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Potential Record Breaking Cold Sunday/Sunday Night---Late Nov Discussion

ORH_wxman

By ORH_wxman,
in New England

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powderfreak

powderfreak

Posted
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At some point guidance will collapse towards one or the other solution....perhaps not entirely...but something will give. Amazing battle.

 

It is pretty incredible.  But day 3-4 is still a good deal of time in model world... I know we'd like to think these things are better than that, but it feels like anything can still happen, lol.

 

The sensible weather differences in the two camps is staggering especially coming on one of the busiest travel days of the entire year.  What are the chances of that?  haha.

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
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It is pretty incredible.  But day 3-4 is still a good deal of time in model world... I know we'd like to think these things are better than that, but it feels like anything can still happen, lol.

 

The sensible weather differences in the two camps is staggering especially coming on one of the busiest travel days of the entire year.  What are the chances of that?  haha.

 

But these differences are starting early. The GFS refuses to dig the nrn stream like Phil said. It may be a bias too..but it's fun to see how models handle this.

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powderfreak

powderfreak

Posted
Posted

Just had a band of snow showers blow through. No biggie. Light dusting blowing around when it was coming through. 31.1* and dropping.

 

Yeah we've had the "persistent flurry" almost all day today with nothing but a little whitening of some surfaces here in town, and at the mountain it was maybe a 1/4" dusting.  Some call it "mood flakes"...pretty standard for any CAA. 

 

Some heavier stuff looks to be approaching from the Adirondacks.  Froude Numbers very high with the well mixed atmosphere, so crest and eastward is where BTV is pegging the more consistent snow showers.  I'd assume its the same down your way in the Berkshires with the good mixing there's not going to be a chance to "block" or slow the flow down...this is a situation where Mike and Pete's area will pick up the snow showers easily, and likely carry well downwind into SNE.

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OceanStWx

OceanStWx

Posted
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Well I mean the zone forecasts. Couldn't they just say near steady temps in the upper 20s? They had upper 20s this morning in the zones, but looks like they ripped off MOS.

 

True, they are definitely warmer than what I have in there for 18-21z tomorrow. There are a few pixels of 32 or so in and around BOS.

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wxmanmitch

wxmanmitch

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Yeah we've had the "persistent flurry" almost all day today with nothing but a little whitening of some surfaces here in town, and at the mountain it was maybe a 1/4" dusting.  Some call it "mood flakes"...pretty standard for any CAA. 

 

Some heavier stuff looks to be approaching from the Adirondacks.  Froude Numbers very high with the well mixed atmosphere, so crest and eastward is where BTV is pegging the more consistent snow showers.  I'd assume its the same down your way in the Berkshires with the good mixing there's not going to be a chance to "block" or slow the flow down...this is a situation where Mike and Pete's area will pick up the snow showers easily, and likely carry well downwind into SNE.

 

The snow showers will likely weaken once they leave the Berkshires, but flakes could make it deep into SNE tonight.

 

That batch over the Adirondacks looks pretty potent and could bring a quick 1-2" for the orographically favored areas up your way.

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powderfreak

powderfreak

Posted
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Arctic front just came through in Albany. Nice snow squall whitening the ground. Very strong wind gusts and temp just dropped to 30f.

 

Sweet!  Glad to see you are still around and posting too :)  I still remember chatting over beers several winters ago when I was laid up with a broken leg.  Hope all is well and its about time for a big winter for the ALB area.

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powderfreak

powderfreak

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The snow showers will likely weaken once they leave the Berkshires, but flakes could make it deep into SNE tonight.

 

That batch over the Adirondacks looks pretty potent and could bring a quick 1-2" for the orographically favored areas up your way.

 

Yeah, I think the ORH hills will at least get something...flakes or a heavy dusting.  Froude values of 1-2.5 is quite high... I bet some of those snow showers could make it all the way to Ginxy tonight with the fast flow.

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snowgeek

snowgeek

Posted
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Sweet!  Glad to see you are still around and posting too :)  I still remember chatting over beers several winters ago when I was laid up with a broken leg.  Hope all is well and its about time for a big winter for the ALB area.

This weather is gonna wake up my posting.  Snow and beer!  A perfect combo.  Albany needs a snowy winter.  Hope the snow is deep and widespread this year for all :drunk: .  Still snowing here.  Ground is white...looks like winter!

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Damage In Tolland

Damage In Tolland

Posted
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That evolution is brutal. Plants a low pressure on top of convection in N FL and races it out into the Atlantic. Then develops another low back with the s/wv.

Oddly we've seen all the models at one time or another the last few days develop that follow up wave . You almost wonder if there's some validity to it. First one is milder and rains and 2nd maybe has enough cold air with it as front shifts east to get some areas into a little snows?
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