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Potential Record Breaking Cold Sunday/Sunday Night---Late Nov Discussion

ORH_wxman

By ORH_wxman,
in New England

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weatherwiz

weatherwiz

Posted
Posted

Actually the 12z euro and 18z gfs have similar temps at 850 until Wednesday evening when the GFS begins to blow up the low and wrap warmer air back inland.

 

Thanks. 

 

It sucks there is really nothing to prevent the mid levels and low levels above 900mb from torching...the flow just screams from the south..especially on the GFS where it tracks the 850 low pretty much over Long Island through Eastern CT then RI and into SE MA.  

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dendrite

dendrite

Posted
Posted

Any sig ZR signal in there for Weds?

Tough to do without a low level ageo drain. I think Will mentioned it earlier, but i agree, that there may be a transition zone in there...especially for the interior that typically does well with in-situ CAD. Without the constant resupply of colder/drier low level air though those spots will quickly latently warm up to 32-34F once the ptype transitions from frozen to freezing.

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N. OF PIKE

N. OF PIKE

Posted
Posted

Based on pretty unanimous Ens mean agreement I don’t think the wiff scenario has any legs.

I wonder what mountain resorts may take the cake. Killington to Wildcat corridor shall be interesting, someone may lay down a nice base

Wildcat is sometimes far enough north and with a 2k base to separate it from other nh resorts in borderline situ's.

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dendrite

dendrite

Posted
Posted

Thanks Brian

There's no really good sfc high/confluence to our north. We flush out a lot of the arctic cold we get this weekend. There will still be some low level northerly flow over the interior with the system (especially if we get that low deepening strongly south of NE and ramp up the isallobaric component), but I don't think it's enough for any prolonged icing.

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CT Rain

CT Rain

Posted
Posted

Based on pretty unanimous Ens mean agreement I don’t think the wiff scenario has any legs.

 

I agree with that - I think a whiff is very unlikely. 

I also think a "plowable" snow is very unlikely for most in SNE outside of the Berkshires. Hate to waste all this cold but we'll probably have to wait til the first week in Dec for a threat. 

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moneypitmike

moneypitmike

Posted
Posted

Today turned out great.  When I left Hartford around 1:07 it was cloudy but brightening skies and when I got off the bus in front of my house the sun was partially out and it wasn't cold.  Even this morning wasn't that cold when I went to school and that was around 7:22

 

Are you sure it wasn't around 7:24 that you wnet to school?  :)

 

I guess saying it's a tough setup for snow is just too much to handle.

 

I've come to terms with this.  I'm' ready for the cool breeze on Sunday though.

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weatherwiz

weatherwiz

Posted
Posted

I"m just not looking forward to the cold on Sunday...AT ALL...well the wind specifically.  Would be awesome to get some record lows though...don't see that too often anymore

 

Mike,  I left my house to go outside at 7:22 AM.  Actually was 5:00 sooner than I expected but I did get up 5:00 earlier than I planned too.

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Ginx snewx

Ginx snewx

Posted
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Geez finally got a good luck at GFS low level cold air, this is so very close to a deep nterior ice storm. I wondered what the LL would look like with that Ageo flow and all that cold air lurking to the North. I am pretty impressed,there is some front end snow here too. http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?text=Korh

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HoarfrostHubb

HoarfrostHubb

Posted
Posted

Geez finally got a good luck at GFS low level cold air, this is so very close to a deep nterior ice storm. I wondered what the LL would look like with that Ageo flow and all that cold air lurking to the North. I am pretty impressed,there is some front end snow here too. http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?text=Korh

See Brian's posts above

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moneypitmike

moneypitmike

Posted
Posted

I"m just not looking forward to the cold on Sunday...AT ALL...well the wind specifically.  Would be awesome to get some record lows though...don't see that too often anymore

 

Mike,  I left my house to go outside at 7:22 AM.  Actually was 5:00 sooner than I expected but I did get up 5:00 earlier than I planned too.

 

LOL

 

I think the idea of a juicy system with >0.5" QPF is growing considerably even at this stage.

 

Absolutely.  If we get some flakes mixed in, all the better.

 

OT--just watched Grown Ups 2 iwth my daughter.  Should have done my research.  Big mistake..  Whoops.  Hard for dad not to laugh, though.

 

40.7/40

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CT Rain

CT Rain

Posted
Posted

Geez finally got a good luck at GFS low level cold air, this is so very close to a deep nterior ice storm. I wondered what the LL would look like with that Ageo flow and all that cold air lurking to the North. I am pretty impressed,there is some front end snow here too. http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?text=Korh

 

I don't think this pattern supports an ice storm at all. Need some downstream confluence. 

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