Potential Record Breaking Cold Sunday/Sunday Night---Late Nov Discussion

[CoastalWx]

We may not even get flurries. Looks like it may be more of a NNE type of deal.

They'll probably be some flurries floating around with lake effect rot coming through. Usually those strong WNW winds days can do that. Also a bit unstable aloft, but yeah...nothing notable obviously.

[Damage In Tolland]

Maybe briefly, but just stating where it's mostly

Snow. It doesn't meant anything with this pattern and bing 5+ days out. It's too bad it wasn't later in the season given some of these runs. The system ahead of it gives WAA especially aloft which complicates the picture.

If it bombs like the GFS/EURO Ens and GEFS..we'd all flip to heavy snow with strong 50-60mph winds on backside.

[CoastalWx]

If it bombs like the GFS/EURO Ens and GEFS..we'd all flip to heavy snow with strong 50-60mph winds on backside.

Yeah you want this to go to town SE, but not too close or it wraps in warmer air with the 850 low. It's certainly something to watch, but there is so much time left of model land.

[It's Always Sunny]

They'll probably be some flurries floating around with lake effect rot coming through. Usually those strong WNW winds days can do that. Also a bit unstable aloft, but yeah...nothing notable obviously.

Good point, didn't realize how windy it's actually going to be Sunday.

[CoastalWx]

Good point, didn't realize how windy it's actually going to be Sunday.

That game will be frigid Sunday night.

[Damage In Tolland]

Good point, didn't realize how windy it's actually going to be Sunday.

Winds are gonna gust over 50mph Sunday

[Clinch Leatherwood]

The big take home message to me is the fact that the pattern of lack of qpf for the past few months appears per the guidance to be on the verge of breaking. Good news!

The other take away to me is that sometimes we are looking so hard so far ahead we don't give a good enough look at what's right in front of us.

This isn't how it's normally drawn up on the indexes but we are still about to see record breaking cold. It remains to be seen on the snow - there have been plenty of threads d4+ that vanish in tight but the signal has been so strong on this one for almost 9 days that I would be surprised if it was a total fail.

[Weathergun]

Hurricane force wind gusts possible for Atlantic Canada, for Thanksgiving if the GFS is correct::

 

[dryslot]

6z GFS op is a wallop here too...too bad it's still in d5-6 territory.

 

We need a few more days for sure, The trend has been favorable at least, Now just to continue it

[Hazey]

Hurricane force wind gusts possible for Atlantic Canada, for Thanksgiving if the GFS is correct::

Wow. That would be interesting. It's been a while since I've experienced a good wind storm.

[moneypitmike]

That game will be frigid Sunday night.

 

Isn't tv a good thing??

 

Winds are gonna gust over 50mph Sunday

 

BOX taking the under at this point.  We'll see how it evolves.

 

Fun things to track this week regardless.

[Weathergun]

Wow. That would be interesting. It's been a while since I've experienced a good wind storm.

 

Very tight pressure gradient with strong high over the North Atlantic. 62mb difference:

 

[Clinch Leatherwood]

Without strong blocking I'm not sure we see a beast of a storm tucking into coastal canada. Something delayed in strengthening seems initially more reasonable to me.

[ORH_wxman]

Nothing has changed for the storm system as far as I'm concerned...its still 5-6 days out. I get that it is too irresistable for many to weenie out over details, but really, it doesn't mean much of anything right now.

 

As for the cold shot which is much more imminent, MOS numbers fell a bit (as expected when you get closer to anomalous cold shots) but I still think they are way too warm in some spots....like for BDR, MAV guidance is going a high of 37F for Sunday afternoon...not a chance. Its a 2m temp kind of day again.

[Tropopause_Fold]

Those wxbell maps are always pure weenieism. They are way too generous near the 850 0C imo

Agree 100%. They look nothing like what you would expect when you look aloft first

[CoastalWx]

Agree 100%. They look nothing like what you would expect when you look aloft first

Those maps are a weenie's dream and a met's nightmare.

[Ginx snewx]

Damn Ens look good right up until Dec 8th

[dendrite]

Agree 100%. They look nothing like what you would expect when you look aloft first

yeah...i'm not sure if it's produced by ecmwf or if it's a wxbell algorithm, but something appears off. I wonder how many levels wxbell has access to. I know they plot the 32 & 35F 2m isotherms on the snow maps too. I'd assume it has something to do with max temp in the column being < 0C for the 6hr period, but with JB involved who knows what snowy biases are involved.

[toronto blizzard]

Damn Ens look good right up until Dec 8th

Very nice -EPO and blocking around Greenland.

[CoastalWx]

yeah...i'm not sure if it's produced by ecmwf or if it's a wxbell algorithm, but something appears off. I wonder how many levels wxbell has access to. I know they plot the 32 & 35F 2m isotherms on the snow maps too. I'd assume it has something to do with max temp in the column being < 0C for the 6hr period, but with JB involved who knows what snowy biases are involved.

It looked close to the 0C 850 isotherm, but we all know how well that works as the ra/sn line lol. It may be an EC algorithm thing because those weenie maps on Wunderground also seem too generous.

[CoastalWx]

Very nice -EPO and blocking around Greenland.

There isn't Greenland blocking really but the EPO is decent,

[Tropopause_Fold]

Agree 100%. They look nothing like what you would expect when you look aloft firstyeah...i'm not sure if it's produced by ecmwf or if it's a wxbell algorithm, but something appears off. I wonder how many levels wxbell has access to. I know they plot the 32 & 35F 2m isotherms on the snow maps too. I'd assume it has something to do with max temp in the column being < 0C for the 6hr period, but with JB involved who knows what snowy biases are involved.

I believe Ryan M. developed it. It's not from ECMWF as far as I know

[CoastalWx]

I believe Ryan M. developed it. It's not from ECMWF as far as I know

 

I also noticed the 700mb 0c isotherm gets to about TOL to ORH for a brief time which means there may be a warm layer between 850 and 700mb. Those maps look way to generous.

[dryslot]

I also noticed the 700mb 0c isotherm gets to about TOL to ORH for a brief time which means there may be a warm layer between 850 and 700mb. Those maps look way to generous.

 

That would not be a real shock to have a sneaky warm tongue in here with the way this one is currently modeled, Really would like to see more cold air but seeing its November we will have to work with whats available, 3 weeks from now it probably would not matter as much

[Baroclinic Zone]

I also noticed the 700mb 0c isotherm gets to about TOL to ORH for a brief time which means there may be a warm layer between 850 and 700mb. Those maps look way to generous.

You give what the public wants, right?  Should be a fun system regardless of track.  Hopefully we can break out of this persistent dry pattern.

[toronto blizzard]

There isn't Greenland blocking really but the EPO is decent,

It's more of a NATL ridge I guess. But that's a decent poleward EPO ridge.

[CoastalWx]

It's more of a NATL ridge I guess. But that's a decent poleward EPO ridge.

The ridge near Greenland becomes damped out, but the GEFS have a bit of a stronger signal. I'm not quite sold on that so we'll have to watch it, but the Aleutian ridge (not EPO) is decent. GEFS have more of a -EPO.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Well we are a step closer to threading the needle I guess

[weathafella]

I didn't expect an most of day light steady rain today. Guess I have to get my head out of D3+ once in awhile...

[Damage In Tolland]

I didn't expect an most of day light steady rain today. Guess I have to get my head out of D3+ once in awhile...

Just finished blowing the last of the leaves out of the beds and yard and into the woods in a soaking, cold November rain. Yard work is complete. Let the flakes fly long and deep.

 

Donny S. just threw in the towel and has gone cold Dec.