Potential Record Breaking Cold Sunday/Sunday Night---Late Nov Discussion

[H2Otown_WX]

Dec 5th looks like it could be another period of interest, Over the years we have had some decent storms on that date

12-5-02? 12-5-09? (Although I recall that being a failure here).

[jamesnichols1989]

Looks like as of right now the coastline gets screwed either way as lack of strong cold air source puts our snow wishes in the damper.

[mfastx]

Ok what time are we talking here for the latest GFS model?  I am flying out of BOS Wednesday early afternoon.  Should I be concerned?

[joey2002]

lol 00z Euro crushes the interior... 5 more days to go.

 

pic.twitter.com/IYOFmTBfTq

[CoastalWx]

lol 00z Euro crushes the interior... 5 more days to go.

pic.twitter.com/IYOFmTBfTq

Those are weenie maps because they seem to want to drive snow when it can't snow, but it OT cooler. Ensembles looked similar. 00z GEFS were even better looking.

[CoastalWx]

The GFS suite continues with a more amplifies and phase look and really floods aloft with warmer air. Now the euro is a little more strung out and as a result does not allow warmer air to

wrap back in aloft.

[dendrite]

That would be a ridiculously cold Thanksgiving here with fresh warning criteria snow OTG.

[moneypitmike]

and concern shifts per qpf to p-type just like that. 

 

Like Will said, we're sitll outside the range of relying on ops.  I'll weenie out when appropriate, but won't begin to get to vested in it before 12z run on sunday.  Looks great for upslope though for PF and the ski areas.

[Damage In Tolland]

Man the GFS would be massive for us..Winds over 60mph..rain changing over to pounding snows from West to east. Euro weaker version of that..but would even change to snow to the coast

 

The later we see this bomb out to our SE the better

[dendrite]

The GFS suite continues with a more amplifies and phase look and really floods aloft with warmer air. Now the euro is a little more strung out and as a result does not allow warmer air to

wrap back in aloft.

6z GFS op is a wallop here too...too bad it's still in d5-6 territory.

[moneypitmike]

6z GFS op is a wallop here too...too bad it's still in d5-6 territory.

 

LOL--oh to be in KIZG/Sunday River for that.

 

Travel day fail for many in the northeast.  Lots of gnashing of teeth with respect to p-type for most people on the board.

[Damage In Tolland]

The Mighty Maue is on board FTW

 

 

Ryan Maue ‏@RyanMaue4h

But even w/weaker low -- New England substantial snowfall -- all that moisture on backside gonna come down froze pic.twitter.com/IYOFmTBfTq

 

[Damage In Tolland]

The other thing to note is it looks like Friday morning(Black Friday ) is colder than Sunday. If we have snowcover many places could see lows in the single digits. Man what a pattern

[moneypitmike]

November being November.....??

 

Tonight: Mostly cloudy. Lows in the upper 20s. West winds 10 to 15 mph.

Saturday: Sunny. Cold with highs in the mid 30s. West winds 10 to 15 mph with gusts up to 25 mph.

Saturday Night: Mostly cloudy. Colder with lows around 18. Northwest winds 15 to 20 mph with gusts up to 30 mph.

Sunday: Mostly sunny and windy. Colder with highs in the lower 20s. Northwest winds 20 to 30 mph. Gusts up to 40 mph in the afternoon.

Sunday Night: Mostly clear and blustery. Cold with lows around 10 above.

Monday: Mostly sunny. Cold with highs in the upper 20s.

Monday Night And Tuesday: Mostly cloudy. Cold. Lows in the lower 20s. Highs in the lower 30s.

Tuesday Night And Wednesday: Mostly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of snow showers. Cold. Lows in the upper 20s. Highs in the mid 30s.

Wednesday Night: Mostly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of snow showers. Colder with lows 15 to 20.

Thanksgiving Day: Mostly sunny. Cold with highs in the mid 20s.

[dendrite]

Those wxbell maps are always pure weenieism. They are way too generous near the 850 0C imo

[moneypitmike]

 

The Mighty Maue is on board FTW

 

 

Ryan Maue ‏@RyanMaue4h

But even w/weaker low -- New England substantial snowfall -- all that moisture on backside gonna come down froze pic.twitter.com/IYOFmTBfTq

 

 

 

Still need to contend with that front side.  6 days out.......

 

[donsutherland1]

Those wxbell maps are always pure weenieism. They are way too generous near the 850 0C imo

Those maps assume 10:1 ratios in all areas where it snows.

[moneypitmike]

THESE STRONG NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL AID IN SUBSTANTIAL COLD AIR ADVECTION RESULTING IN UNSEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES /NEARLY 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL/ ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON SUNDAY.

 

Per BOX AFD.  So neat to read that.

[CoastalWx]

The Mighty Maue is on board FTW

Ryan Maue ‏@RyanMaue4h

But even w/weaker low -- New England substantial snowfall -- all that moisture on backside gonna come down froze pic.twitter.com/IYOFmTBfTq[size=.

[/size]

See my earlier post on that.

[weathafella]

The big take home message to me is the fact that the pattern of lack of qpf for the past few months appears per the guidance to be on the verge of breaking. Good news!

[CoastalWx]

The big take home message to me is the fact that the pattern of lack of qpf for the past few months appears per the guidance to be on the verge of breaking. Good news!

AWT.

[CoastalWx]

You really need another 24 even 48 hrs to entertain details. Models are a little better in agreement, but there is a ton of time left for shifts. Keep that in mind.

[CoastalWx]

Euro is good for Berks and up to NNE verbatim.

[Damage In Tolland]

Euro is good for Berks and up to NNE verbatim.

It flip[s even you over to snow

[Bostonseminole]

The other thing to note is it looks like Friday morning(Black Friday ) is colder than Sunday. If we have snowcover many places could see lows in the single digits. Man what a pattern

all those early morning shoppers will be frozen!

[Bostonseminole]

The big take home message to me is the fact that the pattern of lack of qpf for the past few months appears per the guidance to be on the verge of breaking. Good news!

yes all the worry, hopefully I can sneak in a 1-2" out of this.

[Modfan]

I assume the precip we are talking about is the Sunday time frame, not T-day, right?  Wonder if we see a flash freeze on Sunday?

[Bostonseminole]

I assume the precip we are talking about is the Sunday time frame, not T-day, right? Wonder if we see a flash freeze on Sunday?

. T-day, check models on NCEP day, I think Sunday is just flurries.

[It's Always Sunny]

. T-day, check models on NCEP day, I think Sunday is just flurries.

We may not even get flurries. Looks like it may be more of a NNE type of deal.

[CoastalWx]

It flip[s even you over to snow

Maybe briefly, but just stating where it's mostly

Snow. It doesn't meant anything with this pattern and bing 5+ days out. It's too bad it wasn't later in the season given some of these runs. The system ahead of it gives WAA especially aloft which complicates the picture.