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Potential Record Breaking Cold Sunday/Sunday Night---Late Nov Discussion

ORH_wxman

By ORH_wxman,
in New England

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Ginx snewx

Ginx snewx

Posted
Posted

I'm saying that at this time range, how often do things work out like you want them too? There's a reason people are skeptical of being shown a personally exciting scenario at this time range. It's where the, "right where we want it now" phrase came from.

That is your preference, self protection from outcomes that would affect you emotionally? Did you suffer from wishing from too much snow and getting rain as a kid? LOL.

To say that the least exciting outcome wins in this setup for your area is just not true. Sure most of the time modeled storms do not work out but looking at the whole of the situation my guess is you on your picnic table with your Yogi lunchbox are snowing 85% of the time. Just talking about this setup only.

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
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Right, but I don't see the harm in discussing whether or not it we're in the upper 40's as it tracks near ORH, or in the upper 30's on a track near the bridge.

 

This was never likely to have us sledding off the excess of calories from our T-day gluttony lol

 

Good to see you posting.

 

It's more in a response to those that have a snow agenda and are having difficulties dealing with the possibility of a 40+F rain. 

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moneypitmike

moneypitmike

Posted
Posted

Ray channeling Tip???

This seems like a classic cold season event in which the requisite blocking to pin this near 40/70 is absent, but yet so are the overwhelming synoptics necessary to drive this bodily into ORH points west.

What we are likely to see unfold is a rather uninspiring event passing near cc/se MA, offering up a cold rain for most, with some mood flakes interspersed on it's outer fringes.

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40/70 Benchmark

40/70 Benchmark

Posted
Posted

I know it's a wx board, but the variance right now is so difficult to figure out given the srn and nrn shortwaves. Since this low is almost a frontal wave, a track over ORH is very plausible. This isn't an area of low pressure moving in from the SW with a high to the north. In that case we can lock in a CC track. This case is a bit different in that we easily could see a low develop along the front as the euro shows.

Fair enough, but a track over ORH is so climatologically unfavorable that I will bet against it every time, and prevail in about 98% of those instances. 

 

All I am saying is that I think this has a greater likelihood of running the CT, or Hudson valley, than it does of flipping the Will the byrd as it races over Winter Hill.

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

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Fair enough, but a track over ORH is so climatologically unfavorable that I will bet against it every time, and prevail in about 98% of those instances. 

 

All I am saying is that I think this has a greater likelihood of running the CT, or Hudson valley, than it does of flipping the Will the byrd as it races over Winter Hill.

 

Oh I'm not saying who's right or wrong....just that I could see it happening because it's almost like an area of low pressure moving along a front slowly moving east. There will no doubt be more CAD then the euro shows, but it is possible. FWIW I also think more SE MA.

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weatherwiz

weatherwiz

Posted
Posted

I know it's a wx board, but the variance right now is so difficult to figure out given the srn and nrn shortwaves. Since this low is almost a frontal wave, a track over ORH is very plausible. This isn't an area of low pressure moving in from the SW with a high to the north. In that case we can lock in a CC track. This case is a bit different in that we easily could see a low develop along the front as the euro shows.

 

I certainly don't think that can be ruled out at all...with the GFS there very well could be some sort of convective feedback at play in today's run.  Looking below you can see the initial wave at 84 HR still in the Gulf but by 96 HR some low pops up off the Carolina coast which appears to be associated with convection and I'm not sure if that really will be the main low.  

 

gfs_zps2931f38b.jpg

 

The primary low (at 84 HR) would actually probably ride up along the front given where it's located in position to the front.  

 

I'm not saying that this means a Euro-esq track but there are various solutions that are still in play at this juncture.  

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40/70 Benchmark

40/70 Benchmark

Posted
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My guess (which is not worth a lick this far out as well) is maybe near SE MA, but not because of CAD or something like that. Just a guess...it doesn't change the sensible wx outcome really here. Good luck to the picnic tables.

Ok.....that is fair enough.

 

I was incorrect in implicating any ageostropic phenomena, but I'm glad that we agree on a track.

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

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I know it's a wx board, but the variance right now is so difficult to figure out given the srn and nrn shortwaves. Since this low is almost a frontal wave, a track over ORH is very plausible. This isn't an area of low pressure moving in from the SW with a high to the north. In that case we can lock in a CC track. This case is a bit different in that we easily could see a low develop along the front as the euro shows.

 

 

Agreed...this can easily go up powderfreak's fanny or by over the BM...I'm starting to lean inland tho.

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40/70 Benchmark

40/70 Benchmark

Posted
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Yea, it was just semantics, Scott...we essentially agree.

 

Regarding how enthralling this is, or is not, with the lack of sensible weather impact, I guess that my perspective has changed a bit since I have been out of the loop for awhile....when you take a rather substantial break, sort of a yearning for any level or meteorological conjecture redevelops....regardless of how trivial an impact it has on sensible weather.

 

I guess the upshot is that if someone's (not you) dismay over a failed pre-thanksgiving snowfall event on the cp of sne prompts the formation of an innie, it maybe time for a breather.

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40/70 Benchmark

40/70 Benchmark

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Ageostrophic flow doesn't have to mean nrnly drain...it can be enough to turn or back winds more easterly ahead of a front. Ageostrophic flow is the term that describes the flow towards low pressure so if that causes winds to be more east instead of SE or S, then that is still ageo flow.

Thanks.

 

Helps to shake the rust.

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Baroclinic Zone

Baroclinic Zone

Posted
Posted

No you are right, there will be some.

Sure there will be but without any strong confluence to the N there is nothing preventing the southerly air from rushing in. Sure a track over my azz may happen but it's not the difference between rain and snow, its the difference between 40 and rain and 55 and rain. Woopee!! I'll take a warm rain over a cold rain. Tknx.

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