Potential Record Breaking Cold Sunday/Sunday Night---Late Nov Discussion

[N. OF PIKE]

Bob, I'm not sure what your referring to. But if your sure Powder Freak is gonna Rain, which was the post I was responding to, then you should be a top paid Met.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Dude cut the BS, they've forced me to post their way or I get banned. I have posted 10 different ways why I think the track will be either over SE mass or farther east and have ruled out snow . So Wtf is the problem?

I agree se MA is the most likely track....models will have it pegged near Boston, and it will verify near the cc canal, as some underlying ageostrophic mechanics will nudge it a hair further se on the cp, near the lp magnet that is the cc canal.

[IsentropicLift]

euro has a system nearby arond 12/3 that would be the next to track, I know  others have mentioned 12/4-12/5 timeframe.

Wants to show a "bowling ball" scenario which won't verify. The Euro is holding back the southern stream as usual. As we get closer and the Euro begins ejecting that southern stream wave we should be looking at our next threat.

[N. OF PIKE]

Scott it really hasn't . It's just discussion. You seem angry that people care to follow the first significant System in several months.. Don't let Rev shake you up.

 

Monday this thing could be modeled to  track from NYC to PSM,NH and if it snows across CNE you will post an "AWT".

[IsentropicLift]

Posting the JMA for coming relief only. It has three separate 1000mb lows lol

 

[Ginx snewx]

Here are the 12z GEFS clusters, first is 50% of members , 2nd is 20%, Cape track seems their prefernce

[moneypitmike]

The villages of 500 people need to know what the wx will do.

Lol. Are you poking fun of the fact that our 9-town regional high school had a graduating class of 73 people last year? Btw--I think kevins call is reasonable.

31.4/19

[40/70 Benchmark]

My point is why has this become an insane asylum of whether a low tracks over the Cape or ORH?

It's weather forum.

 

Regardless of that fact that it will have little impact on sensible wx here on the cp, it will be interesting to see which school of thought verifies.

[Damage In Tolland]

My point is why has this become an insane asylum of whether a low tracks over the Cape or ORH?

Because most of us don't want a warm rainstorm the day before Thanksgivg. 38 and rain is far better than 60/59 and warmth on a winter holiday

[powderfreak]

I'll tell everyone right now that the nuances of this current ECMWF run, esp. with regard to precise track, will not verify.

It's either going over se MA or NYS.

My money is on the former, through se MA.......close enough to ensure 97.5-100% rain for everyone that matters within the precip. field, yet close enough to maintain some level of interest for distant interior elevations that will undoubtedly ending up smoking cirrus in blue-ball land.

Agreed 100%, haha.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Scott it really hasn't . It's just discussion. You seem angry that people care to follow the first significant System in several months.. Don't let Rev shake you up.

 

Monday this thing could track from NYC to PSM,NH and if it snows across CNE you will post an "AWT".

I thought he was joking at first, but me thinks Bryce had him up all night now lol

[Ginx snewx]

lol

the op euro has the support of its ensembles so its hard to "toss" the solution as fear based.

Euro Ens are not out yet and please link me to that 0Z agreement, the Ens mean I saw went over the Cape

[40/70 Benchmark]

Here are the 12z GEFS clusters, first is 50% of members , 2nd is 20%, Cape track seems their prefernce

GEFS are my preference right now.

[CoastalWx]

It's weather forum.

 

Regardless of that fact that it will have little impact on sensible wx here on the cp, it will be interesting to see which school of thought verifies.

 

That's basically it,  the sensible wx is meaningless unless you get off on a 36F rain.

[Baroclinic Zone]

Bob, I'm not sure what your referring to. But if your sure Powder Freak is gonna Rain, which was the post I was responding to, then you should be a top paid Met.

PF knows his climo. I have't looked at his area in a day or so but from what I've seen out of the euro it's coming in stronger bringing in more warmth so I would not rule out a change to rain even up there. Beware these southern stream storms.

[moneypitmike]

I don't live in Dorchester and nobody cares about a restaurant at 4k.

Testy. Bryce not letting you sleep?

[CoastalWx]

I thought he was joking at first, but me thinks Bryce had him up all night now lol

 

I'm happy..he took his first step.

[Ginx snewx]

Who the fuk cares where it tracks?

MPM, Logan, PF maybe?

[Bostonseminole]

man it's going to be a long winter

[weathafella]

I'm happy..he took his first step.

Nice! Think it was tough keeping track of him before?....lol....

[powderfreak]

Huh? so the most likely scenario when a storm approaches is nothing happens? Really, we are not discussing daily weather but a juiced up GOM Miller A type storm coming up the coast, so you are saying the most likely scenario with those setups is nothing exciting happens? Wow

I'm saying that at this time range, how often do things work out like you want them too? There's a reason people are skeptical of being shown a personally exciting scenario at this time range. It's where the, "right where we want it now" phrase came from.

[40/70 Benchmark]

This seems like a classic cold season event in which the requisite blocking to pin this near 40/70 is absent, but yet so are the overwhelming synoptics necessary to drive this bodily into ORH points west.

What we are likely to see unfold is a rather uninspiring event passing near cc/se MA, offering up a cold rain for most, with some mood flakes interspersed on it's outer fringes.

[Ginx snewx]

PF knows his climo. I have't looked at his area in a day or so but from what I've seen out of the euro it's coming in stronger bringing in more warmth so I would not rule out a change to rain even up there. Beware these southern stream storms.

So where were the euro Ens again?

[Baroclinic Zone]

And there it is. Most of the ec ens members torch us now.

  

Euro Ens are not out yet and please link me to that 0Z agreement, the Ens mean I saw went over the Cape

Did you miss Brians post from this AM? I assume he has access to them somewhere, otherwise he would have not made the post.

[N. OF PIKE]

I can't wait till Euro Ens, ha ha

 

and man Ginxy , how bout them Squalls in New York state.

 

On a serious note I wonder if they make it into W MA this eve or tonite

[CoastalWx]

I know it's a wx board, but the variance right now is so difficult to figure out given the srn and nrn shortwaves. Since this low is almost a frontal wave, a track over ORH is very plausible. This isn't an area of low pressure moving in from the SW with a high to the north. In that case we can lock in a CC track. This case is a bit different in that we easily could see a low develop along the front as the euro shows.

[40/70 Benchmark]

That's basically it,  the sensible wx is meaningless unless you get off on a 36F rain.

Right, but I don't see the harm in discussing whether or not it we're in the upper 40's as it tracks near ORH, or in the upper 30's on a track near the bridge.

 

This was never likely to have us sledding off the excess of calories from our T-day gluttony lol

[weatherwiz]

What's more intriguing is how the pattern will unfold as we move into the first week of December.  The look at the Euro, and the GFS to some degree may have some promise with more in the way of ridging developing in the west with more of a trough in the east and a trough axis which could setup along the mid-Atlantic.  If the northern stream remains active the first week of December could be of interest for something...especially considering it may become quite cold across Canada.  

[40/70 Benchmark]

I'm happy..he took his first step.

Awesome.

[powderfreak]

PF knows his climo. I have't looked at his area in a day or so but from what I've seen out of the euro it's coming in stronger bringing in more warmth so I would not rule out a change to rain even up there. Beware these southern stream storms.

I'm getting a little worried about rain, but for whatever reason I can't shake this going east like the GFS. I'd still put cirrus as a higher chance than rain but can't really explain why, lol. It seems like this would have to be timed absolutely perfect to get a full phased Apps Runner.