Potential Record Breaking Cold Sunday/Sunday Night---Late Nov Discussion

[powderfreak]

Man... the 12z NAM at the end of its run is about to become a full-fledged cutter.  This would go right up the Apps.  Thankfully its the NAM at 84, lol.

 

I mean that's a rainstorm to Buffalo.

 

[IsentropicLift]

Man... the 12z NAM at the end of its run is about to become a full-fledged cutter. This would go right up the Apps. Thankfully its the NAM at 84, lol.

I mean that's a rainstorm to Buffalo.

The NAM is always too amplified in the end of its range. It would have been worrisome to see it look like the GFS.

[CT Rain]

31 AT BDL but it's sort of a bootleg record. The record for 11/23 is 27 and 11/25 is 25. 

[powderfreak]

The NAM is always too amplified in the end of its range. It would have been worrisome to see it look like the GFS.

 

No it wouldn't.  I would gladly take cold/dry over a rainstorm before the Thanksgiving holiday.  But alas, I don't control the weather.

[IsentropicLift]

No it wouldn't. I would gladly take cold/dry over a rainstorm before the Thanksgiving holiday. But alas, I don't control the weather.

This snow or nothing is ridiculous. We need the rain desperately.

[Ginx snewx]

Thanks yeah just saw it on BOX

http://threadex.rcc-acis.org/

[moneypitmike]

hopefully this verifies for Wednesday just to make us irate. ggem would probably be even warmer. 

 

tolland_disaster.jpg

 

What model's that from?  I get a nice 35* rain from that one.

33.1 and windy currently. Going out to wash the truck in full winter gear.

 

 

No winter gear needed for the car wash.  Enjoyed the DD coffee going through it this morning.  No fuss, no muss.

 

We were discussing that last night. Where do those moths go when we are 15F like the other morning?

 

They hibernate/become dormant in nooks and crannies/leaves/etc.

The NAM is always too amplified in the end of its range. It would have been worrisome to see it look like the GFS.

 

Can we add this to the "most liked/hated winter phrases"? 

 

33.4/23

[Tropopause_Fold]

31 AT BDL but it's sort of a bootleg record. The record for 11/23 is 27 and 11/25 is 25. 

gfs soundings say 50 mph at BDL tomorrow afternoon / evening. you buying or selling? 

[Logan11]

The NAM no respect to the southern disturbance...putting it all in the amplifying northern stream. I would doubt that solution.

[Tropopause_Fold]

MPM - the euro. 

[weathafella]

Here comes winter! In my years I don't recall a deep stab of winter prior to December that produced a snowstorm.

We've had a few...heck I remember skating on ponds thanksgiving weekend in the late 50s/early 60s one year. But decent snow this early almost always comes via different mechanism.

[Ginx snewx]

But a inland runner can't happen in the fast flow. Only focus on the what-ifs rather than what is becoming reality.

Highly anomalous cold shot for sure. Just does not looks like the bottom drops out for me unless the winds subside.

its CAA winds will not matter, would like to see the Euro Ens LL map for the same time Phil posted

[Ginx snewx]

gfs soundings say 50 mph at BDL tomorrow afternoon / evening. you buying or selling? 

Yea tomorrow will be a special day in the annals of Nov weather history

[Logan11]

Well at age 6 I didn't grasp the mechanism, but we had 20" on Thanksgiving 1971 in Upstate NY. That was a Nor'easter.

Here comes winter! In my years I don't recall a deep stab of winter prior to December that produced a snowstorm.


We've had a few...heck I remember skating on ponds thanksgiving weekend in the late 50s/early 60s one year. But decent snow this early almost always comes via different mechanism.

[Tropopause_Fold]

I did as well, well into the 50s in fact, but most places in CT, MA, and RI did not.

do you happen to have access to record low max at either HYA or CHH? i have the record low/record highs but not record low maxes / record high mins

[CT Rain]

gfs soundings say 50 mph at BDL tomorrow afternoon / evening. you buying or selling? 

 

GFS has been on that train for a while now. I did notice the NAM really bumped up winds in the overnight runs.

 

I'll take the under on 50 but barely.

[moneypitmike]

MPM - the euro. 

 

Thanks.  I'll take my 35* rain over the 50* rain.

[moneypitmike]

GFS has been on that train for a while now. I did notice the NAM really bumped up winds in the overnight runs.

 

I'll take the under on 50 but barely.

 

Sounds like solid advisory.

 

BTW--did you get your station hooked up?  Which one is yours?

 

Winds whistling loudly.

 

33.8/23

[Tropopause_Fold]

GFS has been on that train for a while now. I did notice the NAM really bumped up winds in the overnight runs.

 

I'll take the under on 50 but barely.

that'll feel pretty nice by about 5pm tomorrow...probably what, like 22F and gusting to 40 mph.  

[CT Rain]

Yea tomorrow will be a special day in the annals of Nov weather history

 

Hmmm - I don't know about that one.

 

It will be cold and it will break records for 11/24 but I hardly would describe a one day cold shot as "a special day in the annals of Nov Wx history" 

 

Look at the record low maxes for the Hartford area (anything before 1954 was downtown HFD)

 

11/22 27 in 1978 29 in 2008 31 in 1972 11/23 27 in 1989 32 in 1978 32 in 1956 11/24 31 in 1936 32 in 1971 32 in 1938 11/25 25 in 1938 27 in 1917 32 in 2005+ 11/26 23 in 1938 26 in 1928 28 in 1974+ 11/27 24 in 1978 25 in 1949 28 in 1936+

[CT Rain]

that'll feel pretty nice by about 5pm tomorrow...probably what, like 22F and gusting to 40 mph.

 

Yup looks like it. NAM 2m temp at 18z is 24F with a sustained wind between 25 and 30 mph. 

[Tropopause_Fold]

Yup looks like it. NAM 2m temp at 18z is 24F with a sustained wind between 25 and 30 mph. 

bring those SSTs down. 

[Damage In Tolland]

gfs soundings say 50 mph at BDL tomorrow afternoon / evening. you buying or selling?

If you buy that then ORH gusts to 60.. will HWW go up?

[weathafella]

Well at age 6 I didn't grasp the mechanism, but we had 20" on Thanksgiving 1971 in Upstate NY. That was a Nor'easter.

Here comes winter! In my years I don't recall a deep stab of winter prior to December that produced a snowstorm.

We've had a few...heck I remember skating on ponds thanksgiving weekend in the late 50s/early 60s one year. But decent snow this early almost always comes via different mechanism.

Identical to now. Sne rained. You make my point Rick.

[moneypitmike]

Yup looks like it. NAM 2m temp at 18z is 24F with a sustained wind between 25 and 30 mph. 

 

Would be fun if some could stay in the teens.  I don't think I'll pull that off--current p/c is for 22, zfp is 'lower 20's'.  One never knows.....Pete won't crack the teens. 

[HoarfrostHubb]

Thanks. I'll take my 35* rain over the 50* rain.

More wintery appeal

[CT Rain]

If you buy that then ORH gusts to 60.. will HWW go up?

 

You've got some weird meteorological logic. 

[moneypitmike]

If you buy that then ORH gusts to 60.. will HWW go up?

 

I guess advisory.

 

My wind readings always under perform due to being only 8'.  I'll be recording high 20's and others wil be reporting 40+.  Maybe I'll report my wind speeds in decibels and pitch.  Steady whistle the last half hour.

 

Temps struggling so far with dp continuing to drop.

 

33.5/21, top gust sill sitting at 25mph.

[Bostonseminole]

42.4 now, should be interesting to see how temperatures drop during the net 24hrs.

[Damage In Tolland]

You've got some weird meteorological logic.

If a sea level pit in the valley is gusting to 50 with full mixing, you add on at lest 10 mph for hilltop like ORH