Potential Record Breaking Cold Sunday/Sunday Night---Late Nov Discussion

[Tropopause_Fold]

If you buy that then ORH gusts to 60.. will HWW go up?

60 is pushing it...but i think a lot of 45 to 50 around the area. going to be pretty ugly out there. 

[moneypitmike]

60 is pushing it...but i think a lot of 45 to 50 around the area. going to be pretty ugly out there. 

 

I'm not sure if he was saying 60 for ORH.  I think he might have been doubting 50 at BDL.  But we'll let him clarify--no sense in me trying to translate.

[CoastalWx]

LOL you guys are funny. I'll take my 35 rain over 50. That's going to really preserve the snowpack.

[Logan11]

Some of the lake stuff might make it all the way into Mass and CT tomorrow...  The NWS offices in Upstate have that really carrying right into the Catskills. I may be a little too far north.

[moneypitmike]

Some of the lake stuff might make it all the way into Mass and CT tomorrow...  The NWS offices in Upstate have that really carrying right into the Catskills. I may be a little too far north.

 

Expect I'm too far north, too.

 

Is anyone having issues this morning with weatherlink and wunderground reporting from your stations?  Mines really going intermittently today for some reason.

 

34.0/21, gusted to 26mph

[CoastalWx]

Hopefully a nice Cstl Wednesday if it were to rain. Euro op still may be too far west much to Kevin's dismay, but we can all pull for him.

[Bostonseminole]

gfs still has 2 lows..@93

[Logan11]

Yeah when I logged on wundeground it had forgot my location which is this (more or less)

 

http://www.wunderground.com/cgi-bin/findweather/getForecast?query=zmw:12053.1.99999

 

But it worked when I put in the zio.

 

Temps going nowhere fast here..  30.6 and a few minute flurries at times.

Expect I'm too far north, too.

 

Is anyone having issues this morning with weatherlink and wunderground reporting from your stations?  Mines really going intermittently today for some reason.

 

34.0/21, gusted to 26mph

[Bostonseminole]

that 2nd low really lagging behind on this run..not sure if that will mean much later..

[Bostonseminole]

down to 41.2 here..

[CoastalWx]

GFS with another scenario. Cold high building in as convection tries to force the first low scooting NE.

[Bostonseminole]

lol MS snowstorm at @99hrs

[TalcottWx]

Just caught up and read several pages back to yesterday morning.

What an absolute unreadable disaster for Kevin in the past 24hrs.

[CoastalWx]

That low depiction still looks might strange to me, but that helps bring colder air south. We will see what second low does.

[CoastalWx]

Much weaker nrn stream. LOL OTS perhaps.

[Bostonseminole]

Much weaker nrn stream. LOL OTS perhaps.

 

 

yeah OTS, cold and dry our favorite .. not even much rain out of it

[CoastalWx]

yeah OTS, cold and dry our favorite .. not even much rain out of it

Maybe I'll be wrong, but I'm gonna call BS on this.

[Damage In Tolland]

Hopefully a nice Cstl Wednesday if it were to rain. Euro op still may be too far west much to Kevin's dismay, but we can all pull for him.

I still say east and bomb is more likely than cutting over HFD . I don't see how this pattern supports a cutter over Alb

[Bostonseminole]

I still say east and bomb is more likely than cutting over HFD . I don't see how this pattern supports a cutter over Alb

 

gfs certainly not buying into a cutter.

[weathafella]

All the models exhibiting their biases. CMC and GFS certainly.

[wxeyeNH]

I love trends and if this is going to be a cutter I am surprised the 12Z GFS didn't start trending that way. Still the OTS solution which keeps up the uncertainty for sure.

[Clinch Leatherwood]

Much weaker nrn stream. LOL OTS perhaps.

We are about at the window where most threats have been vanishing. Wouldn't surprise me at all to see another disjointed system.

[Ginx snewx]

Hmmm - I don't know about that one.

It will be cold and it will break records for 11/24 but I hardly would describe a one day cold shot as "a special day in the annals of Nov Wx history"

Look at the record low maxes for the Hartford area (anything before 1954 was downtown HFD)

11/22 27 in 1978 29 in 2008 31 in 1972 11/23 27 in 1989 32 in 1978 32 in 1956 11/24 31 in 1936 32 in 1971 32 in 1938 11/25 25 in 1938 27 in 1917 32 in 2005+ 11/26 23 in 1938 26 in 1928 28 in 1974+ 11/27 24 in 1978 25 in 1949 28 in 1936+

so a record breaking cold day with 50 mph winds is not special, ok

[ORH_wxman]

MET numbers are down to 24F for a high at ORH tomorrow...that is 2 clear of record low max for the date. It still has a low of 10F which is just one above the record low the following morning. The 2m temps never get above 22F during the day but are around 24-25F at midnight, so midnight could very well still be the high temp. 850mb temps are still between -19C and -20C...which is pretty incredible for November. GFS has trended more toward that with the -18C isotherm down tot he pike, which is a little more bullish than previous.

[powderfreak]

I still say east and bomb is more likely than cutting over HFD . I don't see how this pattern supports a cutter over Alb

Cutting over ALB is different than HFD.

How is east and bomb your more likely option...it seems the stronger lows are west, weaker is east.

Rollo is right though, this is about the time these bigger QPF events have fallen apart...next 24 hours will be interesting.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

We are about at the window where most threats have been vanishing. Wouldn't surprise me at all to see another disjointed system.

Excellent point, but I would really like too see something this go around to potentially set the stage for some more wintry events over the next couple of weeks

[ORH_wxman]

GGEM is still a rainer all the way into Montreal

[moneypitmike]

yeah OTS, cold and dry our favorite .. not even much rain out of it

 

Dry begets dry.

 

34.8/20

[weathafella]

Flag alert: Nogaps is a hit. The most progressive model showing a coastal suggests to me that this will be her or west of the coastline when it passes our latitude.

[CoastalWx]

Flag alert: Nogaps is a hit.

I'll be shocked of the GEFS aren't within 50 miles either side of HYA. The op run was weird looking with the evolution.