Potential Record Breaking Cold Sunday/Sunday Night---Late Nov Discussion

[HoarfrostHubb]

Model mayhem continues...Still 4 days out so not surprising.  This will probably a sheared out, gloomy damp windstorm with 35F in the end

[Logan11]

Laughingstock model....  I thought I read somewhere they were finally going to address its deficiencies.

I'll be shocked of the GEFS aren't within 50 miles either side of HYA. The op run was weird looking with the evolution.

[snowman21]

do you happen to have access to record low max at either HYA or CHH? i have the record low/record highs but not record low maxes / record high mins

 

HYA (ASOS records began in 1998)

11/24... 32 (2000), 33 (2007), 43 (2011), 47 (2008), 48 (2005)

11/25... 39 (2005, 2000), 41 (2012, 2010), 46 (1998), 48 (2007), 49 (2003)

 

HYSM3 (co-op records began in 1893)

11/24... 30 (2000, 1956), 33 (1897), 35 (2008), 36 (1989), 38 (1939, 1914)

11/25... 28 (1897), 30 (1989), 32 (1903), 36 (1911), 37 (1988, 1941, 1893)

 

CHH (records began in 1972):

11/24... 31 (1989), 33 (1994), 35 (2008), 36 (2000), 40 (2007, 1988)

11/25... 31 (2000), 36 (2007, 1993), 40 (1981), 41 (1975), 42 (1978, 1976)

[Ginx snewx]

nice

[CoastalWx]

Laughingstock model.... I thought I read somewhere they were finally going to address its deficiencies.

Well feedback is a real thing that can happen, but I still the GFS falling victim to it at times.

[Ginx snewx]

850 mesoanalysis is just incredible for this time of year -24 degree air entering the upper midwest right now.

[CoastalWx]

Well the ensembles are east with a strung out kidney bean low.

[HoarfrostHubb]

850 mesoanalysis is just incredible for this time of year -24 degree air entering the upper midwest right now.

Assuming it gets modified a bit as it screams east, what would that translate to for surface temps for, say, Moosup?  10F?

[HoarfrostHubb]

 

 

BOX fears the reaper

ONE CONCERN IS THAT THE OBSERVED EARLY MORNING TEMPS ARE MUCH

COLDER THAN MODEL FORECASTS FOR US TONIGHT. BECAUSE OF THIS WE

TRENDED COLDER THAN GUIDANCE BY 3 DEGREES.

SECOND CONCERN WILL THE WIND. PRESSURE RISES BEHIND THE FRONT WILL

BE 4-6 DEGREES/6 HOURS...THIS WILL TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT.

THE COLD ADVECTION WILL ALSO FURTHER DESTABILIZE THE AIRMASS AND

DRAW MORE STRONG WINDS DOWN FROM ALOFT. GUST POTENTIAL WILL LINGER

AROUND 25-30 KNOTS. WIND CHILLS WILL BE IN THE SINGLE NUMBERS AND

MAY DIP BELOW ZERO NORTH OF THE MASS PIKE.

 

[HoarfrostHubb]

Further, from BOX

TEMPS AT 850 MB WILL BE -15C TO -18C...WHICH ONLY SUPPORTS MAX
SURFACE TEMPS 25-30F. NOTE THE LIST OF RECORD TEMPS IN THE CLIMATE
SECTION OF THIS DISCUSSION. MODEL FORECAST DEWPOINTS ARE AROUND
ZERO OR SINGLE NUMBERS BELOW ZERO. IF THIS VERIFIES...IT WILL BE
AS ALMOST AS LOW/DRY AS IT HAS FOR ANY NOVEMBER 24TH SINCE 1949.
 

[Ginx snewx]

925 is impressive

[weathafella]

Well the ensembles are east with a strung out kidney bean low.

I knew I shouldn't have had kidney beans in my lunch yesterday! Dammit!

I dreamt last night that pickles was up for the euro and dong pbp. I'm a sick man.

[Logan11]

The more interesting story here will be how cold we stay all day tomorrow. Tomorrow will be ridiculous here for later November..probably flirting with 20F at best with a lot of clouds from the LES to further dim things. Problem is though that the high temp may be attained at midnight and muck up the record books.

Assuming it gets modified a bit as it screams east, what would that translate to for surface temps for, say, Moosup?  10F?

[HoarfrostHubb]

The more interesting story here will be how cold we stay all day tomorrow. Tomorrow will be ridiculous here for later November..probably flirting with 20F at best with a lot of clouds from the LES to further dim things. Problem is though that the high temp may be attained at midnight and muck up the record books.

Yeah, I hate cheap midnight highs, but what are ya gonna do?  A few stations might fall, though

[eduggs]

Well feedback is a real thing that can happen, but I still the GFS falling victim to it at times.

I agree that it does.  But I don't think the OTS solution is specifically the result of feedback.  The mid and upper levels on the 12z GFS, and even the 06z just look really different than the CMC, NAM, and Nogaps.  Euro is somewhere in between.  All of the solutions are still within the ensemble spread.

[Tropopause_Fold]

HYA (ASOS records began in 1998)

11/24... 32 (2000), 33 (2007), 43 (2011), 47 (2008), 48 (2005)

11/25... 39 (2005, 2000), 41 (2012, 2010), 46 (1998), 48 (2007), 49 (2003)

 

HYSM3 (co-op records began in 1893)

11/24... 30 (2000, 1956), 33 (1897), 35 (2008), 36 (1989), 38 (1939, 1914)

11/25... 28 (1897), 30 (1989), 32 (1903), 36 (1911), 37 (1988, 1941, 1893)

 

CHH (records began in 1972):

11/24... 31 (1989), 33 (1994), 35 (2008), 36 (2000), 40 (2007, 1988)

11/25... 31 (2000), 36 (2007, 1993), 40 (1981), 41 (1975), 42 (1978, 1976)

cool thank you

[TalcottWx]

I thought we had 60 knot winds and a hww coming didn't someone in CT say that

[N. OF PIKE]

Did he look like this?

Lol , nobody really knew i was back in mass at that point, so some friends and extended family thought it was a photoshop from s fl beaches lol. I'll send a new one from vermont if we get crush'd.

[CoastalWx]

I agree that it does. But I don't think the OTS solution is specifically the result of feedback. The mid and upper levels on the 12z GFS, and even the 06z just look really different than the CMC, NAM, and Nogaps. Euro is somewhere in between. All of the solutions are still within the ensemble spread.

I agree. The nrn stream is much weaker. The GFS looked a little suspicious, but it's possible the low in this case is driven by diabatic heating and forced NE since upper level forcing from this is weak and far removed.

[Baroclinic Zone]

I agree. The nrn stream is much weaker. The GFS looked a little suspicious, but it's possible the low in this case is driven by diabatic heating and forced NE since upper level forcing from this is weak and far removed.

even the slp location on the ggem looked suspicious on the southern stream. looked too far n, hence the flooding warmth, too much variability with the gfs and ggem right now to take any credence in their solution. euro has been pretty consistent for the last day or so.

[jamesnichols1989]

The GFS looked like it latched onto the secondary clipper disturbance moving through the Plains at around hour 120.  NAM latches onto the first clipper system/northern stream disturbance, while the GFS latches onto a more secondary disturbance.  I think the NAM is more probable than the GFS.

[jamesnichols1989]

The NAM is worse in my opinion in terms of degree of impact, given that I will be traveling to Buffalo, NY on Wednesday and it starts snowing in Buffalo, NY around Wednesday morning.

[Ginx snewx]

Save a horse ride the Euro

[Tropopause_Fold]

funny how much further south everything digs the NS 5h energy as compared to the GFS. not even close.

[weathafella]

Even at 36 hours there are differences. I don't think euro will resemble gfs today.

[Ginx snewx]

Even at 36 hours there are differences. I don't think euro will resemble gfs today.

PBP is a great time of year

[weathafella]

Actually relatively minor differences at 60 hours. Euro a bit slower?

[moneypitmike]

Temp dropping at the pit. Down to 32.3/20. Had weenie flakes there 45 minutes ago when I came here to noho to get snows for my wife's car. $578 ftl.

[weathafella]

Don't think this is going ots.

[weathafella]

Euro digging hard at 72.....may be quite the storm.