HoarfrostHubb Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 Mike. I think their automated p n c is getting the high off the midnight high If you look at their graphs they don't reach their forecast highs Weird Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 Almost ready to create a new thread for obs for a Weds Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 We'll see... GFS still hasn't bought into the extreme Euro idea. No further trending west since 0Z...two wave now, but #2 never gets up here. . Yeah seems to be the start of it going back East. Always happens..They start east..come waaay west and then the final 2-3 days go back east. I remember the Dec 27th storm in 2012 was a nowstorm for Chicago on the Euro and we know how that ended up..For you it works for a big snow..for us it doesn't matter except that it keeps it a cold rain and gives us a better shot at ending as snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 As we've said, have to watch the -PNA with no blocking because you risk messy events and cutters. The pattern can have an overall good look, but those details will not be seen in the means. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 Almost every ec ens member is a torch for Wed. Accept it and move on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 It does look like they are literally forecasting a daytime high of 21... not just implying that we started at 21 back at midnight. Of course we actually started at 18...but anyway.... 9F now. Do you see my point though regarding the published forecast vs. the recorded daily high? When I post a forecast at 4:00a.m., I don't look to see what the temp was at midnight as the baseline for the upcoming period. 13.5/6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 As we've said, have to watch the -PNA with no blocking because you risk messy events and cutters. The pattern can have an overall good look, but those details will not be seen in the means.I'm ready for some SWFEs. Let's build some concrete bases. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 Almost every ec ens member is a torch for Wed. Accept it and move on. Yep, we rain hard. Writer not here quite yet, but it's coming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 Mike. I think their automated p n c is getting the high off the midnight high If you look at their graphs they don't reach their forecast highs Weird The zones are also calling for low 20's out here. That's warmer than half the west county stations were at midnight. (I had 20.7 here and I don't get as cool as other west county sites). Enough of this though--enjoy the cold. 13.2/4. I'm incredulous that I've only recorded 24mph still. The winds are howling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 I'm ready for some SWFEs. Let's build some concrete bases. I think we may start seeing those in December. Perhaps a miller b thrown in, but we may have a SE ridge starting to pop. Hey, I'll take it too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 -PNA with no blocking would be like a double negative for cold and snow right... As we've said, have to watch the -PNA with no blocking because you risk messy events and cutters. The pattern can have an overall good look, but those details will not be seen in the means. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 You guys would really not sound neurotic if you just look at 2m temps and realize they don't move much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 -PNA with no blocking would be like a double negative for cold and snow right... LOL, it's ok as long as the ridge near AK and Aleutians is poleward enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 Must have had some snow showers in the overnight as there looks to be close to .5" on otg this morning. 14F breezy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 You guys go back to the disco OceanSt and I had yesterday regarding P&c and highs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 Almost every ec ens member is a torch for Wed. Accept it and move on.Im gonna call bust . We'll see it shift east. Still rain but that 60-65 temp/ dew temp track for everyone is wrong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 We'll see... GFS still hasn't bought into the extreme Euro idea. No further trending west since 0Z...two wave now, but #2 never gets up here. . I think the southern zones from Kevin's and east have the best opportunity from any second wave that develop if there i one , I'm anticipating a wide miss on that, but first there needs to be a second wave. It does look like they are literally forecasting a daytime high of 21... not just implying that we started at 21 back at midnight. Of course we actually started at 18...but anyway.... 9F now. Thanks--I feel vindicated at last! I'm at 13.2/4. I don't think I'm going to climb 7* to the ZFP low 20's. Yep, we rain hard. Writer not here quite yet, but it's coming. Correction, Scott. Winter IS here now, but it's going to take an unfortuantley timed 24 hour hiatus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 You guys would really not sound neurotic if you just look at 2m temps and realize they don't move much.Can you explain why BOX has a forecast high of 23 for me? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 At least Texas will have a white Tgiving Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 Is the euro EC Showing anything out this way for the midweek storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 Can you explain why BOX has a forecast high of 23 for me?The MAV/MET have 22/23 respectively for AFN today. Maybe that's why? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 Well, the sun has just cleared the hill. Let the epic solar heating/CAA battle begin. I'm beginning to wonder if I have my 'wind cup size' setting wrong and that's why I'm not getting approrpaite wind readings. Some of these gusts are really strong and even at 8' I should be getting much higher than I'm getting. I used the default size that came up on the system when I set it up. I assume that's the standard packaging on the DP2. Time to take a walk out back and enjoy the wintry chill. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 Is the euro EC Showing anything out this way for the midweek storm?Not much...maybe some fringe precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 Well, the sun has just cleared the hill. Let the epic solar heating/CAA battle begin. I'm beginning to wonder if I have my 'wind cup size' setting wrong and that's why I'm not getting approrpaite wind readings. Some of these gusts are really strong and even at 8' I should be getting much higher than I'm getting. I used the default size that came up on the system when I set it up. I assume that's the standard packaging on the DP2. Time to take a walk out back and enjoy the wintry chill. Default is the large cups. The big gusts don't come until later...I'm sure your anemometer is fine. I've only had 25mph so far and mine's up at 35-40ft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 Default is the large cups. The big gusts don't come until later...I'm sure your anemometer is fine. I've only had 25mph so far and mine's up at 35-40ft. Thanks. I guess I'm overestimating the sound of 25mph gusts. 12.9/4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 The MAV/MET have 22/23 respectively for AFN today. Maybe that's why?OkayWhere do they base their hourly forecast temp graphs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 And it appears we had more squalls after 10:30 or so Went to bed with 0.5". Now at 1.25" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 And it appears we had more squalls after 10:30 or so Went to bed with 0.5". Now at 1.25" Nothing here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 And it appears we had more squalls after 10:30 or so Went to bed with 0.5". Now at 1.25" Nice, Dave. Congrats. I'm going to call only .5" here. Sun's beginning to have an impact (minor). Up to 13.2/4 from the 12.9. Let's see how the battle plays out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 Okay Where do they base their hourly forecast temp graphs Depends on the forecaster I guess? I know a tweakage of graphical MOS is often used in the extended. I can't really answer the short range though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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