoastalWx]

6z gefs have 2 members that look like euro

 

The ensembles are still warm.  This thing is going to come over SNE.

[N. OF PIKE]

I think we're pretty much at the point of wondering "how warm or cold do you like your rain".

Lol well since i will be in central vt , im not at that point. 0z euro was mildest run for vt yet , so im gonna watch to see if that is too amp'd or not. I care mostly about nne mountains and where i will be in central vt for this upcoming system. I know there is a def threat of rain all the way up to jay peak w this puke atlantic but there is legit hope in vt/nne still. The cp of sne bores me alot as it leaves alot to be desired as a winter wx lover. I will never settle for its climo. As scooter and Will l know

[moneypitmike]

LOL I'm fine, it's just a funny convo you guys are having. It looked like they based it on MOS? I know it looked that way for BOS on their zone forecast but I did not see the P&C. What's your temp now? Kevin will probably eek lower 20s.

 

At 13.4/3 here, up from 12.9*.  I think it'll be tough to hit 20* here--perhaps 17-18 is a better bet.  If we had a snow pack, the rebound would be tougher to come by.  Either way, it'll be a good battle between the cool air and the sun.

[HoarfrostHubb]

Bump.

Yeah. I read that again a few minutes ago

I don't totally comprehend how their products mesh and what input the humans have

14.1/6. Yowza

[CoastalWx]

Yeah. I read that again a few minutes ago

I don't totally comprehend how their products mesh and what input the humans have

14.1/6. Yowza

 

Well  I think you and MPM struggle for 20 and likely stay in the teens to be honest. MOS did warm everyone up from normal daytime heating, but IMHO it's too aggressive. As we say, it's a 2m temps day because most of the time, the 2m temps are closer to being correct. MOS is a statistical product and will struggle in these early season anomalous events. We see the opposite in the spring when we have west winds in April with a high of 72 at BOS. We know it's more like 82.

[Baroclinic Zone]

The GFS has been an embarrassment with this upcoming system. It's all alone amongst the globals. The Euro/GGEM/Ukie all drill this thing up thru New England.

[CoastalWx]

Some OE clouds off to the SE. Not a fun day for Ackwaves scalloping.

[moneypitmike]

Well  I think you and MPM struggle for 20 and likely stay in the teens to be honest. MOS did warm everyone up from normal daytime heating, but IMHO it's too aggressive. As we say, it's a 2m temps day because most of the time, the 2m temps are closer to being correct. MOS is a statistical product and will struggle in these early season anomalous events. We see the opposite in the spring when we have west winds in April with a high of 72 at BOS. We know it's more like 82.

 

I think BOX had made some reference along these lines with regard to the upstream temps they were seeing yesterday behind the arctic front. 

 

I imagine we'll be able to see in the next hour or so how the sun vs. CAA is playing out.  Doing a sampling of meso reports, it seems that folks have risen about .5* from their lows thus far.

 

13.5/3, up from 12.9

[moneypitmike]

The GFS has been an embarrassment with this upcoming system. It's all alone amongst the globals. The Euro/GGEM/Ukie all drill this thing up thru New England.

 

DIdn't the nogaps have it as a hit?  There's a caution flag for you.....

[Damage In Tolland]

If it does, it would be the first time on my records.  The current record is 25° in 2008.  It's currently 18° here off a low of 14°.

Currently 15.5 here. Teens all day is  nice with gusts 50-60 mph adding to the festive feel

[Baroclinic Zone]

DIdn't the nogaps have it as a hit?  There's a caution flag for you.....

not for me.

[Logan11]

I'd still be pretty surprised though if the lowest pressure cuts west of the coastal plain. I could buy like NYC to BOS track...

 

 

DIdn't the nogaps have it as a hit?  There's a caution flag for you.....

[Tropopause_Fold]

The ensembles are still warm.  This thing is going to come over SNE.

euro came even further west - or minimally is deeper in the same western location. hi-res products actually take the low over E NYS/W NE.

 

big qpf-producer. 

[OSUmetstud]

euro is a good snow for BUF, but lead SE downslope winds on the approach are not ideal.  It will continue to change anyway obviously over the next few days.

[Tropopause_Fold]

could be quite the gradient setting up in the extended period. ec ensembles really push some deep cold into canada but the SE ridge starts to flex. mean is still plenty cold over new england though so have to like the overall look. 

[cny rider]

I'd still be pretty surprised though if the lowest pressure cuts west of the coastal plain. I could buy like NYC to BOS track...

We at least would stand a chance that way here in central NY.

My 30 miles or so west of you could help too.

2 inches overnight and 10F when I woke up.

Just like January.  With some impressive cold coming after T-day.

[Logan11]

Yeah I got a couple inches also. Nice to see white outside.

 

Looks like most models start us as snow anyway....and probably end as snow (at least in central NY). So we can start from there and see what transpires.

We at least would stand a chance that way here in central NY.

My 30 miles or so west of you could help too.

2 inches overnight and 10F when I woke up.

Just like January.  With some impressive cold coming after T-day.

[eyewall]

I decided to go ahead an post some poor quality video anyway (choose HD to watch). Note there is hardly and audio in this (due to water in the mic I think) but the wind was blowing at times pretty solidly:

[dendrite]

Who cares where the sfc low track is...mid levels torch from UCA-SLK-FVE

[ackwaves]

Some OE clouds off to the SE. Not a fun day for Ackwaves scalloping.

Nice and comfy on my couch.   No fishing on Sundays. Tomorrow might be a different story, though. Think the temp will hit 28f by 10am? We aren't allowed to fish unless it does.

[Tropopause_Fold]

Nice and comfy on my couch.   No fishing on Sundays. Tomorrow might be a different story, though. Think the temp will hit 28f by 10am? We aren't allowed to fish unless it does.

by 10? going to be close. i'd say no.