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Potential Record Breaking Cold Sunday/Sunday Night---Late Nov Discussion

ORH_wxman

By ORH_wxman,
in New England

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Ginx snewx

Ginx snewx

Posted
Posted

I don't think this pattern supports an ice storm at all. Need some downstream confluence.

Well just showing what the 18 Z GFS prints out, the meteograms from Dave to the Berks are pretty icy, that's new fresh cold replacing the washed out on SW winds old cold, it actually shows as the low bombs out a very good straight out of the North LL drain. Just the model output is all I am relaying.
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CT Rain

CT Rain

Posted
Posted

Well just showing what the 18 Z GFS prints out, the meteograms from Dave to the Berks are pretty icy, that's new fresh cold replacing the washed out on SW winds old cold, it actually shows as the low bombs out a very good straight out of the North LL drain. Just the model output is all I am relaying.

 

I could buy a cold rain but for ice you really need a cold/dry high from confluence up north to provide the drain. The northerly ageostrophic flow as the low deepens will definitely drag down some cooler air but the source region isn't cold/dry enough for ice. 

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OceanStWx

OceanStWx

Posted
Posted

I could buy a cold rain but for ice you really need a cold/dry high from confluence up north to provide the drain. The northerly ageostrophic flow as the low deepens will definitely drag down some cooler air but the source region isn't cold/dry enough for ice. 

 

I mean NWP is more often than not going to be too bullish on ice. They really won't handle the diabatic warming very well. And as you say, without a cold high to the north you'll have the low levels dominated by that warming before too long.

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted

I could buy a cold rain but for ice you really need a cold/dry high from confluence up north to provide the drain. The northerly ageostrophic flow as the low deepens will definitely drag down some cooler air but the source region isn't cold/dry enough for ice. 

 

Fwiw, this "could" be a unique sort of arrangement.  Just playing devil's advocate so bear with me ... 

 

The translation of events leading up to, are very fast along and N of 40N, with the progressive nature to the flow.  Such that, though the gradient turns around, it really doesn't have time to modify the 1300 m dz.  Then, prior to the low passing our lat/lon, the wind is around to the N or NNe or NE in the interior, and that creates a mock ageo scenario. Hygroscopic cooling, combined with frontal drape that's cleared the area, combined with GFS resolution at this time range might be resolving favorably for ice. 

 

Granted, the idealized model for icing typically is not associated with coastals, but again, it's the speed of transition. 

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moneypitmike

moneypitmike

Posted
Posted

Probalby old news to all, but BOX still shrugging as to be expected wrt the coastal..

 

IN FACT MODELS THIS FAR OUT DO STRUGGLE WITH AN ERROR CONE OF OVER SEVERAL HUNDREDS MILES. SO THERE IS A GOOD PROBABILITY THAT THIS FORECAST WILL CHANGE...THEREFORE WILL USE A BLEND OF THE SOLUTIONS AS WELL AS THE PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR THIS PORTION OF THE LONG TERM

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OceanStWx

OceanStWx

Posted
Posted

Also keeping an eye on some sneaky front end pre for at least mood snow prior to the rainout The highly anomalous 501 5h over my head Sunday with full sun and full mixing CAA has me also wondering if some unmodeled squalls pop up. -43 at 5H Nov 24th, seriously??

 

Not really WINDEX per se, but definitely like the look tomorrow night too as the CAA kicks in. Low levels really start to go unstable on the leading edge.

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted

The big L right over the heaviest QPF? Not a fan of that. Convective problems on this run.

 

 

Yup, another smoking gun.  Have to be vigilant of this when you have stronger wave's slicing through the deep S, that sometimes the model(s) have trouble dealing with the big gulp of latent heat out of the gulf.  It blows off all kinds of insane UVM and then says, well, guess there's a low there.    Silly speak but we get the point. 

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