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Potential Record Breaking Cold Sunday/Sunday Night---Late Nov Discussion

ORH_wxman

By ORH_wxman,
in New England

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powderfreak

powderfreak

Posted
Posted

Love this discussion by BTV... brutish, lol.  Going to be fun riding the chairlift to the summit in 40-60mph winds and an ambient temperature near zero at the summit.  Wonder if we can hit -20F wind chills tomorrow.

 

CONDITIONS BY SUNRISE SUNDAY ACTUALLY QUITE
BRUTISH WITH TEMPERATURES FROM 8 TO 18 ABOVE ALONG WITH WINDS
GUSTING FROM 30 TO 40 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 319 PM EST SATURDAY...THEN JUST A ROUGH DAY ON SUNDAY AS
STRONG POST-FRONTAL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA
AND TEMPERATURES HOLD MORE OR LESS STEADY FROM THE MID TEENS TO
THE LOWER 20S. THIS WILL LIKELY BE THE COLDEST DAY SINCE MID-
FEBRUARY AND WITH THE WINDS IT WILL FEEL LIKE MID-WINTER.

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OceanStWx

OceanStWx

Posted
Posted

BOS will likely make teens tomorrow night  I'll try to dig it up, but it may be one of the earliest in many years. Off the top of my head, maybe 2000 or 2002, 2004 may have done so.

 

Last 13 years worth of data for min temps lower than 20. Only twice in November, and the long term average is about 12/11.

2000       Mar 18   Nov 24    2502001       Mar  2   Feb  5    3392002       Mar 22   Nov 28    2502003       Mar 14   Dec  2    2622004       Feb 17   Dec 15    3012005       Mar 10   Dec  8    2722006       Mar  1   Jan 16    3202007       Mar  9   Dec  1    2662008       Feb 29   Dec  8    2822009       Mar  4   Dec 17    2872010       Feb  7   Dec  9    3042011       Mar  4   Dec 19    2892012       Feb 13   Jan  2    3232013       Feb 18     Miss      -
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Ginx snewx

Ginx snewx

Posted
Posted

 

Last 13 years worth of data for min temps lower than 20. Only twice in November, and the long term average is about 12/11.

2000       Mar 18   Nov 24    2502001       Mar  2   Feb  5    3392002       Mar 22   Nov 28    2502003       Mar 14   Dec  2    2622004       Feb 17   Dec 15    3012005       Mar 10   Dec  8    2722006       Mar  1   Jan 16    3202007       Mar  9   Dec  1    2662008       Feb 29   Dec  8    2822009       Mar  4   Dec 17    2872010       Feb  7   Dec  9    3042011       Mar  4   Dec 19    2892012       Feb 13   Jan  2    3232013       Feb 18     Miss      -

There is a common denominator there with that limited data , would like to see that from say 1950 on

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted

 

Last 13 years worth of data for min temps lower than 20. Only twice in November, and the long term average is about 12/11.

2000       Mar 18   Nov 24    2502001       Mar  2   Feb  5    3392002       Mar 22   Nov 28    2502003       Mar 14   Dec  2    2622004       Feb 17   Dec 15    3012005       Mar 10   Dec  8    2722006       Mar  1   Jan 16    3202007       Mar  9   Dec  1    2662008       Feb 29   Dec  8    2822009       Mar  4   Dec 17    2872010       Feb  7   Dec  9    3042011       Mar  4   Dec 19    2892012       Feb 13   Jan  2    3232013       Feb 18     Miss      -

 

Thanks Chris. So there is 2000 and 2002. I hope this winter behaves similar to that, despite kind of getting porked relatively speaking in '00-'01.

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Ginx snewx

Ginx snewx

Posted
Posted

There is a common denominator there with that limited data , would like to see that from say 1950 on

Got it for all Novembers in Boston

Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Year
Lowest Min Temperature
Missing Count
1	1938	12	0
2	1936	13	0
3	1989	15	0
-	1949	15	0
5	1987	16	0
-	1951	16	0
7	2000	17	0
-	1978	17	0
-	1972	17	0
-	1957	17	0
-	1940	17	0
12	1993	18	0
-	1958	18	0
14	2002	19	0
-	1986	19	0
16	1996	20	0
-	1956	20	0
-	1942	20	0
19	2005	21	0
-	1967	21	0
-	1939	21	0
22	2008	22	0
-	2007	22	0
-	1997	22	0
-	1994	22	0
-	1969	22	0
-	1959	22	0
-	1955	22	0
29	1995	23	0
-	1976	23	0
-	1974	23	0
-	1937	23	0
33	2004	24	0
-	1971	24	0
-	1964	24	0
-	1943	24	0
37	1992	25	0
-	1985	25	0
-	1984	25	0
-	1982	25	0
-	1970	25	0
-	1947	25	0
-	1945	25	0
44	1981	26	0
-	1980	26	0
-	1965	26	0
-	1941	26	0
48	2003	27	0
-	1999	27	0
-	1966	27	0
-	1962	27	0
-	1961	27	0
-	1950	27	0
-	1946	27	0
55	2010	28	0
-	1991	28	0
-	1990	28	0
-	1988	28	0
-	1983	28	0
-	1960	28	0
-	1954	28	0
-	1952	28	0
-	1948	28	0
64	2001	29	0
-	1979	29	0
-	1977	29	0
-	1944	29	0
68	2012	30	0
-	1973	30	0
-	1963	30	0
-	1953	30	0
72	2011	31	0
-	1998	31	0
74	2006	32	0
-	1968	32	0
76	1975	33	0
77	2009	35	0
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Ginx snewx

Ginx snewx

Posted
Posted

I ran the data from 1936, that's the 12/11 average first date for teens min temps. I just posted the last 13 years worth to keep the post short.

Boston is a heat island BDL has two single digit days



Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Year
Lowest Min Temperature
Missing Count
1	1989	1	0
2	1986	9	0
3	1951	10	0
4	2000	11	0
5	2002	12	0
-	1995	12	0
-	1993	12	0
-	1972	12	0
-	1958	12	0
-	1956	12	0
-	1949	12	1
12	2005	13	0
-	1987	13	0
-	1978	13	0
-	1976	13	0
-	1957	13	0
17	1974	14	0
-	1969	14	0
-	1964	14	0
20	1982	15	0
-	1960	15	0
22	1996	16	3
-	1967	16	0
24	1997	17	0
25	2008	18	0
-	2004	18	0
-	2001	18	0
-	1994	18	0
-	1984	18	0
-	1980	18	0
-	1970	18	0
-	1962	18	0
-	1959	18	0
-	1955	18	0
-	1952	18	0
-	1950	18	0
37	2007	19	0
-	2003	19	0
-	1992	19	0
-	1973	19	0
-	1966	19	0
42	2012	20	0
-	1988	20	0
-	1965	20	0
45	1991	21	0
-	1981	21	0
-	1971	21	0
-	1961	21	0
49	2010	22	0
-	1998	22	0
-	1968	22	0
-	1954	22	0
53	2011	23	0
-	2006	23	0
-	1983	23	0
-	1979	23	0
-	1977	23	0
58	1990	24	0
-	1985	24	0
-	1963	24	0
61	1999	25	0
62	2009	26	0
-	1975	26	0
64	1953	27	0
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moneypitmike

moneypitmike

Posted
Posted

True. $100 donation last drive plus $$ to Allen for access should mean something. Besides, we have 2 Tempu-Pedics already.

 

LOL. 

 

Appears to be mid-winteresque here at the Pit.

 

Tonight: Mostly cloudy. A chance of snow showers this evening... Then a chance of flurries after midnight. Colder with lows around 16. West winds 15 to 20 mph with gusts up to 35 mph. Chance of snow 30 percent.

Sunday: Mostly sunny and blustery. Much colder. Near steady temperature around 19. Northwest winds 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 45 mph.

Sunday Night: Mostly clear and blustery. Cold with lows around 7 above. Northwest winds 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 45 mph... Diminishing to 10 to 15 mph with gusts up to 25 mph after midnight

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Ginx snewx

Ginx snewx

Posted
Posted

Wind advisory in effect from 7 AM sunday to 1 AM EST monday...

the National Weather Service in taunton has issued a wind
advisory, which is in effect from 7 AM sunday to 1 AM EST
monday.

* location, all of massachusetts, all of rhode island, northern
connecticut, as well as cheshire and hillsborough counties in
new hampshire.

* winds, northwest 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 45 mph.

* timing, winds will increase sunday morning, with the strongest
winds from late morning into sunday evening.

* impacts, winds may bring down large tree branches and cause
isolated power outages.

precautionary/preparedness actions...

a wind advisory is issued when sustained winds are forecast to be
31 to 39 mph or gusts will range between 46 and 57 mph. winds
this strong are capable of downing small tree limbs and
branches, possibly causing isolated power outages. driving can
also be difficult, especially for high profile vehicles.

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moneypitmike

moneypitmike

Posted
Posted

The disconnect between the bolded below is kind of funny......what am I missing???

 

WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM SUNDAY TO 1 AM EST MONDAY...

 

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TAUNTON HAS ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM SUNDAY TO 1 AM EST MONDAY.

 

*LOCATION...ALL OF MASSACHUSETTS...ALL OF RHODE ISLAND...NORTHERN CONNECTICUT...AS WELL AS CHESHIRE AND HILLSBOROUGH COUNTIES IN NEW HAMPSHIRE.

 

* WINDS...NORTHWEST 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH.

 

* TIMING...WINDS WILL INCREASE SUNDAY MORNING...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS FROM LATE MORNING INTO SUNDAY EVENING. * IMPACTS...WINDS MAY BRING DOWN LARGE TREE BRANCHES AND CAUSE ISOLATED POWER OUTAGES.

 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

 

A WIND ADVISORY IS ISSUED WHEN SUSTAINED WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE 31 TO 39 MPH OR GUSTS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 46 AND 57 MPH. WINDS THIS STRONG ARE CAPABLE OF DOWNING SMALL TREE LIMBS AND BRANCHES...POSSIBLY CAUSING ISOLATED POWER OUTAGES. DRIVING CAN ALSO BE DIFFICULT...ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES.

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OceanStWx

OceanStWx

Posted
Posted

BOX has low 30s for BOS tomorrow, but I think they will struggle for 27.

 

It's a tough forecast based on how the grids work. High temps are between 12 and 01z, while lows are 00-13z. So there isn't really room in the grids to make a forecast of a midnight high temp with just max and min T. You have to manually work the hourly temps to show that trends. I just went and massaged our grids with the NAM12 2 m temps. That way my "high" and "low" for the day both occur right around 12z based on how our grids work.

 

At least in this way the P&C will show "highs" in the mid 20s during the day.

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted

It's a tough forecast based on how the grids work. High temps are between 12 and 01z, while lows are 00-13z. So there isn't really room in the grids to make a forecast of a midnight high temp with just max and min T. You have to manually work the hourly temps to show that trends. I just went and massaged our grids with the NAM12 2 m temps. That way my "high" and "low" for the day both occur right around 12z based on how our grids work.

 

At least in this way the P&C will show "highs" in the mid 20s during the day.

 

Well I mean the zone forecasts. Couldn't they just say near steady temps in the upper 20s? They had upper 20s this morning in the zones, but looks like they ripped off MOS.

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