Potential Record Breaking Cold Sunday/Sunday Night---Late Nov Discussion

[Typhoon Tip]

Interesting, haha.  Didn't notice that but didn't analyze it either.  It would definitely bring that band of snow further SE than the GFS/ECM have right now.  Its always a good idea though to go with the DGEX over the GFS/ECM.

 

 

At this time range ... when snow is on the line?  You bet ur azz

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

For you and I regarding plowable snow....probably. I suppose stranger things have happened. There should be ZERO angst from people if it doesn't snow. It's late November.

I'm in the same boat, well get ours soon enough.

[weatherwiz]

For you and I regarding plowable snow....probably. I suppose stranger things have happened.  There should be ZERO angst from people if it doesn't snow. It's late November.

 

Regardless of the outcome everyone should be happy I think.  It appears that the southern stream is finally starting to become more active (although we can still perform well without that) so we may have more coastal threats in the upcoming future and if we can get more cutoff lows working into the SE US and traversing the southern tier of the country that is something that could bode well in our future.  If we could lock up this pattern and hold it through December, I think we'd all be happy 

[Bostonseminole]

For you and I regarding plowable snow....probably. I suppose stranger things have happened.  There should be ZERO angst from people if it doesn't snow. It's late November.

 

oh, this would be a bonus for sure, just nice if it would happen, we should be able to get exicted about it.

[MarkO]

Narrow band, but the potential for white for the cabin looks favorable. Sucks I'll be watching it from a webcam in RI.

[powderfreak]

Saying PF gets snow is akin to saying Peyton Manning throws for a TD this week. Prolly a lock no matter what the final outcome. lol.

 

  Right now the range of options goes from so warm that its a rain/snow mix, to partly sunny.  I would lean more towards this slipping eastward over westward, so variably cloudy up here looks like a good forecast, lol.  You probably are in just as good a spot in NW MA, especially if it tickles east over the next few days.

 

It would be hilarious if this ends up just exiting the coast with little to no fanfare.  That's still a very viable option.

[weathafella]

This is about the time of year when snow coveting at the expense of others begins.  Soon you'll see statements directed at NNE from SNE or from coastal SNE to inland folks...YOU HAD YOURS, THIS ONE'S MINE..as if someone deserves it more.  Believe me, I'm in there with you but detaching shows the absurdity of it all.

[CoastalWx]

This is about the time of year when snow coveting at the expense of others begins.  Soon you'll see statements directed at NNE from SNE or from coastal SNE to inland folks...YOU HAD YOURS, THIS ONE'S MINE..as if someone deserves it more.  Believe me, I'm in there with you but detaching shows the absurdity of it all.

 

I really hate when it comes down to that, but we see that every year. It becomes dumbed down to a 5 yr old argument at recess. Climo is climo. NNE avgs more than SNE, interior more than coastal. Sometimes things happen where the reverse occurs for a period of time. It's ok...life will continue.

[weatherwiz]

Who was it that mentioned the 700mb low?  

 

So if we were able to develop a closed circulation at 700mb much further south and off the coast, that would be better?  Right now, the GFS (18z run) developed a closed circulation over NH/ME

[CoastalWx]

Who was it that mentioned the 700mb low?  

 

So if we were able to develop a closed circulation at 700mb much further south and off the coast, that would be better?  Right now, the GFS (18z run) developed a closed circulation over NH/ME

 

The 700 low would further enhance lift and the CCB to help at least dynamically cool the column. However, this would also argue the 850 low is even further SE with more erly flow. The whole mid level look would have to change as progged in order to achieve that.

[jamesnichols1989]

I will take my rain and run with it if Northern New England can get in on the snow action, anyways I will be traveling Wednesday, which at this point looks to be mainly rain until Springfield, MA or further west along I90.  Right now that looks like a close miss as we travel west in time before the precip arrives, there is also the chance that precip does not make it past Albany, NY even with a bombing low over ACK or CHH.  Mid level lows will be further west than surface low, but right now it looks like the main snow area is a very narrow line and mainly farther west.  So it will likely snow in Buffalo, NY and Syracuse, NY as the lake effect machine turns on in time for turkey dinner.

[weatherwiz]

The 700 low would further enhance lift and the CCB to help at least dynamically cool the column. However, this would also argue the 850 low is even further SE with more erly flow. The whole mid level look would have to change as progged in order to achieve that.

 

That is one thing that is really discouraging here b/c even at this far out timeframe, you typically don't see models back off to much with their outputs of these larger scale features.  Smaller features yes but for a model or models to completely change their mid level look at this range...that doesn't happen all too much.  

[Damage In Tolland]

Well 3 short days ago it was talked about that today and tomorrow we would be driving around in warmth with arms slung out windows. Instead we had a cold rainy day and temps tomorrow stay in the 30's across the high terrain. Just don't lock anything in is lesson learned

[weatherwiz]

Oh man...I was just looking at some forecast soundings down this way and they are crazy warm in the mid levels from 900 to just above 700

[weatherwiz]

Well 3 short days ago it was talked about that today and tomorrow we would be driving around in warmth with arms slung out windows. Instead we had a cold rainy day and temps tomorrow stay in the 30's across the high terrain. Just don't lock anything in is lesson learned

 

Today turned out great.  When I left Hartford around 1:07 it was cloudy but brightening skies and when I got off the bus in front of my house the sun was partially out and it wasn't cold.  Even this morning wasn't that cold when I went to school and that was around 7:22

[jamesnichols1989]

I remember before the NYC snow bomb on December 25-26th 2010 Boxing Day Blizzard, we had questions about a certain aspect of the models called convective feedback issues.  Is it possible that given this time of year and the amount of cold air incoming for Turkey Day, that the models are over doing the convective feedback from the Gulf of Mexico?

[jamesnichols1989]

18z GFS has 850mb temps stay below 0C throughout the period after Thanksgiving.  Very cold setup occurring on the 18z GFS through the first week of December.

[Damage In Tolland]

Today turned out great. When I left Hartford around 1:07 it was cloudy but brightening skies and when I got off the bus in front of my house the sun was partially out and it wasn't cold. Even this morning wasn't that cold when I went to school and that was around 7:22

Never had an oz or ray of sun here. Socked in low clouds and fog all afternoon. High of 46.4

[CoastalWx]

Well 3 short days ago it was talked about that today and tomorrow we would be driving around in warmth with arms slung out windows. Instead we had a cold rainy day and temps tomorrow stay in the 30's across the high terrain. Just don't lock anything in is lesson learned

 

I don't think anybody locked anything in.

[N. OF PIKE]

I remember before the NYC snow bomb on December 25-26th 2010 Boxing Day Blizzard, we had questions about a certain aspect of the models called convective feedback issues. Is it possible that given this time of year and the amount of cold air incoming for Turkey Day, that the models are over doing the convective feedback from the Gulf of Mexico?

That was the best model bust ever regardless of some in the region are sad they didnt get a foot from a storm that was suppose to give them nothing 48 hrs prior

[powderfreak]

Well 3 short days ago it was talked about that today and tomorrow we would be driving around in warmth with arms slung out windows. Instead we had a cold rainy day and temps tomorrow stay in the 30's across the high terrain. Just don't lock anything in is lesson learned

 

Yep and I think everyone has said that at least once today, if not multiple times.  Definitely save this and re-post next time we are locking in snow events multiple days out. 

[jamesnichols1989]

That was the best model bust ever regardless of some in the region are sad they didnt get a foot from a storm that was suppose to give them nothing 48 hrs prior

 

Before that was an even bigger bust where New England was supposed to be dry and cold, but 48 hours later on the models, maybe the day of the storm, we ended up getting 13.5" of snow on December 20th 2010.  The great snow bomb of 2010 (December 25-26th 2010) was forecasted to miss SNE about 36-48 hours out because of convective feedback issues with the models, many of us on here thought the storm would come further west given overall synoptic layout and potential for convective feedback issues regarding the convection that developed in the deep south, instead the storm ended up tucked into Long Island, NY and brought a change to rain for a lot in eastern SNE.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

  Right now the range of options goes from so warm that its a rain/snow mix, to partly sunny.  I would lean more towards this slipping eastward over westward, so variably cloudy up here looks like a good forecast, lol.  You probably are in just as good a spot in NW MA, especially if it tickles east over the next few days.

 

It would be hilarious if this ends up just exiting the coast with little to no fanfare.  That's still a very viable option.

 

The E and ots option is the one I've been leaning towards since Wed. but that's just my feeling based on how the GFS had been trending early in the week.  You'll be mostly sunny and smoking cirrus while we enjoy and overcast day here.

[ice1972]

I remember before the NYC snow bomb on December 25-26th 2010 Boxing Day Blizzard, we had questions about a certain aspect of the models called convective feedback issues. Is it possible that given this time of year and the amount of cold air incoming for Turkey Day, that the models are over doing the convective feedback from the Gulf of Mexico?

That storm blew here in west Hartford....however what happened after into the end of January was epic.....at one point at the beginning if feb or so I had 3' of pack....highest its ever been....my banks were over the top high....no pun sorry

[jamesnichols1989]

With the Snow bomb of 2010 there was a trailing shortwave in the central Plains that was the difference maker in the final 48 hours.  Models initially by hour 72 had the backside of the trough shortwave arriving too late to save the day to change the trough to a neutral to negative tilt, instead the models were off in timing and the speed of the shortwave increased leading to a stronger influence on the trough, I think the lead shortwave in regards to our potential storm for wednesday could actually speed up further allowing cold air to surge southward and lead to a better mid level troughing set up.  The 700mb low sets up too far north to impact SNE in terms of precip type and development, so right now shortwave intervention at H5 levels could lead to a better snow scenario for even those on the coast, but I see this as the best bet right now for snow on the coast.  I'm not saying it will happen this way, but its a potential scenario we have to take into account.

[jamesnichols1989]

The best snow pack I have ever had is a tie between February 2003 and January 2005, both periods brought 36"+ of snow pack to most of Cape Cod, MA.  We probably need our own climatological site for us on the Cape since BOS, PVD, ORH, and Springfield don't relay our climo.

[weatherwiz]

Scott,

 

For haha's and b/c I am doing a writeup on the storm potential and b/c I don't have access to better Euro idea yet, how are the mid levels in terms of temps compared to the GFS for like 108-132 HR?  Are they warmer than the GFS, colder, similar?  

[N. OF PIKE]

Well i mean since we are snow lovers it makes sense to take the time to mention what we need to see change in order for a snowier solution winning out. We can't change the wx so if it doesn't happen , we are not jumping off a cliff. But instead , lets continue to give SOME focus on what we need to see models do in order to get snow . That is not weenie'ism it is basic discussion, especially when we are reminded every 5'th post not to get excited. Lol.

If we need to see the 7H low close off further sw what do we need to see from either stream to get this to happen.

What are the different options wrt to northern /southern stream change /interaction a slower a stream , a stronger northern stream impulse ?

[Tropopause_Fold]

Well 3 short days ago it was talked about that today and tomorrow we would be driving around in warmth with arms slung out windows. Instead we had a cold rainy day and temps tomorrow stay in the 30's across the high terrain. Just don't lock anything in is lesson learned

[CoastalWx]

Scott,

 

For haha's and b/c I am doing a writeup on the storm potential and b/c I don't have access to better Euro idea yet, how are the mid levels in terms of temps compared to the GFS for like 108-132 HR?  Are they warmer than the GFS, colder, similar?  

 

Actually the 12z euro and 18z gfs have similar temps at 850 until Wednesday evening when the GFS begins to blow up the low and wrap warmer air back inland.