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Potential Record Breaking Cold Sunday/Sunday Night---Late Nov Discussion

ORH_wxman

By ORH_wxman,
in New England

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moneypitmike

moneypitmike

Posted
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Congrats to all on the flakes and to PF and Rick for taking home the accum trophy (it appears).

 

That's a sh*tload of rain we have coming in folks this week.  I suppose the couple day's chill won't make the ground  too frozen to thaw reaonsably fast lest there's going to be a fair amount of run-off.  At least initially.

 

Top gust so far only 24mph. 

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WXheights

WXheights

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Cleaned over 3" off the car this morning in town. Still snowing at 1.25sm, steady light snow. Plows out. Winter is here!

Good morning PF - about 1.5 to locally 4-6 north end of Worcester blowing drifting blizzard like good powder.  Last night arctic front enhansed lake effect plumes naied Mad River valley western areas reports of over 10" Fayston. Its all where the plumes st up and "enhance" -- looking like a rainstorm now per ECMWF Wednesday ugh

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Logan11

Logan11

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Flurries and 10.8 now. I suppose I had a couple inches total here, but may never know with the way the wind is howling.

 

As to Tues/Wed:  So we are reduced to hoping for a some front end thump and then some back edge snow as the system pulls away. Most models do start it as snow here for awhile.

 

 

Congrats to all on the flakes and to PF and Rick for taking home the accum trophy (it appears).

 

That's a sh*tload of rain we have coming in folks this week.  I suppose the couple day's chill won't make the ground  too frozen to thaw reaonsably fast lest there's going to be a fair amount of run-off.  At least initially.

 

Top gust so far only 24mph. 

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moneypitmike

moneypitmike

Posted
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Flurries and 10.8 now. I suppose I had a couple inches total here, but may never know with the way the wind is howling.

 

As to Tues/Wed:  So we are reduced to hoping for a some front end thump and then some back edge snow as the system pulls away. Most models do start it as snow here for awhile.

 

Nice--I ended up with about .5".  I had anticipated none-to-one.  Looks better than bare ground in any case.

 

I wonder if we can finagle teens for the high today.  I came SO close to dipping below 20 before midnight.....20.2 when the clock struck.

 

13.9/9 here.

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moneypitmike

moneypitmike

Posted
Posted

16.2  and winds cranking. As deep a winter day as we ever see. Looks like we stay in the teens today..which is probably a first for Nov

 

BOX disagrees with that.

 

THey have 22 here on the p/c, llow 20's on the zfp.

 

Tolland at 25, upper 20's on the ZFP.

 

Probably overdone by a few, but I'm not so sure on the teens down there.

 

13.9/8

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Damage In Tolland

Damage In Tolland

Posted
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BOX disagrees with that.

 

THey have 22 here on the p/c, llow 20's on the zfp.

 

Tolland at 25, upper 20's on the ZFP.

 

Probably overdone by a few, but I'm not so sure on the teens down there.

 

13.9/8

Those were based off of midnite highs. We've discussed this..but you go by the AFD..not the zones. The AFD says we've already seen the highs for the day

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powderfreak

powderfreak

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Good morning PF - about 1.5 to locally 4-6 north end of Worcester blowing drifting blizzard like good powder.  Last night arctic front enhansed lake effect plumes naied Mad River valley western areas reports of over 10" Fayston. Its all where the plumes st up and "enhance" -- looking like a rainstorm now per ECMWF Wednesday ugh

 

 

Almost 5" on the snowboard this morning at the office... still coming down pretty good.  Drifts over a foot though.

 

Wind chills well below zero.  Full winter out there! 

 

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Logan11

Logan11

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I was 18 at midnight so that's the high for the day.

 

The NAM is a two wave event now with #1 mostly frozen and the whole system is definitely more east...  We actually never exceed 2.5C 850 here for the entire event.

 

Hey its the NAM...but makes it interesting.

 

 


 

 

BOX disagrees with that.

 

THey have 22 here on the p/c, llow 20's on the zfp.

 

Tolland at 25, upper 20's on the ZFP.

 

Probably overdone by a few, but I'm not so sure on the teens down there.

 

13.9/8

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moneypitmike

moneypitmike

Posted
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Those were based off of midnite highs. We've discussed this..but you go by the AFD..not the zones. The AFD says we've already seen the highs for the day

 

For record keeping, yes.  Not from a forecasting standpoint. They don't forecast backward.  When they are forecasting the high for today, they are not looking back to see what it was at midnight. 

 

Don't get me wrong, I think they're temps will bust, but I'm not sure to that degree.

 

What's the deal with that new Birch Drive station in Tolland?  It's the same elevation as Leela Way but is 2* cooler, and it's recorded a high today of 17.6* compared to the Lella way high of 25.7*.    That 17.6 is way off compared to the other surrounding stations.  They better get their sensor checked.

 

Looks to be bottomed out here at 13.8/7.  Not too shabby.

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Damage In Tolland

Damage In Tolland

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For record keeping, yes.  Not from a forecasting standpoint. They don't forecast backward.  When they are forecasting the high for today, they are not looking back to see what it was at midnight. 

 

Don't get me wrong, I think they're temps will bust, but I'm not sure to that degree.

 

What's the deal with that new Birch Drive station in Tolland?  It's the same elevation as Leela Way but is 2* cooler, and it's recorded a high today of 17.6* compared to the Lella way high of 25.7*.    That 17.6 is way off compared to the other surrounding stations.  They better get their sensor checked.

 

Looks to be bottomed out here at 13.8.  Not too shabby.

Yes in this instance I believe they are doing that. basing it off midnite high

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moneypitmike

moneypitmike

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Still think we have to watch for it either to end as snow Wed nite or some sort of 2nd follow up wave. While it's 98% rain..still might be enough on backside to whiten the ground for the holiday

 

 

I was 18 at midnight so that's the high for the day.

 

The NAM is a two wave event now with #1 mostly frozen and the whole system is definitely more east...  We actually never exceed 2.5C 850 here for the entire event.

 

Hey its the NAM...but makes it interesting.

 

Intriguing.

 

Rick--see my response to Kevin.  I'm not talking about recording a daily high.  I'm speaking of the forecast presented for the upcoming day.  Like I said, I think they'll bust. 

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moneypitmike

moneypitmike

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That's about a minute from my house..It's tucked into a great little weenie spot probably around 820 feet or so..Houses are mansions.

 

I'm going to go on a limb and call bs on that 17* high.  I think Florida, MA had 15.4*.  Additionally, that would have had them drop only 1.5* degrees since midight. 

 

13.6/8, still have only recorded 24mph so far today.  I'm eager to see what you can get at your better siting.

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Logan11

Logan11

Posted
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Yeah my official point/click on NWS site is 21 here. I don't think we will be near that for a high with the kind of cold advection all day.

Intriguing.

 

Rick--see my response to Kevin.  I'm not talking about recording a daily high.  I'm speaking of the forecast presented for the upcoming day.  Like I said, I think they'll bust. 

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moneypitmike

moneypitmike

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Yeah my official point/click on NWS site is 21 here. I don't think we will be near that for a high with the kind of cold advection all day.

 

Do you see my point though regarding the published forecast vs. the recorded daily high?  When I post a forecast at 4:00a.m., I don't look to see what the temp was at midnight as the baseline for the upcoming period.

 

13.5/6

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Damage In Tolland

Damage In Tolland

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I was 18 at midnight so that's the high for the day.

 

The NAM is a two wave event now with #1 mostly frozen and the whole system is definitely more east...  We actually never exceed 2.5C 850 here for the entire event.

 

Hey its the NAM...but makes it interesting.

Yeah seems to be the start of it going back East. Always happens..They start east..come waaay west and then the final 2-3 days go back east. I remember the Dec 27th storm in 2012 was a nowstorm for Chicago on the Euro  and we know how that ended up..For you it works for a big snow..for us it doesn't matter except that it keeps it a cold rain and gives us a better shot at ending as snow

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Damage In Tolland

Damage In Tolland

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Do you see my point though regarding the published forecast vs. the recorded daily high?  When I post a forecast at 4:00a.m., I don't look to see what the temp was at midnight as the baseline for the upcoming period.

 

13.5/6

See they are basing that forecast off midnight highs..click on the p and c and you'll see those numbers as the forecast

 

 

High temps so far today at our local climate sites: BOS 31 at 00:28, ORH 24 at 00:15, PVD 31 at 00:08 and BDL 28 at 00:19.

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moneypitmike

moneypitmike

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Yeah seems to be the start of it going back East. Always happens..They start east..come waaay west and then the inal 2-3 days go back east. I remember the Dec 27th storm in 2012 was a nowstorm for Chicago on the Euro  and we know how that ended up

 

Can we bump this to the 'hated/loved winter terms and phrases' thread?  :)

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moneypitmike

moneypitmike

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See they are basing that forecast off midnight highs..click on the p and c and you'll see those numbers as the forecast

 

 

High temps so far today at our local climate sites: BOS 31 at 00:28, ORH 24 at 00:15, PVD 31 at 00:08 and BDL 28 at 00:19.

 

You are completely missing the point. 

 

I am not saying the daily high is coming during the daytime.  That's never been in dispute.

 

What I am saying is that when I post a forecast at 4:00a.m. for the coming period, the high temp I predict for that upcoming period is not the high temp that occured six hours earlier.

 

13.4/5

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