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Potential Record Breaking Cold Sunday/Sunday Night---Late Nov Discussion

ORH_wxman

By ORH_wxman,
in New England

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weatherwiz

weatherwiz

Posted
Posted

It's going to be really difficult to really justify which type of track or which model at this stage will be closer to reality.  Until the models come into better agreement or we strong consensus within a model, a great deal will depend on the strength of the two key features as well as the speed of these two features.  Considering, however, the mid-level low cutting across the deep south is of cut-off decent, you would have to think that the model showing the slower timing/movement of the southern energy (it had been the Euro but not sure if that's still true with the 12z run as I can't see it yet) so perhaps the solutions being given by the Euro could hold a bit more merit.  given what has been posted regarding the track of the 12z Euro I would think a further inland track would vastly depend on how strongly negatively tilted the northern stream becomes and when it would begin to do so.

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40/70 Benchmark

40/70 Benchmark

Posted
Posted

I'll tell everyone right now that the nuances of this current ECMWF run, esp. with regard to precise track, will not verify.

 

It's either going over se MA or NYS.

 

My money is on the former, through se MA.......close enough to ensure 97.5-100% rain for everyone that matters within the precip. field, yet close enough to maintain some level of interest for distant interior elevations that will undoubtedly ending up smoking cirrus in blue-ball land.

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N. OF PIKE

N. OF PIKE

Posted
Posted

I don't see this thing going on such a SSW/NNE track thru CNE/NNE

 

I also don't think Euro has a great handle on things with all the SW's in the Polar Jet. Don't get me wrong, it very well may (but) I wouldn't be shock'd to see it have an entirely different solution tonite or tomm nite at least WRT to Rain to Montreal.

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dryslot

dryslot

Posted
Posted

I'll tell everyone right now that the nuances of this current ECMWF run, esp. with regard to precise track, will not verify.

 

It's either going over se MA or NYS.

 

My money is on the former, through se MA.......close enough to ensure 97.5-100% rain for everyone that matters within the precip. field, yet close enough to maintain some level of interest for distant interior elevations that will undoubtedly ending up smoking cirrus in blue-ball land.

 

Yes, LP is not going to track over the mtn peaks, Its going to be either east or west

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40/70 Benchmark

Posted
Posted

I don't see this thing going on such a SSW/NNE track thru CNE/NNE

 

I also don't think Euro has a great handle on things with all the SW's in the Polar Jet. Don't get me wrong, it very well may (but) I wouldn't be shock'd to see it have an entirely different solution tonite or tomm nite at least WRT to Rain to Montreal.

This run is probably entirely meteorologically sound, but this is when the regional climatology needs to be applied.

 

How often do we see LPs track over the 1000' ORH airport?

Unless the synopitcs of the system are so overwhelmingly potent, such as 3/93, we hardly ever see it.

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Ginx snewx

Ginx snewx

Posted
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lol, it's not about living. In weather, the most likely outcome is usually the least exciting. It is what it is.

Huh? so the most likely scenario when a storm approaches is nothing happens? Really, we are not discussing daily weather but a juiced up GOM Miller A type storm coming up the coast, so you are saying the most likely scenario with those setups is nothing exciting happens? Wow

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moneypitmike

moneypitmike

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Huh? so the most likely scenario when a storm approaches is nothing happens? Really, we are not discussing daily weather but a juiced up GOM Miller A type storm coming up the coast, so you are saying the most likely scenario with those setups is nothing exciting happens? Wow

I hate miller a's because they always screw me by being too far east.......hmmmmm

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40/70 Benchmark

40/70 Benchmark

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Yes, LP is not going to track over the mtn peaks, Its going to be either east or west

Honestly, as rusty as I am within this arena, what I take from this run is that the storm is going to track close enough to be a major factor for us.

This winter's inaugural significant snow event was never likely to come from the said system in question here on the cp because the margin for error is so slim; the n ORH hill, Monadnocks, and Berkshires should pay close attention.

Even lower elevations throughout cne.

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Damage In Tolland

Damage In Tolland

Posted
Posted

Kevin knows alot about meteo in sne, wish he'd show it more. Wrong and misinforming info act all the time

Dude cut the BS, they've forced me to post their way or I get banned. I have posted 10 different ways why I think the track will be either over SE mass or farther east and have ruled out snow . So Wtf is the problem?
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